Dec. 18, 2025 — Birkenstock Holding plc (NYSE: BIRK) delivered a classic “beat-and-drop” session: strong fiscal 2025 results and record revenue were overshadowed by a more cautious fiscal 2026 outlook that bakes in tariff and currency pressure. [1]
As of the latest available trade on Dec. 18, Birkenstock shares were at $42.58, down about 8% on the day, after swinging between $39.73 and $46.75 in heavy volume.
The market’s message was blunt: investors liked what Birkenstock just did, but they’re repricing what it may earn next—especially if tariffs and foreign-exchange (FX) headwinds prove sticky.
What’s happening with Birkenstock stock today
Birkenstock stock fell sharply after the company published fiscal 2025 results (year ended Sept. 30, 2025) alongside fiscal 2026 targets. [2]
Trading action reflected a fast shift from “results were strong” to “guidance is the story”:
- Intraday low: $39.73
- Intraday high: $46.75
- Last trade shown: $42.58 (Dec. 18)
Several outlets characterized the move as driven primarily by the forward outlook—particularly margin assumptions under tariffs—rather than by any collapse in underlying demand. [3]
Fiscal 2025 results: Birkenstock beat its own targets
Birkenstock reported fiscal 2025 revenue of €2.1 billion, up 16% reported and 18% in constant currency, topping its prior guidance range (15%–17%). [4]
Profitability also held up well:
- Gross profit margin:59.1% (up 30 bps year over year) [5]
- Adjusted EBITDA:€667 million (up 20%) with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.8% [6]
- Net profit:€348 million (up 82%); EPS:€1.87 [7]
- Adjusted EPS:€1.85 (up 45%) [8]
Growth was broad-based geographically:
- Americas: +15% reported (+18% constant currency)
- EMEA: +14%
- APAC: +31% reported (+34% constant currency) [9]
And by channel, Birkenstock continued to see wholesale/B2B (business-to-business) outpace direct-to-consumer (DTC):
- B2B revenue: +20% reported (+21% constant currency)
- DTC revenue: +11% reported (+12% constant currency) [10]
Management also emphasized product mix momentum—especially the continued expansion of closed-toe footwear, which lifted average selling prices and increased closed-toe share of revenue to 38% for the year. [11]
Q4 snapshot: Another beat, but not enough to calm guidance fears
For the fiscal fourth quarter (ended Sept. 30, 2025), Birkenstock posted:
- Revenue:€526 million (+15% reported; +20% constant currency) [12]
- EPS:€0.51 (vs. €0.28 a year earlier) [13]
- Gross margin:58.1%, down year over year, mainly due to FX translation and incremental U.S. tariffs [14]
The quarter itself looked solid; the anxiety came from what management expects those FX and tariff items to do in fiscal 2026.
The real catalyst: Fiscal 2026 guidance implies margin compression
Birkenstock’s fiscal 2026 targets call for continued growth—but at lower margins and with slower (reported) top-line expansion once currency is factored in:
Revenue
- 13%–15% constant-currency growth
- Translating to €2.30–€2.35 billion reported revenue (about 10%–12% reported growth), with a 300–350 bps currency translation headwind assumed at current exchange rates [15]
Margins
- Gross profit margin:57.0%–57.5%, including ~100 bps headwind from FX and 100 bps from incremental tariffs [16]
- Adjusted EBITDA:at least €700 million, implying 30.0%–30.5% EBITDA margin (also inclusive of FX and tariffs) [17]
Earnings / cash deployment
- Adjusted EPS:€1.90–€2.05, inclusive of ~€0.15–€0.20 per share FX impact (and excluding any added benefit from buybacks) [18]
- Capex:€110–€130 million
- Planned share repurchases:$200 million in fiscal 2026, subject to market conditions [19]
In other words: management sees demand, but it’s planning for a world where the “tax” from tariffs and currency is larger—and investors immediately discounted that.
Guidance vs. the Street
According to Investing.com’s summary of consensus expectations, Birkenstock’s €2.30–€2.35 billion revenue outlook came in below a consensus estimate around €2.39 billion, and its €700 million minimum adjusted EBITDA outlook trailed a cited consensus expectation of roughly €757.8 million. [20]
Tariffs: why this time could hurt more than last time
Reuters reported that Birkenstock expects a 100-basis-point hit to annual gross margin from U.S. import duties, and highlighted that the U.S. imposed a 15% import tariff on most goods from the EU under a deal reached in July. [21]
A key nuance from the post-earnings discussion: Birkenstock suggested it managed to offset much of the tariff impact in fiscal 2025 partly because a large share of goods for that year had shipped before tariff increases—something it does not expect to repeat in fiscal 2026. [22]
Management’s mitigation toolkit, as described by Reuters and in the earnings call transcript, includes:
- targeted price increases,
- vendor negotiations,
- manufacturing efficiency initiatives,
- product optimization. [23]
Translation: Birkenstock is betting its brand pricing power can cover at least part of the policy shock—but it is not assuming a clean offset, which is exactly what spooked the market.
Strategy update: stores, scarcity, and buybacks
Even with a tougher margin setup, Birkenstock is still investing for growth:
- It ended fiscal 2025 with 97 owned retail stores after opening 30 net new stores during the year. [24]
- It expects to open about 40 additional owned retail stores globally in fiscal 2026. [25]
- It plans $200 million of share repurchases in fiscal 2026, after repurchasing and cancelling 3.9 million shares for €176 million in fiscal 2025. [26]
Management also reiterated a “controlled growth” stance—saying production capacity and the desire to maintain scarcity are limiting factors, even as consumer demand remains robust. [27]
From an equity-story perspective, that’s a deliberate choice: Birkenstock is positioning itself less like a volume shoe company and more like a premium brand that defends margins and mystique—except now it has to defend that stance against tariffs and FX math.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: Wall Street still sees upside
Despite Thursday’s selloff, published analyst snapshots continue to skew bullish.
StockAnalysis.com, for example, shows 12 analysts with a consensus rating of “Strong Buy” and an average price target of $67.83 (with targets ranging from $60 to $77). [28]
Recent analyst notes highlighted by Benzinga include:
- BTIG: Buy, $72 price target (Dec. 15)
- Telsey Advisory Group: Outperform, $70 (Dec. 12)
- Guggenheim: initiated Buy, $60 (Dec. 10) [29]
Reuters also quoted Guggenheim’s Simeon Siegel framing the guidance shortfall as more “externality-driven” than a sign of deteriorating core demand—consistent with the idea that tariffs/FX are doing most of the damage to expectations. [30]
Independent market commentary leaned into that same debate. A Seeking Alpha contributor argued the post-earnings dip could represent an attractive entry point if Birkenstock is again being conservative in guidance. [31]
What investors will watch next
Birkenstock handed the market a clear checklist for the next few quarters—less about “do people still want clogs?” and more about “can the company protect economics under policy and currency pressure?”
Key items to monitor:
1) Evidence that price/mix offsets are working
The company attributed fiscal 2025 growth partly to higher average selling prices and product mix (including closed-toe growth). Whether that continues without demand erosion will matter. [32]
2) The DTC vs. B2B balance
B2B outgrew DTC in fiscal 2025; investors often view DTC strength as higher-quality growth because it can support better brand control and (sometimes) margin. [33]
3) FX and tariff progression through the year
On the earnings call, management outlined a front-loaded FX impact (larger headwinds in the first half), which implies comparisons could “look better” later if exchange rates stabilize. [34]
4) A near-term narrative catalyst: Capital Markets Day
Birkenstock’s CFO announced plans for a Capital Markets Day in late January in New York City, where the company intends to lay out a deeper multi-year view. [35]
Bottom line
Birkenstock’s Dec. 18 update delivered two truths at the same time:
- Fiscal 2025 performance was strong—revenue growth beat targets, profitability held up, and the brand kept expanding globally. [36]
- Fiscal 2026 is being guided with meaningful built-in pressure from tariffs and FX, pushing margins lower and leaving the outlook below some market expectations—triggering the stock’s sharp decline. [37]
The stock move suggests investors are willing to pay for Birkenstock’s brand power—just not at yesterday’s price when next year’s margin math got tougher. [38]
References
1. www.sec.gov, 2. www.sec.gov, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.sec.gov, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. www.sec.gov, 18. www.sec.gov, 19. www.sec.gov, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.sec.gov, 25. www.sec.gov, 26. www.sec.gov, 27. www.sec.gov, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. www.benzinga.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. seekingalpha.com, 32. www.sec.gov, 33. www.sec.gov, 34. www.investing.com, 35. www.investing.com, 36. www.sec.gov, 37. www.sec.gov, 38. www.sec.gov
