New York, February 4, 2026, 00:51 EST — The market has closed.
- BHP climbed roughly 4.8% late Tuesday, following a widespread rally in mining shares
- Commodities have shifted sharply, driven by a stronger dollar and increased futures margin requirements
- Focus turns to BHP’s half-year results due February 17
BHP’s U.S.-listed shares climbed roughly 4.8% late Tuesday, closing near $72.74. The stock fluctuated between $70.70 and $73.00, with around 5.1 million shares traded, according to market data, setting the stage for active trading in the next session.
Rio Tinto climbed roughly 4.2% to $96.37. Vale advanced around 5.4%, hitting $17.00, and Freeport-McMoRan jumped about 6.4% to $64.67.
This move counts as miners react to a commodities market that’s been jittery day to day, with swings in currencies and derivatives hitting as hard as the physical trade. “A stronger U.S. dollar is also adding pressure on precious metals and other commodities, including oil and base metals,” said Vivek Dhar at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Meanwhile, CME Group bumped up margin requirements — the cash traders must put up to hold futures — while analysts pointed to weaker pre-holiday buying in China ahead of the Lunar New Year break starting February 15. 1
Bullion’s wild swings have made it tough to gauge “risk appetite” from one market alone. On Tuesday, gold and silver staged a sharp rebound. Peter Grant of Zaner Metals described the recent dip as “corrective within the long-term uptrend.” Jeffrey Christian at CPM Group added, “We expect prices to resume their longer term rise at a more sustainable pace.” 2
BHP relies heavily on copper as a major revenue source alongside iron ore, but the market remains uncertain over a fair price that balances tight supply without betting on a steady climb. A Reuters poll shows the median copper price forecast for 2026 at roughly $11,975 a tonne—significantly below the London Metal Exchange’s cash record near $14,527.50 reached during January’s spike. 3
The company rolled out a longer-term play this week, naming 10 early-stage exploration and tech firms for its 2026 Xplor program intake. Each will snag an equity-free $500,000 grant. “Exploration is evolving quickly,” Tim O’Connor noted, while Marley Palin added, “The 2026 cohort reflects how broad and dynamic early-stage discovery has become.” 4
Local investors have had almost no new information to react to. A search of ASX announcements revealed no updates from BHP from January 29 through February 4. 5
BHP’s half-year results drop on February 17 around 8:00 a.m. Melbourne time. Investors will focus on dividend updates and capital returns, alongside insights into copper demand and steelmaking sectors. 6
The rally in miners remains a play on metals, which have been ruthless to those chasing the move. Should the dollar strengthen again or physical demand fade as the holiday lull sets in, BHP and its peers could quickly surrender their gains.
U.S. cash markets remain closed for a few more hours, leaving futures and spot metal prices to lead the way. The real focus, though, will be on February 17, when BHP releases its half-year results.
