SYDNEY, Jan 4, 2026, 14:39 ET — Market closed
- SPI 200 futures were last at 8,726, down 0.09%, pointing to a largely flat start for Australian stocks.
- The S&P/ASX 200 ended Friday up 0.2% at 8,727.8 as banks led gains, while Northern Star slid after cutting FY26 guidance. mint
- Australia’s monthly CPI indicator is due on Jan. 7, with U.S. payrolls on Jan. 9, keeping rates in the spotlight.
Australian shares head into Monday’s open with futures little changed and investors still trading thin holiday liquidity into the first full week of 2026. SPI 200 futures — derivatives that track the benchmark share index — were last at 8,726.
The near-term test is whether risk appetite holds as markets pivot from year-end positioning to hard data. Australia’s monthly CPI indicator is due on Wednesday, Jan. 7, and traders globally also face a U.S. jobs report on Friday, Jan. 9 — both key inputs for interest-rate expectations.
That matters for the ASX because banks and high-dividend stocks have been leading the tape when investors lean toward “rates staying higher for longer,” while miners often follow the U.S. dollar and commodity swings. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation dashboard still shows annual CPI running at 3.8% on the latest monthly read, with the next update flagged for Jan. 7.
On Friday, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.2% to 8,727.8, snapping a four-session losing streak and marking its highest close since Dec. 24. Turnover was about 40% of the 30-day average, a Reuters report showed. mint
Financials gained 0.4% and the “Big Four” banks rose 0.4% to 0.8%. “When uncertainty eases, even slightly, money tends to flow first into the big banks,” Greg Boland, a market strategy consultant at Moomoo Securities Australia, said. mint
In company news, Northern Star cut FY26 gold sales guidance to 1,600–1,700 thousand ounces (koz) from 1,700–1,850 koz after what it called a softer December quarter. The miner said it will release December-quarter costs and revised annual cost guidance with its quarterly results on Thursday, Jan. 22.
Northern Star also set a management call for Monday, Jan. 5 at 2:00 p.m. AEDT to discuss the revised production outlook, giving the market a near-term catalyst as trade resumes.
Nickel Industries will also be watched after it said South Korea’s Sphere Corp will buy a 10% stake in its Excelsior Nickel Cobalt project in Indonesia at a $2.4 billion valuation. The company said Sphere will take its share of output under an offtake agreement — a purchase deal for future supply — while Nickel Industries keeps a 44% stake.
Offshore leads were mixed into the weekend. The Dow closed up 0.66% on Friday, the S&P 500 added 0.19% and the Nasdaq ended slightly lower, while U.S. yields pushed higher and commodities finished uneven — a backdrop that can spill into Australian banks, gold miners and energy names. Reuters
But the setup is sensitive to rates and the U.S. dollar at the start of the year. A stronger greenback and higher yields can pressure commodity-linked shares and rate-sensitive growth stocks, while a hot inflation print at home would force investors to revisit the path for Australian borrowing costs. Reuters
Next up, traders will watch Northern Star’s management call on Jan. 5 and the ABS monthly CPI indicator on Jan. 7, before U.S. payrolls on Jan. 9 shapes global rate pricing into the second week of 2026.
