BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP) Today: Share Price Moves, Anglo American Deal Collapse and China Iron Ore Dispute

BHP share price today: modest gain, big headlines

BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP) finished Monday’s session at A$40.62, with intraday trading between about A$40.18 and A$40.89 on volumes close to 15 million shares. That puts the stock up roughly 0.6% on the day, in line with several market data providers and exchange reports. ^[1]

By contrast, the S&P/ASX 200 rallied about 1.3% as investors bet on possible US Federal Reserve rate cuts, meaning BHP underperformed the broader market despite closing in positive territory. ^[2]

On Wall Street, BHP’s US‑listed American Depositary Receipts (NYSE:BHP) were recently changing hands near US$53.08, up close to 1% in early Monday trading (prices intraday and subject to change).

Anglo American takeover: BHP walks away from a last‑minute copper land grab

The big story driving BHP’s stock today is its decision to abandon a renewed takeover approach for Anglo American just days after news emerged that it had quietly reopened talks.

BHP confirmed in a statement to regulators that it is “no longer considering a possible combination” with Anglo American after preliminary discussions with the UK‑listed miner’s board. ^[3]
Management continues to insist that an Anglo tie‑up had “strong strategic merits,” especially in copper, but says it is confident in the “compelling potential” of its own organic growth pipeline instead. ^[4]
The withdrawal comes just weeks before Anglo and Teck Resources shareholders vote on a roughly US$50–60 billion merger to form “Anglo Teck,” one of the world’s largest copper producers. ^[5]

Under UK takeover rules, BHP now faces a six‑month “cooling‑off” period before it can make another bid for Anglo, unless specific circumstances change (for example, if a third party launches an offer or the Takeover Panel grants an exemption). ^[6]

Initial market reaction has been relatively muted: BHP ticked higher on the ASX, while Anglo American shares opened around 2% stronger in London as investors welcomed a clearer path to the Anglo‑Teck deal. ^[7]

Commentary from trading desks and brokers, including IG’s “stock of the day” feature, frames the move as BHP swapping mega‑M&A risk for a back‑to‑basics copper and potash growth story, rather than giving up on consolidation altogether. ^[8]

Investors to BHP: “Get over Anglo and deliver the projects”

A separate report from Reuters today captures the mood among several large shareholders: they now want BHP to stop chasing Anglo and focus on execution. ^[9]

Key themes from investors include:

Project delivery and cost control should take priority over another high‑stakes deal at what many see as a late stage in the commodity cycle. ^[10]
Concerns that repeated attempts at “top‑of‑the‑market” acquisitions could undermine BHP’s reputation for capital discipline, especially after it recently raised its net debt tolerance band to roughly US$10–20 billion to support growth. ^[11]
A belief that BHP already has a multi‑year pipeline of copper, potash and nickel projects capable of driving earnings without a transformational takeover. ^[12]

In other words, today’s message from the market is clear: less empire‑building, more delivery.

China iron ore dispute: bans on BHP products, but prices still firm

The Anglo news is playing out against a complex backdrop in BHP’s core iron ore business, where a pricing dispute with China’s state‑backed buyer has escalated over recent weeks.

Since September, China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) has instructed steel mills to stop buying BHP’s Jimblebar Blend Fines, a specific iron ore product, as part of contentious negotiations over 2026 supply contracts. ^[13]
Last week, CMRG extended the ban to Jinbao (also called Jinbao/Jingbao) Fines, a low‑grade ore, and reportedly gave mills several days to halt unloading of these cargoes at ports. ^[14]
Analysts note that these are smaller‑volume, lower‑grade products, so the curbs are targeted bargaining tools rather than a blanket embargo on BHP’s shipments. Port data suggest flows of other BHP grades from Port Hedland remain broadly intact, while buyers have turned to rival Rio Tinto’s Pilbara Blend, tightening that market instead. ^[15]

Despite clear tension, iron ore prices remain resilient: spot and futures prices are hovering around US$104–105 per tonne, supported by supply disruptions and restocking even as Chinese steel output cools into winter. ^[16]

A short TradingView update this morning bundled these developments together, flagging that BHP now faces simultaneous pressure from both the Anglo deal fallout and the China iron ore standoff, even as its share price edged about 1% higher. ^[17]

Legal overhang: UK court finds BHP liable for Fundão dam disaster

Another major piece of the BHP investment puzzle is legal risk from the 2015 Fundão tailings dam collapse at Samarco in Brazil.

On 14 November 2025, the English High Court ruled that BHP’s UK and Australian entities are liable under Brazilian law for the disaster, which killed 19 people and caused widespread environmental damage along the Doce River. ^[18]

Key points from BHP and court documents:

The judgment is part of a mass group action representing around 600,000 claimants, with potential claims estimated at up to £36 billion by some legal firms and media outlets. ^[19]
BHP has confirmed it intends to appeal and argues the UK case duplicates extensive remediation and compensation efforts already under way in Brazil. ^[20]
Damages will be considered in later trial stages, currently expected to conclude around 2028–2029, meaning the ruling is financially significant but not an immediate cash call. ^[21]

As of 31 October 2025, BHP estimates an aggregate provision of about US$5.5 billion for its Samarco‑related obligations, including Brazilian settlements and expected outflows over the next few years. ^[22]

External analysts such as RBC Capital Markets have suggested BHP’s incremental exposure from the UK ruling could be in the region of US$2.2 billion, though this remains highly uncertain and subject to appeals and any offsetting settlements. ^[23]

For investors, the takeaway is that legal risk remains a material – but long‑dated – overhang on the BHP story.

Under the hood: earnings, copper growth and potash pipeline

Today’s share‑price moves also sit in the context of BHP’s latest financial and operational trends.

FY25 results (year to 30 June 2025)

BHP delivered underlying EBITDA of US$26 billion at a 53% margin, continuing its long‑term track record of >50% margins. ^[24]
Underlying attributable profit came in at roughly US$10.2 billion, down about 26% year‑on‑year and the weakest since 2020, largely due to lower iron ore and coal prices. ^[25]
BHP declared a total FY25 dividend of US$1.10 per share (US$0.50 interim and US$0.60 final), its smallest annual payout since 2017 but still slightly ahead of some analyst expectations. ^[26]

Operationally, BHP is steadily tilting toward so‑called “future‑facing” commodities:

Copper production exceeded 2 million tonnes for the first time, up about 28% over three years, with strong contributions from Escondida and other Chilean assets. ^[27]
Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) set a new record at around 290 Mt of production, reinforcing BHP’s position as one of the world’s lowest‑cost major iron ore producers. ^[28]
Management expects to invest roughly US$11 billion per year in capital and exploration over each of the next two years, before moderating spend thereafter. ^[29]

Latest quarterly production

In its September‑quarter operational review (FY26 Q1):

Copper output rose about 4% year‑on‑year to roughly 494,000 tonnes, supported by higher grades and improved performance at key operations. ^[30]
Iron ore volumes dipped nearly 2%, mainly due to scheduled maintenance and the rebuild of Port Hedland’s Car Dumper 3, but full‑year iron ore guidance was left unchanged. ^[31]

Together, these numbers underpin the narrative that BHP is increasingly a copper‑and‑potash growth story sitting on top of a giant iron ore cash engine. Potash development at Jansen in Canada, alongside copper options in the Americas, features prominently in its strategy and investor materials. ^[32]

Leadership and succession: Geraldine Slattery in the wings

While not new today, leadership transition remains a medium‑term factor for BHP shareholders.

Multiple reports since September suggest Geraldine Slattery, president of BHP’s Australia operations, is the leading internal candidate to succeed CEO Mike Henry by around mid‑2026, which would make her the company’s first female chief executive in its 140‑year history. ^[33]
BHP’s new chair, former banking executive Ross McEwan, took over earlier this year and is overseeing the succession process. ^[34]

The failure of the latest Anglo approach is already being framed in some commentary as a “swan song” moment for Henry’s deal‑making ambitions, potentially clearing the way for a successor to focus on disciplined project execution rather than blockbuster M&A. ^[35]

How the market is reading BHP stock right now

Putting it all together, today’s BHP share price reflects a tug‑of‑war between supportive commodity fundamentals and elevated headline risk.

Supportive factors for the bull case

Copper prices around US$10,700 per tonne (≈US$5/lb) remain near multi‑year highs, driven by demand from AI data centres, grid upgrades and electric vehicles. ^[36]
Iron ore continues to trade above US$100/t, despite China’s slowing property sector, thanks in part to supply frictions and targeted bans that tighten availability of certain grades. ^[37]
BHP’s record copper and iron ore output, >50% EBITDA margin and substantial growth capex give it strong leverage to any sustained upturn in commodity prices. ^[38]
The decision to walk away from Anglo reassures some investors that the company is not willing to over‑stretch its balance sheet for scale alone. ^[39]

Risks that keep the bears interested

The UK Fundão ruling has crystallised legal liability and could ultimately add billions of dollars to BHP’s already sizeable Samarco provisions, depending on appeals and damages phases. ^[40]
The China iron ore dispute shows how exposed BHP remains to a single customer base and to increasingly assertive, state‑directed negotiations via CMRG. ^[41]
BHP’s earnings and dividends are already off their peak, and the company has signalled a willingness to carry higher net debt to fund growth, which can amplify both upside and downside in a volatile macro environment. ^[42]
The outcome of Anglo’s vote on the Anglo‑Teck transaction on 9 December will shape the competitive copper landscape and determine whether BHP faces a newly empowered rival or fresh M&A opportunities later in 2026. ^[43]

Short‑term traders are likely to focus on headline risk and commodity price swings, while longer‑term investors will be watching whether BHP can turn its copper and potash pipeline into earnings growth without repeating high‑priced takeover attempts. TechStock²+2IG+2

Key catalysts to watch after today

Over the coming weeks and months, BHP holders and watchers are likely to track:

Anglo / Teck shareholder votes and any regulatory feedback on the planned copper mega‑merger. ^[44]
Further communications from BHP and CMRG on the iron ore contract dispute and product‑specific bans. ^[45]
Developments in the UK group action appeals process and any adjustments to BHP’s Samarco provisions at future result updates. ^[46]
BHP’s February 2026 half‑year results, where management will update on capital allocation, project timelines and any fallout from Anglo, China and Fundão. ^[47]
CEO succession news, particularly any confirmation around Geraldine Slattery’s expected promotion and the board’s strategic priorities under new leadership. ^[48]

Bottom line for 24 November 2025

As of today, BHP’s share price is nudging higher, but its risk profile is more complicated than a simple iron ore play.

The end of the Anglo American takeover pursuit calms fears of a debt‑fuelled mega‑merger and refocuses attention on the company’s organic copper and potash growth pipeline. ^[49]
At the same time, China’s targeted bans on some BHP iron ore products and a landmark UK court ruling over the Fundão dam disaster underline that geopolitical and legal risks remain material. ^[50]

For readers and investors, BHP on 24 November 2025 is best thought of as a high‑quality but highly exposed cyclical giant: leveraged to copper and steelmaking materials that the energy transition needs, yet subject to political, legal and environmental currents that can change sentiment quickly.

Important note: This article is general information only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Always consider your own objectives and speak with a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

BHP shares slip after unconfirmed reports of Chinese iron ore ban | Finance Report | ABC NEWS