New York, Jan 31, 2026, 12:35 EST — Market closed
Bitcoin dipped roughly 5.1% to $78,638 on Saturday, dropping beneath the $80,000 mark and continuing its slide from late January. Over the last 24 hours, it fluctuated between $84,398 and $78,638. Ether took a bigger hit, tumbling 11.6% to around $2,399.
U.S. markets are closed for the weekend, shifting crypto desks’ attention away from a traditional “close” to watching what cracks emerge as liquidity fades—and how things unfold once cash markets start up again Monday.
This week’s selling followed the usual suspects: U.S. interest rate bets, the dollar’s moves, and the durability of risk appetite in tech-heavy markets. Crypto hasn’t acted like an independent narrative but more like a swift-moving macro indicator.
Bitcoin dipped to a two-month trough on Friday amid speculation the incoming Federal Reserve chair might tighten liquidity. Such moves typically weigh on speculative bets. “Pulling the rug out … all the hedges against balance sheet expansion … start to sell,” noted Damien Boey, strategist at Wilson Asset Management. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, cited “fears around AI exuberance” following Microsoft’s 10% share plunge. Reuters
Flows offered no relief. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, which hold bitcoin and trade like stocks, suffered net outflows totaling $509.7 million on Jan. 30, following a $817.8 million exit the previous day, according to Farside Investors. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust alone saw $528.3 million leave on Jan. 30. Meanwhile, Fidelity Investments’s bitcoin fund attracted $7.3 million, and ARK Invest’s ARKB gained $8.3 million.
Politics took center stage in the rate debate Friday when Donald Trump named Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair when Powell’s term ends in May, Reuters reported. Warsh has pushed for a “regime change” at the central bank, advocating for a leaner balance sheet. The pick could trigger a fierce Senate fight, with Republican Senator Thom Tillis pledging to block Fed nominees until a Justice Department investigation into Powell wraps up. Reuters
U.S. politics threw another curveball into the weekend. The federal government slid into a likely short shutdown on Saturday after Congress missed the midnight deadline to pass a funding deal. The House isn’t slated to consider the Senate-approved measure until Monday, Reuters reported.
Weak data from China weighed on sentiment overseas. The country’s official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3 in January, down from 50.1 in December, dipping below the crucial 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction.
U.S. rate expectations will stay front and center this week. The Institute for Supply Management is scheduled to release its Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 a.m. EST on the first business day of the month. Traders will be on alert for any unexpected data that could move bond yields and the dollar.
The next major macro event arrives Friday, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Employment Situation report for January 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET on Feb. 6.
The risk for crypto is that outflows persist once U.S. ETF trading restarts and the Fed narrative drags into a drawn-out political battle. If so, bitcoin slipping below $80,000 might trigger more defensive moves instead of bargain hunting.
Traders are eyeing Monday’s ETF flow numbers closely, looking for early clues on Warsh’s confirmation in Washington. Then comes the Feb. 6 U.S. jobs report, which could provide a sharper signal on rates — and potentially prompt fresh moves in bitcoin.
