As of December 3, 2025, Barrick Mining Corporation has suddenly moved from being a “perennial underperformer” to one of the most talked‑about names in global mining. A powerful gold bull market, a proposed IPO of its North American gold assets, activist pressure from Elliott Management, and the resolution of a high‑stakes dispute in Mali have all converged in just a few weeks.
Below is a complete rundown of the latest news, forecasts and analysis up to December 3, 2025, with a focus on what it may mean for Barrick’s stock over the 2025–2030 horizon.
1. Barrick Mining Stock at a Glance (December 3, 2025)
- On the Toronto Stock Exchange, Barrick’s ABX shares recently set a new 12‑month high, trading as high as C$59.92 and last seen around C$59.88 on December 1, 2025. That implies a market cap of roughly C$100 billion, a P/E of ~28.6 and a beta of ~1.18. [1]
- According to Zacks, the New York‑listed B shares are up about 173% year‑to‑date, versus roughly 139% for the broader gold‑mining industry, helped by surging bullion prices. [2]
- The same Zacks analysis puts Barrick at a forward 12‑month P/E of ~12.8×, a modest ~4% discount to the gold‑mining peer average of ~13.4×, and assigns the stock a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with 2025 and 2026 EPS expected to grow 78.6% and 47.2% year‑over‑year, respectively. [3]
In other words, the market now prices Barrick like a high‑quality growth name in the sector, but not yet at nosebleed multiples—despite a huge rally in 2025.
2. The Big Catalyst: North American Gold Assets IPO (“NewCo”)
2.1 What Barrick Has Announced
On December 1, 2025, Barrick announced that its board has authorized management to explore an initial public offering (IPO) of a minority stake in a new company (“NewCo”) that will hold its North American gold assets. [4]
Key points from Barrick’s own release and follow‑up reporting:
- The contemplated IPO is designed to “highlight the value” of Barrick’s North American gold portfolio by creating a focused, publicly traded vehicle. [5]
- Barrick would retain a significant controlling interest in NewCo, floating only a small minority stake in the initial transaction. [6]
- Management aims to update the market on the IPO review at its full‑year 2025 results in February 2026. [7]
2.2 What Assets Are Going Into NewCo?
According to Barrick and multiple media reports, NewCo would likely bundle: [8]
- Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) – the giant JV with Newmont in Nevada, in which Barrick holds 61%
- Pueblo Viejo – the major Dominican Republic gold mine, also a joint venture with Newmont
- Fourmile – Barrick’s high‑grade discovery in Nevada (100% Barrick)
- Possibly other select North American gold interests that together represent more than half of Barrick’s gold production.
Crux Investor and others estimate that this North American package represents roughly 2 million ounces of annual production and could be worth US$40–50 billion on its own, depending on assumed gold prices and peer multiples. [9]
Some Wall Street coverage suggests a potential valuation of up to US$56 billion for the NewCo entity, with analysts modeling 19–32% upside for Barrick stock if the market grants NewCo a premium rating. [10]
2.3 Why the Spin‑Off Matters for the Stock
Analysts and commentators highlight several potential benefits:
- Multiple expansion: North American, low‑risk gold assets often trade at higher valuation multiples than global portfolios with significant exposure to Africa or frontier markets. Spinning them out may unlock value that is currently “blended away” inside Barrick’s diversified footprint. [11]
- Clearer story for investors: Investors who want pure‑play North American gold can buy NewCo; those comfortable with higher‑risk jurisdictions and more copper can own Barrick “OldCo.” [12]
- M&A optionality: NewCo could eventually become an attractive acquisition target for Newmont or Agnico Eagle, given shared JVs and regional synergies. [13]
But there are also important caveats:
- The IPO is only under evaluation—it can be delayed, restructured or dropped entirely if markets or gold prices turn. [14]
- Even if it proceeds, there’s no guarantee the market will award NewCo a dramatically higher multiple than Barrick’s already‑elevated valuation after a huge 2025 run. TS2 Tech+1
3. Activist Elliott Management and a Changing Boardroom
3.1 Elliott’s $700 Million Stake
In mid‑November, activist hedge fund Elliott Investment Management disclosed a stake worth at least US$700 million in Barrick, placing it among the miner’s top ten shareholders. [15]
According to reports in the Financial Times, Reuters and others, Elliott is: [16]
- Encouraged by the prospect of a break‑up into:
- A North American–focused vehicle, and
- A separate company holding higher‑risk assets in Africa, Latin America and Asia.
- Seen as a catalyst behind the accelerated review of strategic alternatives, including the NewCo IPO and potential further asset sales.
This aligns with analysis from TS2 and other outlets suggesting that the NewCo plan closely mirrors the structure activists have been advocating. TS2 Tech+1
3.2 CEO Transition and Governance Moves
Barrick’s corporate reshuffle is another key part of the story:
- On September 29, 2025, CEO Mark Bristow unexpectedly resigned; veteran executive Mark Hill was appointed interim president and CEO. [17]
- Earlier in 2025, shareholders approved rebranding from Barrick Gold Corporation to Barrick Mining Corporation, and the NYSE ticker switched from GOLD to B (TSX ticker ABX remains unchanged). [18]
- The board has been refreshed with heavyweight industrial names such as former Shell CEO Ben van Beurden and former Metso and Finnair CEO Pekka Vauramo, though van Beurden has since stepped down as part of a broader governance reset. [19]
Taken together, the Elliott stake, leadership change and strategic review signal that Barrick is mid‑transformation, not just riding the gold cycle.
4. Financial Performance: Record Cash Flow in 2025
4.1 Q1 2025: Name Change and a Strong Start
Barrick’s Q1 2025 results set the tone for the year: [20]
- Average realized gold price: US$2,898/oz, up ~40% year‑on‑year.
- Net EPS: US$0.27 (+59% YoY).
- Adjusted EPS: US$0.35 (+84% YoY).
- Operating cash flow: US$1.2 billion (+59% YoY).
- Free cash flow: US$375 million, driving a 5% reduction in net debt in just one quarter.
The company:
- Declared a US$0.10 quarterly dividend.
- Repurchased ~US$143 million of stock.
- Reaffirmed its goal to grow gold‑equivalent production by ~30% by 2030, anchored by major copper‑gold projects like Reko Diq (Pakistan) and Lumwana (Zambia). [21]
- Formalized the name change to Barrick Mining and NYSE ticker switch to B, explicitly underscoring its ambition to be a leading gold and copper producer. [22]
4.2 Q3 2025: Record Earnings and Free Cash Flow
The real inflection came with Q3 2025 results, released on November 10: [23]
- Gold production: 829,000 oz
- Up 4% vs Q2 but down from 943,000 oz a year ago as some mines cycled lower grades. [24]
- Copper production: 55,000 tonnes, roughly in line with plan and up from 48,000 tonnes in Q3 2024. [25]
- All‑in sustaining costs (AISC):
- Gold AISC of US$1,538/oz, down 9% vs Q2, expanding margins. [26]
- Operating cash flow: Record US$2.4 billion.
- Free cash flow: Record US$1.5 billion, up 274% vs the prior quarter. [27]
- Net earnings: US$1.3 billion (US$0.76 per share) vs US$483 million (US$0.28) a year earlier.
- Adjusted net earnings: US$982 million (US$0.58 per share) vs US$529 million (US$0.30) YoY. [28]
Full‑year 2025 guidance remains: TS2 Tech
- 3.15–3.50 million oz of gold.
- 200–230 thousand tonnes of copper (roughly 12% year‑on‑year growth in copper volumes, with copper revenue expected to climb ~30% vs 2024).
4.3 Dividends, Buybacks and Balance Sheet Strength
Alongside Q3 results, Barrick announced significant shareholder‑friendly moves: TS2 Tech+1
- Base quarterly dividend increased 25% to US$0.125 per share.
- Total Q3 dividend of US$0.175 per share, including a “performance dividend” top‑up, payable December 15, 2025.
- Share buybacks: ~39.8 million shares repurchased in 2025 for about US$1.0 billion, representing ~2.3% of shares outstanding.
- Buyback authorization expanded by another US$500 million.
- Ended Q3 with about US$5 billion in cash versus US$4.7 billion in total debt, putting Barrick in a modest net cash position. TS2 Tech+1
This balance‑sheet strength is crucial: it underpins the NewCo IPO option, continued dividends and buybacks, and multi‑billion‑dollar growth projects—all at once.
5. Portfolio Reset: Tongon, Hemlo and Other Divestments
Barrick has been systematically pruning non‑core or higher‑cost operations.
5.1 Hemlo Mine Sale (Canada)
On December 2, 2025, Zacks/Nasdaq reported that Barrick completed the divestment of the Hemlo gold mine in Canada to Carcetti Capital Corp. for up to US$1.09 billion: [29]
- Consideration includes:
- US$875 million in cash,
- US$50 million in Hemlo Mining Corp. shares,
- Up to US$165 million in price‑linked and production‑linked payments from 2027–2031.
- Hemlo produced 143,000 oz of gold in 2024 and was Barrick’s last operating mine in Canada, though the company retains Canadian exploration and early‑stage projects. [30]
5.2 Tongon Mine Sale (Côte d’Ivoire)
In October, Barrick agreed to sell its Tongon gold mine and exploration properties in Côte d’Ivoire to Atlantic Group for up to US$305 million, including a US$192 million upfront cash component and further contingent payments. [31]
On December 2, Barrick announced it had completed the Tongon transaction, while Appian Capital Advisory issued a separate release noting it will provide US$150 million of financing to Atlantic Group to support the buyout. [32]
5.3 Other Asset Sales
Earlier in 2025, Barrick also: [33]
- Sold its 50% interest in the Donlin Gold project in Alaska for US$1 billion.
- Completed the sale of the Alturas project in Chile.
- In the last several years, exited Kalgoorlie (Australia), Massawa (Senegal) and Lagunas Norte (Peru).
These disposals funnel capital into higher‑return Tier One assets and help fund both dividends and buybacks without stretching the balance sheet.
6. Mali Dispute Resolution: Removing a Key Overhang
Barrick’s disputes with the Government of Mali over the Loulo‑Gounkoto complex have been one of the largest geopolitical risks in the story.
- In early 2025, Mali imposed an attachment order on gold shipments from Loulo‑Gounkoto, seized gold at site and eventually placed the complex under provisional administration, restricting Barrick’s ability to export and book revenue. [34]
- The mine complex historically contributed around 15% of Barrick’s gold output, so the impact was material. [35]
On November 24, 2025, Barrick announced a comprehensive settlement: [36]
- All legal disputes with Mali over Loulo‑Gounkoto are to be resolved.
- Mali will drop criminal charges and work to release four detained Barrick employees.
- Barrick will withdraw its World Bank arbitration case and make a settlement payment reported at about US$430 million (roughly 244 billion CFA francs), with a mix of immediate and staged payments. [37]
- Provisional administration ends and operational control returns to Barrick. [38]
Reuters noted that Toronto‑listed ABX shares jumped about 8.5% to an all‑time high around C$55.93 on the news, underlining how important Mali was as an overhang. [39]
For investors, the settlement cleans up a major political‑risk headline just as Barrick pivots toward a more “North America‑centric” structure.
7. Analyst Ratings, Targets and Quant Models
7.1 Human Analysts: Generally Bullish, But Not Euphoric
Broker and aggregation data as of early December 2025 show:
- On the TSX (ABX), MarketBeat counts 6 Strong Buy, 7 Buy and 1 Hold ratings, equating to an average rating of “Buy” with a consensus target of about C$50.50. [40]
- StockAnalysis coverage of NYSE: B (summarized in TS2) shows a “Strong Buy” consensus (6 analysts) and an average 12‑month target around US$44, only about 4% above the December 1 close of US$42.33. TS2 Tech
- MarketBeat’s U.S. aggregation points to an average target near US$45–46, with a range roughly US$38–57 per share. TS2 Tech+1
- UBS recently reiterated a Buy rating, lifting its target from US$35 to US$39 on improved cash flow and commodity prices. TS2 Tech
Over at Zacks, the stock is rated a Rank #3 (Hold) despite its high Value Score, with analysts acknowledging the huge 2025 rally while still modeling strong earnings growth into 2026. [41]
Several narrative pieces (Simply Wall St, Yahoo Finance) emphasize that with 1‑year total shareholder returns in the ~145–156% range, Barrick now trades close to or slightly above some analyst fair‑value estimates, prompting questions about how much upside is left without another leg higher in gold. [42]
7.2 Technical and Quantitative Models: Bullish But Overbought
Technical/AI‑driven platforms provide an interesting contrast:
- Intellectia AI (still referencing the GOLD symbol) flags 10 bullish vs 4 bearish technical signals, with all major moving averages (short, medium and long term) trending up and the 20‑day SMA above the 60‑day SMA, indicating a strong uptrend. However, the RSI (~83) and other oscillators sit firmly in overbought territory, warning of short‑term correction risk. [43]
- StockInvest characterizes Barrick (GOLD) as a “hold/accumulate” candidate: positive signals, but not yet enough conviction for a clear buy after the big move. [44]
- As summarized in TS2, CoinCodex‑style quant models (still on the legacy GOLD ticker) project:
- Very modest gains or slight downside over 12 months, and
- Only modest appreciation through 2030, reflecting mean‑reversion assumptions after such a strong year. TS2 Tech
Bottom line: momentum indicators are hot, but many models see limited near‑term upside and even a non‑trivial risk of a 10–15% pullback if enthusiasm cools.
8. Macro Backdrop: $5,000 Gold and the Copper Angle
Barrick’s fortunes are tightly bound to bullion and copper prices.
8.1 Gold: Multi‑Year Bull Market
Gold has been in a powerful bull trend:
- Spot gold recently traded around US$4,200/oz, near record territory. [45]
- Silver has surged to record highs near US$57.9/oz, part of a broader “hard assets” rotation. [46]
- A Goldman Sachs–co‑ordinated poll and other bank research suggest gold could reach US$4,400–4,900/oz by the end of 2026, with JPMorgan even modeling levels above US$5,000/oz as central banks keep buying and investors diversify away from the U.S. dollar. [47]
For Q1 2025, Barrick realized an average gold price of US$2,898/oz, already 40% higher than a year earlier—a huge tailwind for margins and free cash flow. [48]
8.2 Copper: Growing Second Engine
Barrick is increasingly positioning itself as a gold‑and‑copper major:
- Q3 2025 copper production was 55,000 tonnes, and year‑to‑date copper output was 21% higher than in the first nine months of 2024, with costs per pound falling materially. [49]
- The company is pouring capital into Lumwana (Zambia) and Reko Diq (Pakistan) to build what it calls a “substantial copper business” capable of supporting its targeted 30% growth in gold‑equivalent ounces by 2030. [50]
If the consensus around structurally higher copper demand (EVs, renewables, data centers) proves correct, Barrick’s copper exposure could become a more meaningful driver of valuation, beyond the gold narrative.
9. Key Risks Investors Should Watch
Even with the flood of good news, Barrick Mining stock is not risk‑free. Recent analyses (including TS2, Crux Investor and others) emphasize several themes: TS2 Tech+2cruxinvestor.com+2
- Gold and copper price risk
- Earnings and cash flow are highly leveraged to commodity prices. A pullback from current near‑record levels toward long‑term averages could compress margins and P/E multiples quickly.
- Execution and IPO risk
- The NewCo IPO is not guaranteed. It may be delayed, changed or cancelled.
- Even if it goes ahead, there’s a risk that NewCo commands only a modest premium, limiting the value unlock relative to current expectations. [51]
- Geopolitical and regulatory exposure
- Although the Mali dispute is resolved, Barrick still operates in complex jurisdictions (parts of Africa, Papua New Guinea, Pakistan), where tax, license and security risks remain elevated. [52]
- Leadership transition and activist pressure
- With Mark Hill as interim CEO and Elliott in the shareholder base, Barrick is in a fluid strategic phase. That can be positive (value‑creating deals) but also adds uncertainty about the ultimate structure and capital‑allocation priorities. [53]
- Valuation and technical overextension
- The stock is up well over 100% in 2025; RSI and other indicators are flashing overbought. [54]
- Quant models highlight the possibility of a 10–15% 12‑month drawdown after such a big run, even in a constructive long‑term scenario. TS2 Tech+1
10. 2025–2030 Outlook: How Analysts Frame Barrick Mining Stock
Putting it all together, recent in‑depth pieces (TS2, Crux Investor, Seeking Alpha summaries, Motley Fool and others) tend to converge on a similar picture: Financial Times+3TS2 Tech+3cruxinvestor.com+3
The bullish case:
- Barrick is now a cash‑generating machine with record earnings and free cash flow and a net cash balance sheet.
- It offers leveraged exposure to a multi‑year bull market in gold plus growing copper upside.
- Dividends and buybacks are rising, with a performance‑linked capital‑return framework.
- The Mali settlement, divestment of non‑core assets (Hemlo, Tongon, Donlin, etc.), and the North American IPO option give the company multiple avenues to unlock further value.
- Analyst consensus is broadly Buy or Strong Buy, with modest further upside baked into 12‑month targets.
The cautious case:
- A large part of the “good news” (record gold, Mali resolution, dividend hikes, activist involvement, IPO talk) is arguably already reflected in the share price after a spectacular rally.
- The NewCo IPO might underwhelm if markets cool or if gold pulls back, especially given execution complexity and the need to keep both “Old Barrick” and NewCo investable.
- Remaining assets post‑spin may carry higher geopolitical risk, potentially justifying a lower multiple on the residual company.
- Short‑term traders need to be comfortable with volatility and the very real possibility of sharp drawdowns if macro narratives shift.
For many investors, that means Barrick Mining in late 2025 is less a deep‑value contrarian bet and more a high‑quality, leveraged play on “gold staying higher for longer,” with corporate‑action optionality as a bonus. Position sizing, time horizon and confidence in long‑term gold and copper prices become the key questions.
Important: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
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