London, Jan 11, 2026, 09:07 GMT — The market has closed
- BAT shares ended Friday’s session in London up 1.25%.
- UBS stuck with its Buy rating and held the price target at GBP52, pointing to growth in 2026.
- BAT’s full-year results, due Feb. 12, stand as the next major catalyst.
UBS has maintained its Buy rating on British American Tobacco, projecting the company will return to steady growth by 2026 as U.S. nicotine pouches and newer products gain momentum. The firm also held its price target steady at GBP52.
The call arrives as markets kick off a new week, with defensives drawing fresh attention and investors grappling with the direction of earnings revisions. For BAT, the upcoming results are near enough to be significant, and the key question remains whether reduced-risk products can shoulder a bigger share of growth.
BAT shares ended Friday at 4,060 pence, gaining 50 pence, or 1.25%, after fluctuating between 3,982 pence and 4,060 pence during the session.
UBS analyst Faham Baig highlighted that BAT’s “New Categories” segment—covering vaping, heated products, and oral nicotine pouches—might see sales climb over 20% by 2026. He also pointed to easier year-on-year comparisons in the company’s mainstay combustibles business.
The broker forecasted that this mix could fuel 5% “organic” sales growth next year, excluding currency fluctuations and acquisitions, compared to a consensus estimate of 3.2%. UBS also predicted BAT would “beat and raise” its guidance through 2026.
BAT has relied on cash returns to steady performance and bankroll its move into newer products. In a Dec. 9 pre-close update, the company forecast around 2% revenue growth and roughly 2% growth in adjusted profit from operations for 2025. It also reaffirmed its mid-term target range starting in 2026 but noted that next year’s results would likely sit at the lower end of that band.
The update also highlighted ongoing U.S. growth in modern oral products and hinted at stricter enforcement against illicit vaping goods, a persistent headache for legal brands. BAT confirmed it plans to continue launching and expanding its glo Hilo heated product in key markets throughout 2026.
The road ahead isn’t straightforward. Regulation keeps shifting in key markets, while the U.S. vapour segment faces ongoing pressure from illegal supply. This undercuts pricing and market share gains, despite rising demand.
Traders will be eyeing if BAT can stay above the 4,000p mark in the upcoming session, along with any fresh broker commentary supporting the 2026 recovery story. The next key event is BAT’s full-year earnings report, set for Feb. 12.
