BigBear.ai (NYSE: BBAI) Soars on Q3 Beat and $250M Ask Sage Deal — Shares Jump ~19% Pre‑Market on Nov. 11, 2025

11 November 2025

Stock pops pre‑market: BBAI traded around $6.81 (+~19%) before the open after Monday’s results and M&A news. ^[1]
Q3 2025 at a glance: Revenue $33.1M (‑20% y/y); gross margin 22.4%; GAAP net income $2.5M (driven largely by non‑cash derivative revaluation); Adjusted EBITDA –$9.4M; backlog $376M. ^[2]
Cash & outlook:Record cash $456.6M; FY25 revenue guide reaffirmed at $125M–$140M. ^[3]
Deal news: BigBear.ai signed a definitive agreement to acquire Ask Sage for $250M; closing targeted late Q4 2025 or early Q1 2026. Ask Sage projects ~$25M 2025 ARR (non‑GAAP). ^[4]
Analyst move today:Cantor Fitzgerald raised its BBAI price target to $7 while keeping a positive stance. ^[5]

Market reaction: Why BBAI is spiking this morning

BigBear.ai’s pre‑market surge follows a one‑two punch of better‑than‑expected top‑line and a transformational acquisition announced after Monday’s close. Barron’s flagged BBAI among today’s biggest pre‑market movers on the back of the Ask Sage deal and a revenue beat. ^[6]

Q3 2025 by the numbers

Management highlighted mixed operating trends: a leaner quarter against tough comps and delayed government program volume, but a stronger balance sheet and robust pipeline.

Revenue:$33.1M (vs. $41.5M a year ago; –20% y/y), primarily on lower volume in certain U.S. Army programs. ^[7]
Gross margin:22.4% (25.9% a year ago). ^[8]
GAAP net income:$2.5M (vs. –$15.1M), largely driven by non‑cash changes in derivative liabilities tied to 2029 notes and warrants. ^[9]
Adjusted EBITDA:–$9.4M (vs. +$0.9M), reflecting lower margin and higher SG&A. ^[10]
Backlog:$376M as of Sept. 30, 2025. ^[11]
Cash:$456.6M (record balance) positioning the company for M&A and growth investments. ^[12]
FY25 outlook:Revenue $125M–$140M, unchanged; management does not expect Ask Sage to materially impact 2025 consolidated results given the closing timeline. ^[13]

The Ask Sage acquisition: what’s in the deal — and why it matters

BigBear.ai signed a definitive agreement to acquire Ask Sage, a fast‑growing Generative AI platform focused on secure distribution of models and agentic AI in defense, national security, and other highly regulated sectors.

Strategic highlights

Purchase price:$250M total, structured as $140M in cash plus $110M in either additional cash or BigBear.ai common stock (at BBAI’s option), subject to customary adjustments. ^[14]
Consideration mechanics (if stock elected): the number of shares issued depends on a 20‑day VWAP collar with defined share counts above/below thresholds. ^[15]
Scale & traction: Ask Sage supports 100,000+ users across 16,000 government teams and hundreds of commercial organizations; it is in production at scale in sensitive environments. ^[16]
Financial contribution: Ask Sage is projected to deliver ~$25M in 2025 ARR (non‑GAAP). ^[17]
Timing: Closing late Q4 2025 or early Q1 2026, pending approvals (including HSR) and other customary conditions. ^[18]

CEO Kevin McAleenan framed the combination as creating a secure, integrated AI platform that unifies software, data, and mission services—tailored for defense and other regulated sectors. Management also pointed to potential acceleration in U.S. government tech spending next year. ^[19]

Street reaction on Nov. 11

Before the bell, Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its BBAI price target to $7, citing the enhanced positioning in secure GenAI and regulated markets post‑deal. That note arrived alongside the pre‑market rally. ^[20]

What to watch next

Regulatory & shareholder milestones for Ask Sage (HSR expiration/termination; Ask Sage stockholder approval) and closing timeline into late Q4 or early Q1. ^[21]
Program ramps & awards in defense, border security, and international markets as the FY26 budget cycle approaches. ^[22]
Margin path back toward breakeven on Adjusted EBITDA as integration proceeds and SG&A normalizes. ^[23]

Context: a volatile 2025, but a stronger balance sheet now

BigBear.ai shares have seesawed this year amid restatement issues and guidance resets earlier in 2025, which pressured sentiment. The company now emphasizes record liquidity and a targeted M&A strategy to consolidate its niche in secure AI. ^[24]

Key takeaways for investors

Catalyst today: A credible M&A target with live federal adoption, coupled with reaffirmed guidance and a sizable cash cushion. ^[25]
Execution risk: Integration, timing of federal awards, and the cost to scale commercial go‑to‑market remain the swing factors. ^[26]
Valuation watch: With pre‑market levels implying a sharp re‑rating, track whether analyst estimate revisions (post‑deal) keep pace with price. ^[27]

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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Mateusz Kaczmarek Latest posts

A technology and finance expert writing for TS2.tech. He analyzes developments in satellites, telecommunications, and artificial intelligence, with a focus on their impact on global markets. Author of industry reports and market commentary, often cited in tech and business media. Passionate about innovation and the digital economy.

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