BHP Group (ASX:BHP, NYSE:BHP) Stock Today: $2 Billion WAIO Power Deal, Samarco Settlement and 2026

Published: 9 December 2025 – Informational only, not financial advice

BHP share price today: near 52‑week highs on ASX and NYSE

BHP Group Limited (ASX:BHP, NYSE:BHP) is trading close to the top of its recent range after a busy few weeks of deals, litigation milestones and strategy resets.

On Wall Street, BHP’s U.S. stock closed at USD 58.34 on 8 December 2025, with after‑hours trading lifting it to around USD 59.42. That puts the shares near their 52‑week high of USD 59.86, versus a low of USD 39.73. Based on trailing 12‑month numbers, BHP is currently valued at about USD 149 billion, on revenue of roughly USD 51.3 billion and net income of around USD 9 billion, implying a trailing P/E of ~33x, a forward P/E near 13x, and a trailing dividend yield of about 3.7%. ^[1]

On the ASX, BHP’s primary listing was recently changing hands around A$44.73, up slightly on the day and also brushing against a 52‑week range of A$33.25–A$44.84.

In other words: BHP is not a beaten‑up cyclical at this point in the cycle. It is a cyclical that the market already likes – which matters for any stock forecast from here.

Fresh headline today: BHP’s $2 billion WAIO power‑network deal with GIP

The biggest new catalyst on 9 December 2025 is BHP’s infrastructure funding agreement for its Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) power network.

BHP has agreed a USD 2 billion funding deal with Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), now part of BlackRock, under which GIP will take a minority stake in WAIO’s inland power network. ^[2]

Key points and implications:

Capital recycling & balance sheet flexibility
By monetising a slice of the power infrastructure rather than the core mines, BHP effectively converts a non‑core asset into cash while still retaining operational control of its iron ore system. That helps fund its growth pipeline (Jansen potash, South Australian copper, debottlenecking in WAIO) without over‑stretching its balance sheet. ^[3]
Decarbonisation signal
Control of the power network is central to BHP’s plan to decarbonise WAIO. Bringing in an infrastructure specialist with long‑duration capital (GIP/BlackRock) aligns with a future where mines run increasingly on renewables and electrified fleets. ^[4]
Earnings impact likely modest, but quality of cash flows improves
The transaction doesn’t change BHP’s exposure to iron ore prices, but it should slightly lower capital intensity and tilt more cash toward shareholders and growth projects over time rather than into “wires and poles”.

For investors, the deal reinforces BHP’s preferred playbook: stay in the high‑margin parts of the mining value chain, and outsource the slow‑and‑steady infrastructure yield where it makes sense.

Other new developments this week: Brazil royalty, green trucks and Samarco

1. Pedra Branca royalty sold, copper assets sale progressing

On 8 December 2025, royalty company Gold Royalty Corp. agreed to buy an existing royalty over BHP’s Pedra Branca copper‑gold mine in Brazil for USD 70 million from BlackRock World Mining Trust. The royalty covers a 25% net smelter return (NSR) on gold and 2% NSR on copper and other products. ^[5]

The mine is currently operated by BHP and forms part of the Carajás East operations acquired in the OZ Minerals takeover. BHP already announced in August that it would sell Pedra Branca and other Carajás copper assets to CoreX Holding BV in a transaction worth up to USD 465 million, which is still pending closing. ^[6]

Takeaway: BHP continues to tidy up its portfolio, recycling smaller, non‑core assets, while staying focused on tier‑one iron ore and copper hubs.

2. Electric haul‑truck trials at Jimblebar

On 5 December 2025, BHP and Rio Tinto revealed they had taken delivery of two battery‑electric haul trucks to begin a trial at BHP’s Jimblebar iron ore mine in the Pilbara, in partnership with Caterpillar. ^[7]

The trial aims to test whether large battery‑electric trucks can practically replace diesel fleets at scale – including vehicle performance, charging infrastructure and power‑management systems.

Strategically, this matters because:

Haul‑truck diesel is one of the largest single sources of operational emissions for iron ore miners.
If the technology scales, it could significantly cut BHP’s operating emissions and fuel costs over time, though it will require hefty upfront infrastructure spending.

Together with the WAIO power‑network deal, the trial reinforces BHP’s attempt to turn decarbonisation into a competitive advantage rather than just a compliance cost. ^[8]

3. Samarco class action settlement approved

On 5 December 2025, the Federal Court of Australia approved the settlement of the long‑running Samarco shareholder class action related to the 2015 dam disaster in Brazil. BHP will pay A$110 million, inclusive of interest and costs, with no admission of liability, and expects to recover most of the amount from insurers. ^[9]

This is good news for risk perception, but it does not close the book on Samarco entirely:

The company still faces significant litigation in the UK, where a High Court ruling in November said BHP can be held liable in one of the world’s largest mass‑tort environmental cases. ^[10]
BHP has already spent billions on remediation and provisions, and Samarco remains an overhang when investors assess ESG and tail‑risk exposures. ^[11]

From a stock perspective, the Australian class‑action approval removes a discrete legal uncertainty and marginally de‑risks the story.

The Anglo American saga: bid abandoned, strategy reset

Heading into late November, BHP re‑ignited its pursuit of Anglo American, gate‑crashing Anglo’s planned no‑premium merger with Teck Resources and seeking to build a bigger copper powerhouse. After preliminary discussions, BHP walked away again, leaving the Anglo‑Teck tie‑up to proceed (subject to shareholder approval) and sparking a round of investor commentary about its strategy. ^[12]

Reuters Breakingviews described the outcome as a “dud swan song” for CEO Mike Henry if he leaves around mid‑2026, noting that the company has now “misread” Anglo’s openness to a deal twice, and failed to land a marquee M&A prize despite an acquisition‑hungry commodity cycle. ^[13]

Yet shareholders have reasons to be relieved:

Valuation work cited by Breakingviews suggested a 30% premium for Anglo’s stock would likely have delivered returns below its cost of capital, even with optimistic synergy assumptions. ^[14]
Many institutional investors publicly argued that BHP should “get over Anglo” and focus on its organic growth projects, including Jansen potash and South Australian copper. ^[15]

Practically, the failed bid leaves BHP with:

A still‑strong balance sheet (net‑debt target recently lifted to USD 10–20 billion, giving flexibility). ^[16]
A growth pipeline it now has no excuse not to execute on.

For the BHP share price, the Anglo retreat initially removed the risk of over‑paying, and the stock has since pushed to new year‑to‑date highs.

Operations and FY25 results: resilient, but past the earnings peak

BHP’s most recent full‑year numbers (for the year to 30 June 2025) underline a familiar theme: lower earnings off a still‑high base.

Underlying profit fell 26% to USD 10.16 billion, the lowest since the start of the pandemic, mainly because weaker iron ore and coal prices outweighed strength in copper.
Revenue declined about 8% to USD 51.3 billion.
The full‑year dividend was cut to USD 1.10 per share, the lowest since 2017 but ahead of market expectations, and still equivalent to a sizeable cash return. ^[17]

In its Economic and Commodity Outlook published in August, BHP highlighted: ^[18]

Persistent policy uncertainty around tariffs, fiscal stimulus and industrial policy.
Resilient demand overall for its key commodities, with copper demand stronger than previously expected thanks to renewable energy, grid build‑out and electric vehicles.
Iron ore prices ending FY25 below where they began, but rebounding toward the full‑year average, while potash prices have firmed.

Q1 FY26: slightly soft volumes, steady guidance

For the quarter to 30 September 2025, BHP reported: ^[19]

WAIO iron ore production of 70.2 million tonnes (100% basis) – down from 71.6 Mt a year earlier and slightly below analyst estimates, largely due to maintenance at Port Hedland’s Car Dumper 3, which finished ahead of schedule.
Copper production of around 494,000 tonnes, up about 4%, with FY26 copper and iron ore production guidance left unchanged.

Morningstar characterised the update as a “solid start to fiscal 2026”, noting that volumes and unit costs were in line with expectations and that BHP’s shares were trading “moderately above” its fair‑value estimate of USD 42 per NYSE share (roughly A$42 on ASX). ^[20]

Analyst ratings and 12‑month BHP stock forecasts

NYSE: BHP (USD‑denominated)

Data aggregated by StockAnalysis shows: ^[21]

Average rating: Hold (5 analysts).
Average 12‑month price target:USD 48.50, implying around 17% downside from the latest close.
Trailing yield: about 3.7%, based on USD 2.17 of dividends per share over the past year.
Valuation: trailing P/E ~33x, forward P/E ~13x.

MarketBeat’s compilation of broker actions over 2025 tells a similar story: a shift from Buy/Outperform toward Neutral/Hold, with several large houses (Citi, BMO, Bernstein, Macquarie, Argus) downgrading BHP as its share price rallied and commodity prices came off peak levels. ^[22]

ASX: BHP (AUD‑denominated)

For the Australian listing, Investing.com’s consensus across 15 analysts currently reads: ^[23]

Overall stance: Neutral.
Recommendation split: 5 Buy, 10 Hold, 0 Sell.
Average 12‑month target:A$44.04, just 1–2% below the current A$44.7 share price.
Target range: roughly A$39–A$47.

In other words, the broker community largely agrees that BHP is fairly valued to slightly expensive at today’s levels, with limited expected 12‑month upside after a strong run.

Longer‑term views: 2026–2030

Morningstar’s detailed modelling provides a window into the structural outlook: ^[24]

BHP is rated “no moat”, reflecting the brutal cyclicality of commodities and the lack of pricing power.
Analysts expect WAIO iron ore volumes to creep higher through 2030, and copper volumes to rise modestly as South Australian operations ramp up, offsetting lower grades at Escondida.
However, they also assume lower long‑term prices for iron ore and copper, leading to a negative ~3% compound annual decline in EBITDA between FY2026 and FY2030.

Separately, CEO Mike Henry has repeatedly emphasised that global copper demand could increase by up to 70% by 2050, driven by electrification and data‑centre energy needs, and BHP is positioning itself with investments in assets such as Olympic Dam and the Jansen potash project. ^[25]

The upshot: the long‑term story is not about explosive earnings growth, but about defending high margins and harvesting cash from world‑class ore bodies while gradually tilting the portfolio toward “future‑facing” commodities.

Strategy, growth projects and portfolio clean‑up

Jansen potash and South Australian copper

BHP is deep into its Jansen potash development in Canada, a multi‑decade bet on population growth and changing diets. In August, the company acknowledged cost overruns and schedule pressure, flagging up to USD 1.7 billion in additional costs and a slower investment run‑rate beyond 2028. ^[26]

At the same time, BHP is:

Investing more than A$840 million (about USD 555 million) into its Olympic Dam copper operations, aiming to increase output and prepare for a 2027‑era investment decision on further expansion. ^[27]
Continuing debottlenecking in WAIO to sustain or slightly lift low‑cost iron ore volumes. ^[28]

The growth pipeline is therefore capital‑intensive but focused: more copper, more potash, incrementally more iron ore – not sprawling diversification into unrelated sectors.

Nickel West and critical‑minerals strategy

BHP’s Nickel West business is effectively on the block. A collapse in nickel prices – roughly 50% over three years, largely due to low‑cost Indonesian supply dominated by Chinese capital – has left higher‑cost operations in Australia under intense pressure. ^[29]

Reports from October suggest: ^[30]

Nickel West has been running at a loss and is now for sale.
Private‑equity and smaller miners are eyeing the assets, especially if BHP agrees to sell them in pieces.
Any buyer would inherit rehabilitation liabilities estimated near USD 900 million, a major complication.

For BHP shareholders, an exit from Nickel West would be strategically consistent (exiting sub‑scale, loss‑making operations) but might involve impairment charges and messy accounting before the benefits show up.

ESG, labour and litigation risks

No serious BHP analysis can ignore its non‑financial risk profile, which feeds directly into valuation through discount rates and potential cash outflows.

Key issues right now:

Samarco and Brazilian dam litigation
Alongside the Australian class‑action settlement, BHP still faces huge claims in the UK related to the 2015 Mariana dam collapse, after a High Court judge ruled that it can be held liable despite corporate‑structure arguments. ^[31]
Labour‑hire rulings and holiday‑pay disputes
In July, a “same job, same pay” ruling in Australia forced BHP to significantly lift wages for labour‑hire workers at some mines, with average back‑pay reported around A$30,000 per worker. ^[32]
In November, the Federal Court ordered BHP to compensate 85 coal workers A$800–A$2,400 each for being compelled to work Christmas and Boxing Day in 2019 without a genuine right to refuse, and imposed an additional A$15,000 penalty payable to the Mining and Energy Union. ^[33]
Ongoing climate and decarbonisation pressures
From WAIO’s power network to electric haul‑truck trials, BHP is investing heavily to reshape its diesel‑heavy mining systems, but regulators and investors are likely to demand faster progress and clearer interim targets over the next decade. ^[34]

These factors don’t show up in the P/E ratio at first glance, but they help explain why some analysts are cautious about applying premium multiples versus other large miners.

So is BHP stock a buy after the latest news?

Putting it together as of 9 December 2025:

Fundamentals
- BHP controls some of the lowest‑cost iron ore assets in the world, a growing copper footprint, and a large potash option. ^[35]
- Balance sheet strength remains a key asset, even after raising the net‑debt target range. ^[36]
Valuation
- On both ASX and NYSE, the shares are trading near 52‑week highs, with dividend yields in the high‑3% range and analyst targets clustered slightly below the current price. ^[37]
- Consensus 12‑month forecasts call for little to no upside, with some U.S.‑based models implying mid‑teens downside if earnings normalise and multiples de‑rate. ^[38]
News flow
- The WAIO power‑network funding deal, electric truck trial and Samarco settlement approval are all incrementally positive for de‑risking and decarbonising BHP’s operations. ^[39]
- The failed Anglo American bid arguably spared shareholders the risk of a very expensive mega‑deal, but also raises questions about BHP’s M&A judgment. ^[40]

For long‑term, diversified investors, BHP still looks like a high‑quality, highly cyclical cash‑machine tied to global steel, infrastructure and electrification trends. At today’s prices, however, much of that quality appears to be already reflected in the valuation.

Future returns from here are likely to depend more on:

The path of iron ore and copper prices.
Execution on Jansen, Olympic Dam and WAIO debottlenecking.
How the company manages its ESG and legal overhangs.

References

BHP Group (ASX:BHP, NYSE:BHP) Stock Today: $2 Billion WAIO Power Deal, Samarco Settlement and 2026–2030 Outlook (9 December 2025)