Barrick Mining Corporation Stock (NYSE: B, TSX: ABX) in Focus as Gold Breaks $4,400: Mali Restart, IPO Review, and 2026 Outlook (22.12.2025)

December 22, 2025 — Barrick Mining Corporation stock is ending the year with a rare triple tailwind: a fresh record in gold prices, a major geopolitical overhang easing in Mali, and an ongoing strategic shake-up that could materially change how the market values the company’s North American assets.

Gold pushed through $4,400 per ounce for the first time on Monday, underscoring why miners have suddenly become the financial markets’ unlikely main characters again—part inflation hedge, part “rates are coming down” trade, part geopolitical insurance policy. ^[1]

For Barrick (ticker B in New York and ABX in Toronto), that commodity backdrop matters more than almost anything. But the stock story in late 2025 isn’t just about the gold price. It’s also about operational resets, capital returns, and whether Barrick’s board is preparing to repackage the business into something investors can value more cleanly.

Where Barrick stock stands entering the holiday week

Barrick shares are hovering near the top of their recent trading range. The last full U.S. market close before the new week showed the stock around the mid-$40s, after a strong 2025 run. ^[2]

Market data compiled in filings and market summaries also places Barrick’s 12‑month range roughly in the mid-teens to mid‑$40s, reflecting how violently sentiment swung during the Mali dispute and then reversed as gold surged. ^[3]

The big macro driver today: gold just made history

Gold’s new milestone is not a rounding error—it changes investor psychology.

Reuters reported spot gold moving around $4,410/oz after touching $4,420/oz intraday, with gold up roughly two‑thirds in 2025, its strongest annual rise in decades. ^[4]

The stated catalysts are the classic “gold cocktail”:

Expectations of U.S. rate cuts (lower rates tend to help non‑yielding gold),
Safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tension,
and a weaker U.S. dollar, which can make gold cheaper for non‑U.S. buyers. ^[5]

This matters to Barrick because gold miners don’t just track gold—they often amplify it. When the metal rises faster than a miner’s costs, operating margins can expand sharply. That leverage can be a blessing… or a curse when gold turns the other way.

Commodity forecasts: what Wall Street thinks comes next

A key question for Barrick investors is whether today’s gold price is a peak, a plateau, or just another base camp.

Two major bank outlooks circulating this month point to continued strength into 2026:

Morgan Stanley forecast gold at $4,800/oz by Q4 2026, while also flagging the possibility of slower gains if some buying cools. ^[6]
Goldman Sachs projected $4,900/oz by December 2026 in its base case and emphasized continued structural support from central-bank demand and rate cuts. ^[7]

Barrick is also a meaningful copper producer, and copper is having its own moment. Goldman’s 2026 view calls for copper to consolidate and average about $11,400/ton, while still describing copper as a favored long-run industrial metal due to electrification-driven demand and supply constraints. ^[8]

If those forecasts prove even directionally right, Barrick sits in a sweet spot: a gold heavyweight with a copper growth pipeline. But forecasts are not facts—miners live and die by what prices actually do, not what strategists think they’ll do.

Mali: the single most important company-specific headline in December

If gold is the tide, Mali has been the storm.

Barrick regains operational control of its Mali mine

Reuters reported on December 18 that Barrick officially resumed operational control of its Mali gold mine, citing an internal memo. The memo described a gradual restart with mandatory training for workers and contractors. ^[9]

The “three tons of gold” headline wasn’t metaphorical

Earlier, Reuters reported that a Malian judge ordered the return of 3 metric tons of seized gold—worth roughly $400 million—to Barrick, following a settlement framework. Barrick would still need to handle the logistics of moving it. ^[10]

Barrick had already announced the dispute was resolved

Barrick’s own November 24 statement said it reached an agreement to end disputes with Mali, including dropping charges, releasing detained employees, terminating provisional administration, and withdrawing arbitration claims. ^[11]

Why this matters for the stock

This sequence—settlement → return of seized gold → resumption of operational control—reduces a risk premium that had been hanging over the company all year.

Barrick has also explicitly said the Loulo‑Gounkoto complex was excluded from its 2025 production guidance due to the temporary suspension, and it would update guidance when restart timing becomes clearer. ^[12]

Translation: the market now has to reprice the odds that Mali becomes a contributor again, rather than a permanent write‑off or an open-ended political hostage situation.

Strategy reset: leadership change, activist pressure, and “breakup” math

Barrick’s operational headlines are landing at the same time as a corporate-structure debate that refuses to go away.

CEO exit and interim leadership

Reuters reported that CEO Mark Bristow resigned abruptly in late September, and Barrick named Mark Hill as interim CEO while launching a search for a permanent chief executive. ^[13]

That matters because strategic priorities can change fast when the corner office changes hands—especially in a company wrestling with geopolitical exposure, project execution, and investor demands for returns.

Elliott enters the chat

Reuters also reported that activist investor Elliott Investment Management built a significant stake in Barrick, potentially worth at least $700 million, placing it among the company’s top shareholders. ^[14]

The board’s reported “two-entity” discussion

In mid-November, Reuters reported the board had raised the possibility of splitting Barrick into two separate entities—one focused on North America and another on Africa/Asia—according to sources familiar with internal thinking. ^[15]

Even if nothing happens, markets tend to treat these situations like a physics problem: once the idea exists, investors keep calculating the potential value unlocked by different structures.

The company’s concrete move: an IPO review for North American gold assets

The most actionable strategic development is not rumor—it’s a board-authorized review.

On December 1, Barrick announced it is evaluating an initial public offering of a subsidiary (“NewCo”) that would hold its premier North American gold assets. ^[16]

Barrick said NewCo would be anchored by interests in:

Nevada Gold Mines (joint venture),
Pueblo Viejo (joint venture),
and the Fourmile gold discovery in Nevada (wholly owned). ^[17]

Critically, Barrick also stated it would likely list only a small minority stake while retaining a controlling interest, and it plans to update the market on progress at Full Year 2025 results in February 2026. ^[18]

How investors may read this:

If NewCo gets valued like a “cleaner” North America-focused gold vehicle, it could surface a higher implied value than what those assets currently receive inside a more geopolitically complex parent.
If the structure adds complexity, tax friction, or governance headaches, the market may discount it.

Either way, it’s a high-stakes storyline that can easily dominate the stock into early 2026.

Fundamentals: record cash flow, bigger dividend, and aggressive buybacks

Barrick’s Q3 numbers help explain why management has the confidence to even attempt a strategic restructuring while returning cash.

In its third-quarter 2025 report, Barrick cited:

$4.1B revenue,
$2.4B operating cash flow and $1.5B free cash flow (both described as records),
and gold production of 829,000 ounces plus copper production of 55,000 tonnes. ^[19]

Barrick also increased its base quarterly dividend 25% to $0.125/share, then added a $0.05 performance dividend for a total $0.175/share dividend for the quarter. ^[20]

On buybacks, Barrick said it repurchased $1 billion of shares year-to-date and expanded the buyback authorization by $500 million, taking the program up to $1.5 billion (with expiry in February 2026). ^[21]

These are not small signals. When a miner boosts dividends and retires stock while also funding growth projects, it’s essentially telling the market: “We think the cash engine is real.”

Asset sales: pruning the portfolio and tightening the story

Barrick has also been trimming what it calls non-core assets.

In December, the company announced it completed the divestiture of its interests in the Tongon gold mine in Côte d’Ivoire to the Atlantic Group for total consideration of up to $305 million (cash plus contingents tied to gold prices and resource conversions). ^[22]

This matters for stock narratives because it supports a strategy of concentrating capital on the assets that management believes can anchor a premium valuation—particularly those in jurisdictions the market tends to reward.

So… what are analysts expecting for the stock?

Analyst views vary by provider and update cadence, but the current tone is broadly constructive.

One widely circulated roundup on December 22 described Barrick as having an average “Buy” rating and an average price target in the high-$40s (with several banks adjusting targets during Q4). ^[23]

Take any single “consensus price target” with a grain of salt the size of a mine haul truck: targets move with gold, with project updates, and with macro rate expectations. But the direction is telling—Wall Street has been forced to take miners more seriously again.

The key bull case and bear case for Barrick stock in 2026

Barrick is the kind of stock where the debate is simple to state and brutally hard to resolve.

The bull case

Gold stays structurally high (or keeps rising), and Barrick’s margins expand meaningfully. ^[24]
Mali restarts smoothly, removing a major uncertainty discount and restoring production potential. ^[25]
The NewCo IPO review (or any related restructuring) unlocks value and attracts a new shareholder base that wants “pure” North American gold exposure. ^[26]
Capital returns (dividends + buybacks) remain strong, reinforcing the “shareholder yield” story. ^[27]

The bear case

Gold cools quickly (especially if rate-cut expectations reverse), compressing margins and sentiment. ^[28]
Mali’s restart drags, gets disrupted, or reintroduces political risk—leaving the company with uncertainty it thought was behind it. ^[29]
The IPO/breakup storyline creates complexity without delivering a higher valuation, and management attention gets split during a crucial execution period. ^[30]
Big growth projects (and the jurisdictions they sit in) bring financing, permitting, and security risks that markets punish quickly when timelines slip. ^[31]

What to watch next (the near-term Barrick stock calendar)

Heading into year-end and early 2026, the market’s “next questions” for Barrick are fairly clear:

Mali ramp-up visibility: when production restarts materially, and whether guidance is updated to include Loulo‑Gounkoto again. ^[32]
Full Year 2025 Results (February 2026): Barrick has said it will update investors then on the NewCo IPO evaluation. ^[33]
Gold price durability: whether the $4,400 breakout becomes a new floor or a blow-off top. ^[34]
CEO search outcome: investors will be watching whether the interim era ends with continuity or a strategic pivot. ^[35]

Barrick’s stock is entering 2026 with momentum, but also with unusually high narrative density: gold at records, a geopolitics chapter turning the page, activists circling, and a board openly exploring structural moves. For investors, that’s either the recipe for a re-rating—or the setup for whiplash.