BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP) Stock Hits 52‑Week High as Anglo Bid Fades and Samarco Risk Eases

BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP, NYSE:BHP) has surged back into the spotlight. On 8 December 2025, BHP shares on the ASX traded around A$44.5, just shy of a fresh 52‑week high of A$44.84, giving the miner a market capitalisation of roughly A$226 billion. That puts BHP within striking distance of Commonwealth Bank’s A$258 billion valuation and cements its place at the heart of the current resources-led rally on the ASX. ^[1]

At the same time, a series of legal, strategic and ESG developments – from the Samarco class action settlement to the failed Anglo American takeover bid and advances in decarbonisation – are reshaping the investment narrative around the world’s largest diversified miner.

BHP share price today: near record territory

According to Google Finance data, BHP Billiton shares on the ASX were recently quoted around A$44.54, with a prior close of A$44.84. Over the past year the stock has traded between A$33.25 and A$44.84, meaning it is effectively at the very top of its 52‑week range. ^[2]

Market Index data for the week to Friday 5 December show BHP: ^[3]

Closing at A$44.84
Up 7.6% over the week
Up around 10% over the past year
Joining a cluster of materials names at 52‑week highs as copper, iron ore and gold prices push the sector to record levels

Valuation metrics on the ASX line up as follows: ^[4]

Price/earnings (P/E): ~16.6x trailing earnings
Dividend yield: ~3.8%
Market cap: ~A$226 billion

By comparison, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) currently trades on a P/E above 25x with a market cap near A$258 billion and a dividend yield a little over 3%. ^[5] BHP is still about 12% smaller by market value, but the gap has narrowed significantly, a trend highlighted in recent Australian media coverage noting that BHP’s strong rally is putting it back in contention for the No. 1 spot on the ASX. ^[6]

What is driving the latest BHP rally?

1. Commodity tailwinds: iron ore and copper doing the heavy lifting

Citi’s commodities team recently pointed out that spot markets are doing much of the work for BHP’s earnings. Iron ore prices are holding around US$108/t, comfortably above the bank’s US$97/t FY26 assumption, while copper trades near US$5.4/lb versus its longer‑term forecast of US$5.1/lb. ^[7]

As a result, Citi has nudged its FY26 EBITDA forecast for BHP up by about 1.6%, with another 1% upgrade in FY27. The bank also notes upside risk to copper volumes, driven in part by improving grades at Escondida, BHP’s flagship copper asset in Chile. ^[8]

In simple terms: higher‑than‑assumed commodity prices plus incremental production improvements translate into better earnings momentum than many models assumed even a few months ago.

2. Sector-wide breakout in resources

Market Index data show that 14 materials stocks – including BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue – have recently hit fresh 52‑week highs, as the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index breaks out to record levels after roughly four years of sideways trading. ^[9] That breadth suggests this is not a single‑name story; BHP is riding a broader wave of renewed enthusiasm for resources, particularly copper and iron ore.

Legal overhangs: Samarco settlement vs Fundão risk

Court approval of A$110m Samarco class action settlement

On 5 December 2025, the Federal Court of Australia approved the settlement of the Australian Samarco shareholder class action against BHP. Under the terms, BHP will pay A$110 million, inclusive of interest and costs, with no admission of liability, and expects to recover the majority of this amount from insurers. ^[10]

Key implications:

The settlement closes a defined piece of shareholder litigation tied to the 2015 Samarco dam failure in Brazil.
The net cash cost to BHP should be significantly lower than A$110m due to insurance recoveries.
While the amount is immaterial relative to BHP’s market cap and annual cash flow, removing this specific case reduces uncertainty that investors have had to discount.

For equity holders, this is modestly positive: a small financial charge in exchange for clearing one more piece of long‑running Samarco‑related litigation.

English High Court ruling on the Fundão dam claims

The picture is more complex for the broader Fundão dam proceedings. In mid‑November, the English High Court ruled that BHP Group Ltd and BHP Group (UK) can be held accountable under Brazilian law for the 2015 Fundão tailings dam collapse operated by Samarco. The ruling also upheld waivers for claimants already compensated in Brazil, which may reduce the number of eligible plaintiffs and total claims. ^[11]

The court also noted that BHP and Vale – Samarco’s co‑owners – should share liability equally. ^[12]

Investor takeaway:

The legal risk is real but still highly uncertain in terms of ultimate financial impact.
The Samarco class action settlement in Australia is a narrow win, but the broader Fundão litigation remains a medium‑term overhang that investors must factor into any valuation or risk analysis.

Strategic pivot: Anglo American bid fails, but tells you a lot

The £40 billion Anglo American bid that went nowhere

In late November, BHP confirmed that it had walked away from a renewed takeover approach for Anglo American, ending a short but high‑stakes attempt to enlarge its copper footprint. ^[13]

Subsequent reporting has filled in the numbers:

BHP reportedly offered around £40 billion (about US$53 billion) for Anglo American. ^[14]
The bid equated to roughly £34 per Anglo share, a 24% premium to the then market price, and was largely stock with a cash component. ^[15]
Anglo’s board rejected the proposal, prioritising its own planned merger with Teck Resources and expressing concerns about prolonged regulatory scrutiny and deal uncertainty. ^[16]

BHP subsequently released a statement saying it was “no longer considering a combination” with Anglo American, while stressing that the deal would have had strong strategic merits and that it remains “confident in the highly compelling potential” of its organic growth strategy instead. ^[17]

Under UK takeover rules, BHP is now barred from making another approach for six months, unless circumstances change materially. ^[18]

What the failed bid signals about BHP’s strategy

The Anglo saga underscores several points about BHP:

Management is willing to pursue very large, transformational M&A to deepen exposure to copper and other “future‑facing commodities.”
The regulatory and political risk around mega‑mergers in mining remains high, especially where market concentration and national interest issues arise. ^[19]
Having failed to secure Anglo, BHP is doubling down on its existing pipeline, from copper to potash, and will likely be more selective in future deal‑making.

For investors, the failed bid removes immediate leverage and integration risk, but it also limits near‑term inorganic growth in copper volumes.

Future-facing portfolio: copper, potash and decarbonisation

Jansen potash: cornerstone of the post‑iron‑ore story

BHP’s Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan, Canada, has become central to its strategy of reducing dependence on steelmaking materials. Jansen is described as the largest investment in Saskatchewan’s history and is crucial to BHP’s aim of building a major potash business. ^[20]

BHP has repeatedly said that roughly 65% of its medium‑term capital spend will be directed towards “future‑facing commodities”, particularly copper and potash. ^[21] The idea is simple:

Potash provides long‑duration exposure to agricultural demand.
Copper provides leverage to electrification and the energy transition.
Together they help rebalance a portfolio still heavily skewed towards iron ore.

Decarbonisation moves: electric haul trucks and green steel pathways

Two sets of recent announcements show BHP trying to stay ahead of the curve on decarbonisation:

Electric haul truck trials
BHP and Rio Tinto have begun trials of battery‑electric Caterpillar haul trucks at BHP’s Jimblebar iron ore mine in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. The program aims to cut diesel consumption and reduce operational emissions. Both companies will independently evaluate the trials to determine whether large‑scale deployment is feasible. ^[22]
Lower‑carbon steelmaking tests in China
BHP recently reported successful trials using its Pilbara iron ore in direct reduced iron (DRI) processes at two commercial plants in China, in partnership with China Baowu and HBIS Group. According to BHP, the DRI route combined with electric smelting has the potential to cut CO₂ emissions in ironmaking by up to 85% versus the conventional blast furnace route. ^[23]

These initiatives do not transform BHP’s earnings profile overnight, but they matter for:

ESG‑focused capital flows
Long‑term licence‑to‑operate in key jurisdictions
Future competitiveness as steelmakers decarbonise

China risk in focus: iron ore dependence under scrutiny

A recent Reuters Breakingviews column highlighted a new risk flashpoint in the BHP–China relationship. According to the piece, state‑run China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) instructed major steel mills and traders to pause purchases of BHP iron ore, in what appears to be a tactic in price negotiations. ^[24]

Despite the headline risk, BHP shares dropped no more than about 2.5% on the news and later recovered roughly half of the loss. ^[25]

Breakingviews points out that:

Iron ore still accounts for around 55% of BHP’s underlying EBITDA, even after a 10‑percentage‑point reduction in its share over the past year. ^[26]
China buys the vast majority of that iron ore, creating a double concentration risk: single commodity and single dominant customer. ^[27]

For investors, the message is clear: diversification into copper and potash is not just a growth story; it is a risk‑management necessity.

How are analysts valuing BHP now?

Consensus ratings: Neutral with modest downside

Across major broker and data platforms, BHP is currently seen as fairly valued to slightly overvalued:

MarketBeat (NYSE: BHP):
- 9 analysts, average 12‑month target of US$48.50, with a range from US$44 to US$53.
- Based on a recent ADR price around US$58.8, this implies about 18% downside, and an overall Hold stance. ^[28]
Investing.com consensus:
- 15 analysts, overall rating “Neutral”.
- 5 rate BHP a Buy, 10 a Hold, none a Sell.
- Average 12‑month target price around US$44.1, with a high near US$47.5 and a low around US$38.7. ^[29]

In other words, the analyst community, on average, does not see BHP as a bargain at current levels; the share price is already discounting robust commodity prices and successful execution on growth projects.

Fair value models: small upward revisions

A recent fair‑value update from Simply Wall St, summarised via SwingTradeBot, notes that BHP’s intrinsic value estimate has been lifted from about A$44.73 to A$45.21 per share. The change reflects a slight improvement in revenue growth forecasts and updated assumptions around future cash flows. ^[30]

From a valuation standpoint:

At an ASX price around A$44–45, BHP is trading very close to these modelled fair‑value estimates.
This supports the view that, under conservative growth assumptions, BHP is fair rather than obviously cheap.

Financial performance: strong but not explosive

Google Finance highlights the following for BHP’s quarter ended 30 June 2025 (fiscal Q4): ^[31]

Revenue: ~US$13.0 billion, down about 8% year‑on‑year
Net income: ~US$2.3 billion, down about 34% year‑on‑year
Net margin: around 18%
Free cash flow: ~US$2.15 billion, down about 20%

The decline reflects softer average commodity prices and cost inflation versus the prior year, even as volumes held up reasonably well. Despite that, BHP still generated healthy margins and maintained a robust balance sheet, with total assets above US$100 billion and solid returns on capital. ^[32]

Looking forward, BHP’s financial calendar shows the next key update will be an Operational Review for the half year to 31 December 2025, scheduled for 20 January 2026. ^[33] That event will provide fresh data on production, costs and capital spending, and could be a catalyst for earnings and target-price revisions.

Key risks investors should watch

Even with the recent rally, BHP is far from risk‑free. Some of the key issues on the radar:

Commodity price volatility
- Iron ore and copper prices have been unusually strong; a reversal would directly hit earnings and free cash flow. ^[34]
China demand and policy risk
- The CMRG directive to pause BHP ore purchases shows how quickly political and commercial tensions can surface. ^[35]
Legal and ESG liabilities
- While the Samarco shareholder settlement is now approved and largely insured, the broader Fundão litigation remains unresolved and could be expensive. ^[36]
Execution risk on growth projects
- Jansen and other large growth projects are capital‑intensive; cost overruns or delays could erode returns. ^[37]
Regulatory and antitrust limits on M&A
- The failed Anglo American deal illustrates how difficult it may be for BHP to expand via mega‑mergers, even when strategic logic is strong. ^[38]

Outlook: is BHP stock a buy, hold or sell right now?

BHP’s current set‑up can be summarised like this:

Momentum case:
- Share price near 52‑week highs, supported by strong copper and iron ore prices and a sector‑wide resources breakout. ^[39]
- Continued progress on decarbonisation and “future‑facing” growth projects bolsters the long‑term story. ^[40]
Valuation reality:
- Consensus targets and fair‑value models cluster at or below current prices, implying limited upside and some downside risk if commodity prices normalise. ^[41]
Risk backdrop:
- Legal liabilities, China exposure, and big‑ticket project risk remain structural features of the investment case. ^[42]

For diversified investors and institutions, BHP remains a core cyclical and resources exposure, combining:

Global scale
High‑quality ore bodies
A strong balance sheet
A relatively generous dividend stream

However, any decision to buy, hold or sell BHP shares depends on individual risk tolerance, time horizon, tax considerations and broader portfolio context. The information above is general in nature and does not constitute personal financial advice. Investors should consider consulting a licensed financial adviser and reviewing BHP’s own filings, operational reviews and sustainability reports before making any decisions.