Sydney, Jan 31, 2026, 16:50 AEDT — Market closed
- BHP ended the last session lower as miners gave back some January gains.
- The week ahead brings a central bank decision and a busy earnings run.
- Copper’s jump to a fresh record has sharpened the focus on metals volatility.
BHP closed down 1.82% at A$50.57 on Friday, after dropping as much as 3.3% at its session low.
The slide tracked a broader pullback in miners and gold stocks into month-end, with the S&P/ASX 200 ending 0.7% lower, a Reuters report said. It also noted miners fell 3.5% on the day, while Rio Tinto dropped 3.5%.
That mattered because BHP has pushed past Commonwealth Bank of Australia as the benchmark’s biggest stock by market value, the report said, leaving the index more sensitive to swings in big miners. Marc Jocum, senior product and investment strategist at Global X ETFs, warned the next leg depends on results: “The earnings season will be central in determining whether recent gains are justified at the stock level.” Indo Premier
Rates sit on top of the list. Markets were pricing in more than a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike at Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, taking the cash rate — the RBA’s benchmark interest rate — to 3.6%, the Reuters report said.
Commodities are the other moving part. Copper surged 11% on Thursday to a record $14,527.50 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, and a Reuters poll lifted the median 2026 copper forecast to $11,975 a ton. Natalie Scott-Gray at StoneX cautioned the run could snap back, saying prices above $13,000 “as unsustainable.” Reuters
Outside Australia, the tone on Friday turned rough as U.S. markets digested Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair and a sharp selloff in precious metals. “Markets are calibrating to Trump’s pick of Kevin Warsh … and the outlook for monetary policy,” said Michael Hans, chief investment officer at Citizens Wealth. Reuters
For BHP, the near-term question is whether higher metals prices help more than higher rates hurt. Stronger commodity prices can lift earnings expectations, but tighter policy tends to cool risk appetite and can move the currency, which matters for exporters.
There is a risk case too. If the copper surge proves mostly speculative, a reversal can drag on miners quickly, especially after a strong month. And if the RBA sounds more hawkish than markets expect, rate-sensitive parts of the market could wobble, spilling into cyclicals.
When trading resumes on Monday, investors will be watching commodities first and the central bank on Tuesday. BHP’s next major company event is its interim report on Feb. 17.
