Bitcoin Price Today, 16 November 2025: BTC Holds Near $95,600 as Extreme Fear Meets Rising On‑Chain Activity

Bitcoin price today, 16 November 2025, is stabilizing in the mid‑$95,000s after a brutal slide below the psychological $100,000 level earlier this week. Across major exchanges and data providers, BTC is trading in a tight band around $95,600–$95,900, broadly flat on the day but still down about 6% over the last seven days and more than 20% below its early‑October all‑time high near $126,000. ^[1]

At the same time, on‑chain activity has jumped to a 30‑day high in transaction volume, while sentiment remains locked in “extreme fear.” ^[2]

BTC price snapshot for 16 November 2025

Here’s how Bitcoin looks at the time of writing (16 November 2025):

Spot price: roughly $95,600–$95,900 depending on venue (CoinGecko, NewsBTC and BlockchainReporter all show BTC in that range). ^[3]
Live quote example: one major feed shows $95,638, with today’s intraday high near $96,531 and low around $94,859.
24‑hour move: essentially flat, between ‑0.4% and +0.5% depending on data source. ^[4]
7‑day performance: down just over 5–6% after losing the $100,000 handle twice this month. ^[5]
Market cap & dominance: around $1.9T with ~59% dominance of total crypto market capitalization. ^[6]

Prediction markets also see consolidation: on Polymarket, contracts for “Bitcoin price on November 16” put the highest odds on BTC closing between $94,000 and $98,000, with sub‑$94,000 or a return above $100,000 seen as much less likely. ^[7]

What’s moving Bitcoin today?

1. Macro jitters and fading Fed rate‑cut hopes

Bitcoin’s November slide is still being driven by a sharp shift in macro expectations:

Federal Reserve expectations: Markets now price only about a 40% chance of a December rate cut, down from roughly 90% earlier this month, as multiple Fed officials signal they’re in no rush to ease policy. ^[8]
Risk‑off environment: Reuters reports that BTC dropped to a six‑month low around $95,885 on Friday amid a broader sell‑off in equities and other risk assets, as investors reassess how long rates may stay “higher for longer.” ^[9]

The takeaway: higher‑for‑longer interest rates and lingering economic uncertainty are keeping pressure on risk assets in general, and Bitcoin is still trading more like a high‑beta macro asset than a pure “digital gold” hedge. ^[10]

2. ETF flows and liquidity: a double‑edged sword

Spot Bitcoin ETFs remain a central part of today’s price story:

Huge inflows, thin cushion: CryptoNews highlights that roughly $59 billion has flowed into the first ten U.S. spot BTC ETFs since January 2024, with an average cost basis around $90,146 per BTC. With spot price only modestly above that level, aggregate unrealized profit has shrunk to about $2.9B (≈4.7%). ^[11]
Heavy outflows in one session: The same analysis notes a single session with ~$869.9M in net ETF outflows, amplifying the recent sell‑off and helping push market sentiment toward some of its weakest readings of 2025. ^[12]
Volatile flows globally: Bitget points out that Bitcoin ETFs saw $524M of inflows on 12 November, followed soon after by $866M of outflows, a swing that helped drive BTC to a six‑month low just under $96,000. ^[13]

In other words, ETFs are now both a structural source of demand and a source of short‑term selling pressure. When sentiment flips, ETF redemptions can quickly push spot prices lower, particularly in a market already on edge. ^[14]

Sentiment: “Extreme fear” still dominates

The emotional backdrop to today’s price action is unusually fragile:

Fear & Greed Index at rock‑bottom levels: CoinDesk reported yesterday that the widely followed Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 10, its lowest reading since late February, reflecting “extreme fear” after BTC failed—again—to hold above $100,000. ^[15]
Still fearful today: A fresh market wrap from BlockchainReporter shows the index has only recovered to 18, which still sits firmly in “extreme fear” territory even as prices stabilize near $95,900. ^[16]

Historically, such sentiment extremes have often coincided with important medium‑term bottoms in Bitcoin, although that’s far from guaranteed and drawdowns can continue even in deeply fearful markets. ^[17]

On‑chain data: transaction volume spikes as long‑term holders rotate

Despite subdued prices, on‑chain activity is picking up in ways that traders are watching closely.

1. Transaction volume hits a 30‑day high

BlockchainReporter notes that Bitcoin transaction volume has surged to about $45.6B in the last 24 hours, a 30‑day peak, even as price drifts sideways. ^[18]

Over the past month, BTC price is down roughly 12.1%, but this volume spike suggests large players are repositioning and may be preparing for the next big move—up or down. ^[19]

2. Peak long‑term holder (LTH) rotation

Multiple reports show long‑term investors finally taking profits en masse:

Reuters, citing on‑chain data, reports that long‑term holders have sold about 815,000 BTC over the last 30 days, the largest such distribution since early 2024. ^[20]
A detailed explainer from Ki‑Ecke, reflecting the same data, links the sell‑off to fading Fed cut expectations, ETF redemptions and a broad risk‑off move in global markets, describing the move as a classic “liquidity and sentiment squeeze” after a strong run. ^[21]
AMBCrypto adds that LTH activity is at its busiest levels of 2025, with regional flow data showing APAC whalespushed BTC from $126K toward $100K, while U.S. institutions are now dominating the sell‑side pressure below that threshold. ^[22]

AMBCrypto and several analysts flag $92,000 as a critical on‑chain support zone: losing it, they argue, would open the door to deeper downside, while holding it keeps a larger bullish reversal on the table. ^[23]

Technical picture: death cross scare vs. potential bottoming

Today’s chart commentary is dominated by two big themes: a looming death cross and a cluster of key support and resistance levels.

1. Fourth death cross of this cycle

FXLeaders warns that Bitcoin is on the verge of its fourth “death cross” in the current cycle, where the 50‑day moving average crosses below the 200‑day moving average—a pattern many traders associate with deeper downside risk. ^[24]

In that analysis, BTC is quoted near $95,800, more than 20% below its recent $126,000 peak, with the author cautioning that a drop below $90,000 becomes more likely if the death‑cross signal confirms. ^[25]
Historically, however, several prior death crosses in Bitcoin have actually coincided with late‑stage sell‑offs that marked or preceded medium‑term bottoms, a nuance some traders are emphasizing today. ^[26]

2. Support and resistance levels traders are watching

Different analysts are highlighting a broadly similar technical map for BTC right now:

Immediate range: NewsBTC notes that over the last day Bitcoin has largely held between $95,000 and $96,000, with a modest bounce leaving price around $95,752, up ~0.5% on the session. ^[27]
Key supports:
- $94,500–$92,000: CryptoNews describes this as a major demand zone. A sustained break below $92,000 could expose $91,600 and then $83,000. ^[28]
- $92,000 line: AMBCrypto calls $92K the level that will “decide everything” for Bitcoin’s next big move. ^[29]
- $89,000–$91,000 zone: NewsBTC’s KillaXBT sees this region as the ideal area for new long entries if a “deep liquidity sweep” occurs, though any drop toward $85,000 would threaten the bullish case. ^[30]
Upside targets:
- $98,300: highlighted as a crucial resistance; bulls likely need to reclaim this level convincingly to reopen a path back to six figures. ^[31]
- $100,000: remains the psychological battleground. Multiple recent attempts to hold above this level have failed. ^[32]
- $103,000–$106,700: CryptoNews argues that a daily close back above $103,000 could flip the structure back in favor of bulls, with $106,700 as the next upside objective. ^[33]

In short, today’s price action sits almost perfectly in the middle of this support–resistance minefield, with traders split on whether we see one more flush toward $90K before any sustained rebound. ^[34]

Bulls vs. bears: Is Bitcoin undervalued or still overextended?

Opinions among analysts and commentators today are sharply divided.

The bullish case

Energy‑based valuation suggests ~70% upside: A valuation study cited by Nasdaq and The Motley Fool uses an energy‑cost model from Capriole Investments and estimates Bitcoin’s “fair value” at roughly $175,400 based on current mining energy input. Against today’s sub‑$100K price, that implies BTC could be around 70% undervalued if past relationships hold. ^[35]
Transaction volume + extreme fear: The combination of spiking on‑chain volume and a deeply fearful sentiment backdrop is often seen by contrarian traders as the kind of reset that can precede a new uptrend, especially after a 20%+ drawdown from all‑time highs. ^[36]
Institutional adoption continues: Bitget’s November rally analysis details new institutional entrants—ranging from university endowments increasing exposure to expanded ETF offerings in markets like Australia—supporting the idea that Bitcoin’s role as a mainstream portfolio asset is still strengthening despite short‑term volatility. ^[37]

The cautious / bearish case

Perfect storm of macro + ETFs + leverage: AInvest’s “Bitcoin’s Perfect Storm” note stresses that fading Fed‑cut hopes, $1.1B in ETF outflows, and more than $600M in leveraged liquidations have already erased Bitcoin’s 2025 gains, and the correction could persist well into mid‑2026 if policy and regulation don’t stabilize. ^[38]
Peak long‑term holder distribution: Both Reuters and Ki‑Ecke point to that 815,000 BTC offloaded by long‑term holders over 30 days as evidence that even “strong hands” are de‑risking, reducing one of the market’s traditional pillars of support. ^[39]
Technical headwinds: The looming death cross, repeated failures above $100K and the risk of losing the $92K–$90K support area all fuel narratives that Bitcoin may not be done correcting yet. ^[40]

What Bitcoin traders and investors are watching next

For 16 November 2025 and the week ahead, the market’s focus clusters around a few concrete themes:

Price holding (or losing) the $94K–$92K support band
- A clean breakdown could accelerate selling toward $90K or even $83K, while successful defenses here would strengthen the argument that BTC is carving out a new base. ^[41]
ETF flow data
- Another day of large net outflows could pressure price quickly, especially with sentiment already fragile; sustained return to inflows would be an early sign of institutional confidence returning. ^[42]
Macro headlines and Fed commentary
- Any shift in the perceived probability of near‑term rate cuts—or surprises in delayed U.S. economic data after the government shutdown—could tilt risk appetite sharply in either direction. ^[43]
On‑chain activity and transaction volume
- If the $45.6B transaction‑volume spike proves to be driven by accumulation rather than distribution, it may bolster the case for an eventual upside reversal. Continued high volume during price drops, by contrast, would suggest an ongoing exit by large holders. ^[44]
Technical confirmation or invalidation of the death cross signal
- Traders will be watching whether the death cross coincides with another leg down or instead marks a capitulation‑style low that sets up a longer‑term recovery. ^[45]

Quick FAQ: Bitcoin price today, 16 November 2025

What is Bitcoin’s price right now (16 November 2025)?
Bitcoin is trading in the mid‑$95,000s, roughly $95,600–$95,900 depending on the exchange, with today’s intraday range clustered between about $94,800 and $96,500. ^[46]

Why did Bitcoin fall below $100,000 this week?
A mix of fading Fed rate‑cut expectations, heavy spot ETF outflows (including a single session with around $870M in net redemptions), and profit‑taking by long‑term holders pushed BTC from its October all‑time high near $126K down to the mid‑$90Ks. ^[47]

Is Bitcoin in a bear market now?
By classic definitions, Bitcoin’s 20%+ drop from its recent peak and break of key support zones put it in a technical bear market, though many analysts still frame this as a mid‑cycle correction within a longer‑term uptrend driven by institutional adoption and halving‑driven supply dynamics. ^[48]

Could Bitcoin be undervalued at these levels?
Some models say yes: an energy‑based valuation approach from Capriole Investments, cited by Nasdaq, estimates a “fair value” near $175,400, implying roughly 70% upside from current prices. Others warn that macro risks and ETF flows could keep BTC under pressure for months. ^[49]

Important note: This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptoassets are highly volatile and you can lose all of your capital. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

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