Barrick Mining Corporation (NYSE: B, TSX: ABX) Stock Soars on North American Gold IPO Plan – Latest News, Analyst Targets and 2025

Updated: December 2, 2025

Barrick Mining Corporation stock has surged back to levels not seen in more than a decade as the gold miner rides record bullion prices, activist pressure and a newly announced plan to float its premier North American gold assets in a separate vehicle.

Below is a detailed look at all the key news, forecasts and analyses since December 1, 2025, plus what they may mean for investors looking at Barrick Mining (still widely searched under its former name Barrick Gold).

Key takeaways

Barrick will explore an IPO of a new company (“NewCo”) that would hold its top North American gold assets, including Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo and the Fourmile discovery. Barrick intends to keep a controlling stake. ^[1]
The news sent Barrick’s U.S. shares up about 2–4% on December 1, with the NYSE-listed stock closing around $42.33, near a fresh 52‑week high of $43.08, and the TSX listing (ABX) also advancing. ^[2]
Gold futures are trading near record highs around $4,300/oz after a 6.5% jump in November, and gold demand in Q3 hit record levels, giving powerful macro tailwinds to gold miners like Barrick. ^[3]
Barrick recently reported record Q3 2025 earnings and free cash flow, raised its base dividend by 25%, expanded its buyback program by $500 million, and now sits in a net cash position. ^[4]
Activist investor Elliott Management has built a stake of at least $700 million, pushing for a split between North American operations and higher‑risk mines elsewhere, adding a major corporate action angle. ^[5]
Wall Street analysts are broadly bullish: consensus 12‑month price targets cluster in the mid‑$40s, implying mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside from current levels – but quantitative models like CoinCodex project a potential 15% pullback over the next year even as near‑term technicals stay bullish. ^[6]

December 1–2, 2025: What exactly did Barrick announce?

On December 1, 2025, Barrick’s board unanimously authorized management to explore an initial public offering of a subsidiary that would hold its “premier North American Gold Assets,” collectively branded as NewCo. ^[7]

According to Barrick’s own press release and follow‑up reporting:

Assets inside NewCo
NewCo would be anchored by:
- Barrick’s interests in Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) – the world’s largest gold producing complex, jointly owned with Newmont. ^[8]
- Barrick’s stake in Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic. ^[9]
- The 100%‑owned Fourmile discovery in Nevada, described by management as one of this century’s most significant gold finds. ^[10]
Structure of the IPO
- Barrick is contemplating listing only a minority stake in NewCo through an IPO.
- Barrick would retain a “significant controlling majority interest”, keeping economic and strategic control. ^[11]
- A source quoted by Reuters says advisers Goldman Sachs and Klein & Co. have been hired and that a New York listing is under consideration. ^[12]
Timing and communication
- Management has been authorized to explore this “value creation initiative” through early 2026.
- Barrick expects to update the market at its full‑year 2025 results in February 2026. ^[13]
- Any IPO is subject to board approval, regulatory sign‑offs and market conditions – there is no guarantee it will happen. ^[14]

Interim CEO Mark Hill framed the move as a way to give investors a pure‑play North American gold company with growth, without abandoning Barrick’s broader gold and copper growth pipeline in other regions. ^[15]

Market reaction: Barrick stock near multi‑year highs

The IPO news landed into a gold market already on fire:

Gold futures rose 6.5% in November, trading near a record around $4,285/oz, capping what looks set to be gold’s best year since 1979. ^[16]
Q3 2025 gold demand hit about 1,313 tonnes, with average prices around $3,456/oz and spikes above $4,400/oz in October, driven by central bank buying, ETF inflows and safe‑haven demand. ^[17]

Against that backdrop:

Reuters reported U.S.‑listed Barrick shares were up about 3.7% in premarket trading on December 1; TSX‑listed ABX opened 1.4% higher. ^[18]
TradingView flagged the announcement with a “Key facts” note, highlighting that Barrick’s North American IPO news drove 1.5–1.8% gains as gold prices hit a six‑week high on growing expectations of U.S. rate cuts. ^[19]
Barron’s reported that Barrick shares were among gold miners jumping in premarket trading, with the stock up roughly 4% as investors digested the IPO plan and fresh records in gold. ^[20]

By the close on December 1:

Barrick Mining (NYSE: B) finished around $42.33, up about 2.4% on the day, with an intraday high of $43.08, right at its 52‑week peak (52‑week range: $15.11–$43.08). ^[21]
The company’s market cap now sits near $70.6 billion, with:
- Trailing EPS: ~$2.08
- Trailing P/E: ~20.3×
- Forward P/E: ~13.4×
- Dividend yield: ~1.2% on an indicated annual dividend of about $0.52 per share
- Beta: ~0.32 (historically less volatile than the broader market, though still tied to commodity swings). ^[22]

Year‑to‑date, various media estimates suggest Barrick shares are up well over 100%, with Axios putting the gain at roughly 140% since early December 2024, beating gold’s own ~60% rise, and Barron’s citing a ~167% advance in 2025 for the stock. ^[23]

MarketBeat, in a December 1 “Top Gold Stocks to Research” piece, highlighted Barrick alongside Newmont, Agnico Eagle and others as one of the gold names with the highest dollar trading volume, underlining how central B has become in the gold‑stock trade. ^[24]

Why launch NewCo now? Gold, risk, and activist pressure

The NewCo IPO does not come out of nowhere – it’s the product of market conditions, past M&A, and rising shareholder activism.

1. Reversing parts of the Randgold era

Reuters notes that carving out a North American‑focused NewCo would partially reverse Barrick’s 2019 merger with Randgold Resources, which knit together world‑class assets across North America and higher‑risk regions in Africa and Asia. ^[25]

With gold at record highs, investors have pushed Barrick to use the boom to:

Highlight the value of low‑risk, tier‑one assets like Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo; and
Reduce exposure to higher‑risk jurisdictions (e.g. Mali, Papua New Guinea, parts of Pakistan) or at least separate their valuation from the North American business. ^[26]

2. Elliott Management enters the chat

In mid‑November, Elliott Management quietly built a stake worth at least $700 million, putting the activist among Barrick’s top ten investors. ^[27]

According to Benzinga and Wall Street Journal coverage:

Elliott sees an opportunity to split Barrick into two companies:
- A faster‑growing, lower‑risk North American vehicle, and
- A company holding more geopolitically complex mines in Africa, Latin America and Asia. ^[28]
The activist’s thesis is that the North American portfolio, particularly Fourmile and Nevada Gold Mines, is not fully reflected in Barrick’s consolidated valuation.

The December 1 IPO announcement lines up closely with those activist ideas, though Barrick has framed the move as part of its own ongoing portfolio review.

3. Cleaner story for investors (and maybe for Newmont)

Analysts quoted by Reuters argue that NewCo would “package up the parts of Barrick the market is most excited about” into a focused North American company that could eventually become an acquisition target for Newmont, Barrick’s partner in Nevada Gold Mines. ^[29]

In other words:

NewCo could trade on its own merits as a jurisdictionally attractive, growth‑oriented gold vehicle, potentially attracting a higher multiple.
Old Barrick would keep its global gold and expanding copper portfolio, including major projects like Lumwana in Zambia and Reko Diq in Pakistan, both key to the company’s target of 30% production growth by 2030. ^[30]

Under the hood: earnings, cash flow and balance sheet

The IPO story lands atop a strong fundamental backdrop.

Record Q3 2025 results

In its Q3 2025 release (Nov. 10), Barrick reported: ^[31]

Revenue: $4.15 billion, up 23% year‑on‑year.
Net earnings: $1.30 billion vs. $483 million a year ago (+170%).
Adjusted net earnings: $982 million, up 86% year‑on‑year.
Free cash flow: $1.48 billion in Q3 alone, a ~3× jump from the prior‑year quarter.
EBITDA margin: 59% vs. 46% a year earlier, reflecting the leverage to higher gold and copper prices.

Operationally:

Gold production was 829,000 ounces in Q3, down from 943,000 ounces a year earlier as some mines cycled lower grades.
Copper production rose to 55,000 tonnes from 48,000 tonnes, as Barrick continues to ramp its copper operations. ^[32]

Full‑year 2025 guidance calls for: ^[33]

Gold: 3.15–3.50 million ounces.
Copper: 200–230 thousand tonnes – S&P Global estimates this would represent about 12% year‑on‑year growth in copper output with revenue from copper up nearly 30% on 2024 levels.

Dividend and buyback upgrades

On the same day as Q3 results, Barrick made two shareholder‑friendly moves: ^[34]

Base quarterly dividend raised by 25% to $0.125 per share.
For Q3 2025, Barrick declared a total dividend of $0.175 per share, including a $0.05 “performance dividend,” payable December 15, 2025 to shareholders of record on November 28.

The company also:

Repurchased ~39.8 million shares under its 2025 buyback program, representing about 2.3% of shares outstanding, for $1.0 billion in cash.
Expanded that buyback program by another $500 million, citing strong cash generation and management’s view that the shares sometimes trade below intrinsic value. ^[35]

Balance sheet strength

Barrick ended Q3 with: ^[36]

Cash & equivalents: ~$5.0 billion
Total debt: ~$4.7 billion
Net cash position: about $0.3 billion, versus net debt of ~$0.5 billion a year earlier

This net‑cash balance triggers the “performance dividend” top‑up under Barrick’s policy and gives the company room to:

Fund growth projects in copper and gold,
Continue dividends and buybacks, and
Consider portfolio actions like the proposed NewCo IPO.

Legal and geopolitical overhangs: Mali dispute resolved

One big risk item has recently improved.

In late November, Barrick announced it had resolved its disputes with the Malian government over the Loulo‑Gounkoto complex: ^[37]

All legal charges against Barrick, its affiliates and four detained employees will be dropped.
The provisional administration of Loulo‑Gounkoto will end, and operational control returns to Barrick.
Barrick’s subsidiaries will withdraw arbitration claims previously filed at ICSID.

Reuters noted that the Mali dispute had earlier contributed to a $1‑billion write‑off and was one factor behind CEO Mark Bristow’s sudden exit in September. ^[38]

This settlement removes an immediate legal overhang, though Barrick still operates in numerous jurisdictions with elevated political risk, including parts of Africa, Papua New Guinea and Pakistan.

Name change, CEO transition and board moves

If you’re confused by the ticker and company name, you’re not alone.

In May 2025, Barrick changed its corporate name from “Barrick Gold Corporation” to “Barrick Mining Corporation”, reflecting a growing copper business. The NYSE ticker switched from GOLD to B, while the TSX ticker ABX stayed the same. ^[39]
On September 29, 2025, Barrick appointed Mark Hill as Group COO and Interim President & CEO, following Mark Bristow’s departure. The board is working with an executive search firm to identify a permanent CEO. ^[40]
On November 26, 2025, Barrick announced that former Shell CEO Ben van Beurden stepped down from the board, part of broader governance changes unfolding alongside the activist campaign and strategic review. ^[41]

These shifts suggest a company still in transition at the top, which can be both a risk (leadership uncertainty) and a catalyst (scope for strategic reset).

What are analysts and models saying about Barrick stock now?

Wall Street price targets and ratings

Across several sources, human analysts are generally optimistic:

StockAnalysis (covering NYSE:B) shows:
- Consensus rating: Strong Buy (6 analysts).
- 12‑month average target:$44, implying about 4% upside from the Dec. 1 close of $42.33. ^[42]
MarketBeat aggregates around 19 analyst targets for Barrick, with:
- Average price target: ≈ $45.7.
- High target: around $57.
- Low target: around $38. ^[43]
Fintel calculates an average target near $43.6, with a broad range from about $25 to $52 per share, reflecting both bullish and cautious houses. ^[44]

On the single‑broker side:

UBS reiterated its “Buy” rating in October 2025, lifting its target from $35 to $39 as gold and copper prices rose and Barrick’s cash‑flow profile improved. ^[45]

In plain English: most brokers see modest further upside from here, but not another 2× in the near term unless gold continues to explode higher or the NewCo structure unlocks additional value.

Quantitative and technical forecasts

On the algorithmic/technical side, the picture is more mixed:

CoinCodex (still referencing the old GOLD ticker) recently updated its model to project: ^[46]
- End‑of‑2025 price: ~$21.4 for GOLD (pre‑rebrand), just a couple of percent above its last quote there.
- 1‑year forecast: ~$17.9, implying a –15.4% drop over the next 12 months.
- 2030 forecast: ~$23.0, only ~9% above current levels.
- Short term: technical sentiment “Bullish,” with 17 green days out of 30 and most moving averages pointing higher.

The quant model essentially says:

Near‑term momentum looks good, but the risk of a sizable pullback over the next year is significant, especially after such a powerful run.

Technical risk is underscored by Barrick’s own 30‑day volatility metrics (CoinCodex pegs it around 5–6%), even though the long‑term beta vs the S&P 500 is ~0.3. ^[47]

How independent analysts are framing the story

Recent in‑depth pieces on Barrick include:

A Seeking Alpha article titled “Barrick Mining: Still Undervalued Despite Record FCF, Mali Agreement, CEO Change, And Activist Involvement” argues that: ^[48]
- Barrick’s record free cash flow,
- The resolution of Mali disputes,
- Ongoing dividends and buybacks, and
- The potential NewCo spin
  leave the stock still undervalued versus its Tier One asset base and long‑term growth pipeline.
Another analysis, “The Gold Miners Crushing Bullion,” points out that miners like Barrick have outperformed gold itself in 2025 as investors reward operational leverage and capital discipline, but warns that any reversal in gold prices would hit miners disproportionately on the way down as well. ^[49]
The Motley Fool’s recent piece “Why Shares of Barrick Mining Jumped Close to 12% This Week” emphasizes the combination of rising production, stronger gold prices, dividend hikes and share repurchases, positioning Barrick as a leading way to play the gold cycle – albeit with the usual cyclical and geopolitical risks. ^[50]

Taken together, the qualitative analyst community tends to view Barrick as:

A high‑quality, cash‑generative gold and copper major,
Currently benefitting from a very favorable macro backdrop,
With corporate action optionality (activism + IPO),
But also trading closer to fair value after its huge 2025 rally, especially if gold prices relax.

Main risks investors should keep in mind

Even with all the good news, Barrick Mining stock is not risk‑free:

Gold and copper price risk
- The stock’s earnings and cash flow are highly leveraged to gold and copper prices. A normalization of gold from ~record levels toward long‑term averages could compress margins and valuation quickly. ^[51]
Execution and IPO uncertainty
- The NewCo IPO is only being evaluated – it could be delayed, restructured or abandoned.
- Even if it proceeds, there’s no guarantee that the market will afford NewCo a higher multiple than Barrick’s current blended valuation. ^[52]
Geopolitical and regulatory exposure
- Despite progress in Mali, Barrick still operates in multiple complex jurisdictions, where changes in tax regimes, regulations or political control could affect mine economics. ^[53]
Leadership transition and activist pressure
- The search for a permanent CEO and the presence of Elliott Management mean strategic change is very likely, which can be positive but also adds uncertainty about the long‑term shape of the company. ^[54]
Valuation after a huge run
- With the stock up more than 100% year‑to‑date and near its 52‑week highs, margin of safety is thinner than it was earlier in the year.
- Quant models projecting a potential 10–15% 12‑month drawdown highlight the risk that investors might be buying late in the cycle if gold cools or if IPO expectations get priced in too aggressively. ^[55]

Is Barrick Mining Corporation stock a buy, hold or sell right now?

Only you can decide how Barrick fits into your portfolio, but based on news and analysis since December 1, 2025, here’s a balanced framing:

Why bulls like the stock

Leverage to record gold prices plus growing copper exposure.
Record earnings and free cash flow supporting higher dividends and accelerated buybacks. ^[56]
Net cash balance sheet, giving flexibility through cycles. ^[57]
Potential value unlock from the NewCo IPO and future portfolio restructuring, possibly catalyzed by Elliott’s activism. ^[58]
Analyst consensus pointing to further, if modest, upside, with multiple brokers rating it a Buy or Strong Buy. ^[59]

Why skeptics are cautious

The share price already reflects a lot of good news – gold at record highs, resolved litigation, dividend hikes, and activism.
The NewCo IPO could disappoint or be delayed, especially if markets turn or gold prices pull back. ^[60]
Quantitative forecasts and basic reversion logic both flag the possibility of a meaningful 1‑year drawdown after such a strong run. ^[61]
Barrick’s remaining non‑NewCo portfolio would still carry higher geopolitical risk, which may deserve a discount. ^[62]

A practical way to think about it

For many investors, Barrick at current levels looks less like a deep value play and more like:

A leveraged, high‑quality play on gold staying higher for longer,
With corporate action optionality (NewCo, possible further break‑ups, or larger M&A) as a kicker,
But where timing and position sizing matter, given how far the stock has already run.

If you’re bullish on gold prices, lower interest rates and further corporate restructuring, Barrick Mining remains one of the go‑to large‑cap names in the sector.

If you’re more cautious on gold or worried about buying cyclicals near peaks, it may make sense to:

Wait for pullbacks,
Use phased entry, or
Consider a basket of gold miners to diversify company‑specific risks.

Important disclaimer

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

References

Barrick Mining Corporation (NYSE: B, TSX: ABX) Stock Soars on North American Gold IPO Plan – Latest News, Analyst Targets and 2025–2030 Outlook