New York, April 28, 2026, 15:01 EDT
Shares of BigBear.ai jumped roughly 8% Tuesday afternoon to $4.03, as trading volume hit about 50.5 million. The defense AI firm, which is set to announce first-quarter results next week, saw its stock swing between $3.65 and $4.08 during the session.
Timing could play a role here. BigBear.ai will post its first-quarter numbers after the bell on May 5. Analysts, per MarketBeat, are looking for a loss of 6 cents per share on roughly $33.6 million in revenue. This next release should show if demand is finally leveling off after BigBear.ai wrapped up 2025 on a soft note.
The company plans to issue its earnings report around 4:15 p.m. ET, with a conference call following at 4:30 p.m. ET. BigBear.ai bills itself as a supplier of “mission-ready” AI—software built for active roles in national security, travel, and trade, not just experimental pilots. BigBear.ai
On the radar: Ask Sage’s first full year under the BigBear.ai umbrella. The $250 million deal wrapped up Dec. 31, with BigBear.ai noting Ask Sage counted over 100,000 users spread across 16,000 government teams and hundreds of commercial outfits. “Operating at scale in mission-critical environments,” is how CEO Kevin McAleenan described it at the time. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
BigBear.ai is pitching 2026 as a fresh start. Back in March, the company reported $462 million in cash and investments at the close of 2025, slashed its debt load by over 90%, and guided for revenue between $135 million and $165 million for 2026. McAleenan called this the “strongest financial position” BigBear.ai has ever had. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
BigBear.ai’s 2025 revenue slipped 19.3% to $127.7 million, with net losses widening to $293.9 million, according to a securities filing. The company blamed the top-line drop mostly on a pullback in Army work and the absence of some one-off 2024 contracts.
The stock’s jump came even as bigger AI software players saw mixed action. Palantir, the government-data heavyweight, slipped roughly 1% this afternoon. C3.ai managed a 2% gain. BigBear.ai’s market cap hovered around $1.8 billion—dwarfed by Palantir’s $364 billion valuation.
The sell side isn’t aligned. In March, Cantor Fitzgerald dropped its price target on BigBear.ai to $5 from $6, maintaining its Neutral stance and pointing to trouble from federal program delays and shutdown risks. H.C. Wainwright also lowered its target, this time to $6 from $8, but stuck with its Buy call, highlighting a stronger balance sheet as a reason the company can keep investing in growth.
Dilution’s lurking. BigBear.ai shareholders gave the nod this month to bump up authorized common shares—doubling the cap to 1 billion from 500 million. The tally: 231.1 million for, 53.0 million opposed, just about 5.0 million abstentions, according to the 8-K filing.
The approval on its own doesn’t create more shares. Still, the proxy laid out that if new shares get issued down the line, it could mean dilution for current holders—lower earnings per share, less book value per share, and reduced voting influence. That same 2025 filing also flagged a risk: backlog isn’t guaranteed revenue, especially if clients, including federal agencies, pull funding or cancel deals.
At the moment, BigBear.ai shares are moving mostly on anticipation ahead of next week, rather than any new company news. Investors have a tight focus: can the firm leverage its bigger cash pile and recently acquired AI tech to secure more consistent revenue? The risk is a repeat of last quarter, with attention swinging back to Army contract softness, red ink, and the overhang of potential share dilution.
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