BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP, NYSE:BHP) Stock: Price, Latest News and 2026 Forecast After $2 Billion Power Deal

Snapshot: Where BHP Stock Stands Today

BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP, NYSE:BHP) is trading near its 52‑week highs across several exchanges, supported by firm iron ore and copper prices and a string of balance sheet‑friendly moves.

On the ASX, BHP shares were around A$44.7–44.8 on 10 December 2025, close to their 52‑week high of about A$44.8. ^[1] The company’s own investor site shows the latest indicative prices as roughly A$44.75 in Australia and US$59.01 for the New York–listed ADR. ^[2]

According to Australian research outlet Rask Media, the BHP share price has risen about 10.9% since the start of 2025, underscoring how resilient the stock has been in a choppy commodities and macro environment. ^[3]

BHP’s dividend yield sits just under 4% (around 3.9% on recent ASX pricing), with a market capitalisation of about A$227 billion, keeping it firmly in mega‑cap, blue‑chip territory. ^[4]

1. The Big New Catalyst: $2 Billion Power Network Deal With BlackRock’s GIP

The headline story for BHP this week is a major infrastructure partnership that frees up capital without giving up operational control.

Deal structure

On 9 December, BHP announced that Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), owned by BlackRock, will invest US$2 billion in the Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) inland power network. ^[5]

Key points:

BHP and GIP will form a new entity to own the power network assets.
BHP will hold 51% and GIP 49%, but BHP retains full operational control over WAIO and the power infrastructure. ^[6]
BHP will pay the entity a usage‑based tariff over 25 years, effectively turning a chunk of infrastructure capex into a long‑term lease‑style obligation. ^[7]

BHP’s CFO Vandita Pant described the agreement as an example of “disciplined capital portfolio management” that strengthens balance sheet flexibility and supports long‑term value creation. ^[8] Analysts quoted by Reuters and Zacks highlighted the deal as capital recycling: BHP swaps a low‑return infrastructure asset for cash it can redeploy into higher‑return growth, particularly in copper and potash. ^[9]

Why it matters for the stock

For shareholders, the transaction has three main implications:

Lower capital intensity in iron ore: BHP no longer needs to fund all future power network investment from its own balance sheet.
More firepower for growth projects like the Jansen potash mine and copper expansions. ^[10]
Stable, utility‑style obligations replace lumpy capex — useful in managing cyclicality.

In short, the deal doesn’t radically change BHP’s earnings profile today, but it improves optionality: more room for growth capex, M&A or future capital returns if commodity markets stay supportive.

2. Big Money Moves: Norges Bank Buys as Short Interest Rises

Norges Bank builds a new stake

A separate development is the arrival of a heavyweight institutional investor:

Norges Bank, Norway’s sovereign wealth manager, disclosed a new position of 421,334 BHP ADRs, worth about US$20.3 million at the time of its Form 13F filing. ^[11]
MarketBeat data shows that hedge funds and other institutions collectively hold about 3.8% of BHP’s stock, indicating modest but broad‑based institutional participation. ^[12]

The same report notes that the ADR opened this week around US$58–59, with a 12‑month range of roughly US$39.7 to US$59.9, putting current pricing very close to the top of that band. ^[13]

Short interest ticking up, but still low

On the other side of the ledger, short sellers have become slightly more active:

Benzinga reports that BHP’s short interest has risen 4.55% since the previous update.
There are now about 17.63 million shares sold short, roughly 0.69% of the free float, with a days‑to‑cover ratio of 6.49 based on average trading volume. ^[14]
BHP’s short interest remains well below the average of about 8% of float for its peer group. ^[15]

In plain language: some traders are leaning more cautiously against the stock at these levels, but the positioning is far from a heavy “short crowding” situation.

3. Fundamentals: Iron Ore Resilience, Copper Growth and Potash Upside

Iron ore: cash cow under geopolitical pressure

BHP remains heavily reliant on iron ore, particularly from its WAIO operations in the Pilbara.

In its latest quarterly update (for the three months to 30 September 2025), BHP:

Produced 70.2 million tonnes of iron ore from WAIO (100% basis), slightly below consensus estimates due to maintenance at Port Hedland.
Kept its FY26 WAIO output guidance unchanged at 284–296 Mt, signalling confidence in underlying demand.
Reported 5% higher sales of higher‑value lump ore, which supports margins. ^[16]

Chief executive Mike Henry emphasised that overall macro signals for commodity demand remain resilient, even as China’s growth moderates. ^[17]

At the same time, a Reuters Breakingviews column recently highlighted a sharp reminder of BHP’s concentration risk: reports that China Mineral Resources Group had asked buyers to pause purchases of BHP’s iron ore, likely as a bargaining tactic during price talks. The share price dipped briefly and then largely recovered, but the episode underlined how dependent BHP remains on Chinese steel demand. ^[18]

Copper: record output and energy‑transition tailwind

Copper is increasingly the star of BHP’s long‑term story:

BHP has delivered record annual copper production above 2 million tonnes, supported by strong performance at Escondida and other assets, although it has guided to slightly lower volumes next year. ^[19]
Over the last three years, copper output has risen around 28%, helped by the acquisition of OZ Minerals. ^[20]

BHP’s own Economic and Commodity Outlook stresses that under a 1.5°C climate scenario the world will likely need roughly twice as much copper over the next three decades as in the previous three, with the industry requiring around US$250 billion in growth capital by 2030. ^[21]

That framing positions BHP’s copper portfolio squarely in the slipstream of electrification, EVs, and grid expansion.

Potash: Jansen project nearing the home stretch

The Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan, Canada, is BHP’s flagship “future growth” bet:

Jansen Stage 1 was about 68% complete by the end of FY25 and has since progressed to roughly 73% completion, staying on track for first production in 2027. ^[22]
Stage 2 has reached around 13% completion, reinforcing management’s ambition to become a major global potash producer. ^[23]
Total Stage 1 capex is estimated at approximately US$7.4 billion, according to BHP’s annual reporting. ^[24]

Potash demand is expected to be driven by food security and the need to intensify agricultural output. BHP estimates that potash demand could double by the late 2040s, with the market potentially reaching US$50 billion in annual size. ^[25]

There have been reports of cost pressure and timeline adjustments at Jansen and related potash infrastructure, but recent production and construction updates continue to describe the project as “on track” for its mid‑decade ramp‑up. ^[26]

Operational excellence narrative

A recent deep‑dive from TIKR described BHP’s latest quarter as a “strong start” to the fiscal year, highlighting: ^[27]

Group copper production up about 4% year‑on‑year, with record concentrator throughput at Escondida.
WAIO achieving a record amount of material mined, despite significant maintenance.
Steelmaking coal production up around 4% year‑on‑year.
Jansen Stage 1 at about 73% completion and still expected to be a low‑cost producer.

The article’s takeaway: BHP is executing well operationally, but much of that strength may already be reflected in the share price.

4. M&A Overhang: Anglo Bid and the Push to Diversify

BHP’s growth ambitions are not limited to organic projects.

Bloomberg reported that BHP considered a roughly £40 billion bid for Anglo American earlier this year, a proposal that has since been shelved. ^[28] Combined with the China‑related iron ore spat, Reuters commentators argue that this sort of M&A reflects a strategic desire to diversify away from over‑reliance on one commodity (iron ore) and one customer (China). ^[29]

Under CEO Mike Henry, BHP has already:

Built out its copper portfolio, including the purchase of OZ Minerals. ^[30]
Committed heavily to potash via Jansen. ^[31]

The aborted Anglo approach and comments from BHP’s strategy team hint that further large‑scale deals remain possible, subject to regulatory and political constraints. ^[32]

For investors, that introduces an extra layer of uncertainty: potential upside from acquiring high‑quality assets, but also the classic M&A risks of overpaying or inheriting complex portfolios.

5. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets: Neutral With Limited Upside

ADR (NYSE:BHP) – USD targets

Across major data providers, the message is remarkably consistent: BHP is broadly rated Hold/Neutral, with most analysts seeing limited upside or modest downside from current levels.

MarketBeat aggregates 9 Wall Street analysts with a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average 12‑month price target of US$48.50, with a range from US$44 to US$53. With the ADR around US$59, that implies roughly 18% downside on average. ^[33]
StockAnalysis reports essentially the same figures, also labelling the stock “Hold” with a US$48.5 mid‑point target and similar high/low bounds. ^[34]
Investing.com’s consensus from six analysts is likewise Neutral, with an average target around US$54.25 (high US$62, low US$48), implying about 8% downside. ^[35]

Recent broker activity includes:

Citi reiterating a Hold/Neutral call with an Australian dollar price target equivalent to about A$47, slightly above current ASX pricing. ^[36]
JPMorgan nudging its London‑listed BHP target to 2,200 pence from 2,160 pence, also with a Neutral stance. ^[37]

ASX:BHP – AUD targets and technical picture

On the ASX listing:

Investing.com cites an average 12‑month target around A$44.1, with a high near A$47.5 and a low just under A$39, based on several local analysts. That’s roughly –1% downside from the current A$44.7–44.8 level, effectively expecting BHP to track sideways. ^[38]
Another forecast collection (Moomoo) similarly shows targets clustered around the mid‑A$40s, with an overall Neutral rating. ^[39]

Interestingly, Investing.com’s technical indicator suite currently flags BHP as a “Strong Buy” on daily technicals, reflecting positive price momentum rather than fundamental valuation. ^[40]

Interpretation

Boiled down:

Fundamentals: Strong, diversified portfolio with visible growth in copper and potash and a very solid balance sheet. ^[41]
Valuation: After a strong run in 2024–25, most mainstream sell‑side models see limited upside over the next year at today’s price, unless commodity prices surprise to the upside or BHP executes accretive deals. ^[42]
Market positioning: Modest institutional buying (e.g., Norges Bank) and low overall short interest suggest no consensus “crowded trade” one way or the other. ^[43]

6. Dividend, Balance Sheet and “Big, Boring, Stable” Income

BHP continues to be viewed by many income‑oriented investors as a high‑quality, high‑beta yield stock:

The current dividend yield is around 3.8–3.9%, with a history of generous, though variable, payouts tied to earnings and commodity cycles. ^[44]
MarketBeat and other sources point to a debt‑to‑equity ratio of about 0.4, and liquidity metrics (quick and current ratios) above 1, underscoring a disciplined balance sheet. ^[45]

A recent Seeking Alpha analysis characterised BHP as “big, boring, stable income with leverage to growing commodities”: the idea is that investors get steady dividends plus potential upside if copper, potash or iron ore enter sustained bull markets. ^[46]

The new WAIO power deal, by reducing future capital intensity, should help protect that dividend capacity through the cycle, even if growth projects like Jansen temporarily absorb more cash. ^[47]

7. ESG, Legal Overhangs and Risk Factors

No BHP stock analysis is complete without acknowledging ESG and litigation history, particularly around tailings and environmental issues.

BHP has communicated that an Australian court has approved a settlement of the Samarco securities class action, related to the 2015 Brazil dam disaster, which helps reduce one strand of legal uncertainty for shareholders. ^[48]
The company is working toward the Mining Association of Canada’s “Towards Sustainable Mining” (TSM) disclosure deadline at the end of December 2025, indicating a push for greater transparency over tailings and ESG performance across its portfolio. ^[49]
BHP’s FY25 results and sustainability commentary highlight progress toward a 30% operational emissions reduction by FY2030, increased Indigenous procurement, and more renewable energy contracts. ^[50]

Key ongoing risks for investors include:

Commodity price volatility in iron ore, copper, coal and potash.
China exposure, both economic and political, given the dominance of Chinese steel mills in BHP’s iron ore demand. ^[51]
Execution risk at Jansen and other large capital projects, particularly around cost inflation and schedule slippage. ^[52]
Potential future M&A, which could create value or destroy it depending on price, structure and regulatory environment. ^[53]

8. What Today’s News Means for BHP Stock Heading Into 2026

Putting everything together:

The US$2 billion WAIO power deal is fundamentally a balance‑sheet optimisation story. It slightly improves BHP’s financial flexibility and reinforces its ability to fund copper and potash growth without over‑leveraging. ^[54]
Institutional interest (Norges Bank and others) and low short interest indicate the market sees BHP as a core holding, not a speculative battleground. ^[55]
Analysts are broadly neutral, with most 12‑month price targets clustering below or close to current levels, implying that a lot of the good news is already in the price unless commodity markets or M&A outcomes surprise positively. ^[56]

For investors, BHP at current levels looks like:

A high‑quality, diversified mining major with world‑class iron ore and copper assets, a large potash option and a strong ESG narrative;
A solid dividend payer backed by a robust balance sheet;
But also a stock that, according to consensus models, may offer more “through‑the‑cycle resilience” than explosive near‑term upside at today’s price.

References

BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP, NYSE:BHP) Stock: Price, Latest News and 2026 Forecast After $2 Billion Power Deal – December 10, 2025