Bitcoin (BTC) is once again trading like a macro asset on Thursday, December 18, 2025 (18.12.2025)—reacting to inflation data, rate expectations, and institutional positioning more than crypto-specific headlines alone.
At around 1:56 p.m. ET, Bitcoin was hovering near $86,000 after a volatile stretch that saw it push toward $90,000 and then slide back below $86,000, according to CoinDesk’s market reporting (syndicated via MEXC). [1]
By the latest check, BTC was trading around the mid-$85,000s, with the day’s range stretching from the mid-$85,000s to just above $89,000.
What’s driving the move is a familiar 2025 cocktail: cooler inflation, rate-cut bets, ETF flow momentum, and a market that still lacks conviction at the key $90K level.
Bitcoin price today: where BTC stands at 1:56 and what the numbers say
Bitcoin’s intraday story on Dec. 18 has been defined by sharp swings rather than a clean trend.
Key snapshot points from today’s coverage and market data:
- Around 1:56 p.m. ET: BTC hovered near $86,000 after giving back an earlier rally toward $90,000. [2]
- Today’s trading range (latest market read): roughly $85,355 (low) to $89,230 (high).
- Context on broader momentum: Barron’s described Bitcoin as showing “little momentum” on Thursday and highlighted how crypto-linked stocks can still move even when BTC chops sideways. [3]
The takeaway: the market is liquid and reactive, but buyers are struggling to sustain breakouts—especially as BTC approaches the psychological and technical ceiling near $90,000.
The big catalyst: U.S. CPI lands cooler than expected—and rate expectations shift again
The day’s biggest macro spark was U.S. inflation.
Reuters reported that the U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% year-on-year in November, which was below the 3.1% increase forecast in a Reuters poll—an undershoot that immediately fed expectations for easier policy ahead. [4]
That matters for Bitcoin because a softer inflation path can translate into:
- Lower real yields (or expectations of them)
- Improved liquidity conditions
- More risk appetite for volatile assets, including BTC
But this CPI print came with a wrinkle: Reuters noted that data collection was impacted by the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history, adding uncertainty to how traders interpret the release and what it means for the road ahead. [5]
Why the CPI boost didn’t stick for Bitcoin
Even with “good news” inflation, Bitcoin still struggled to hold gains. That’s because the market is juggling two competing ideas:
- Cooling inflation supports BTC (liquidity tailwind).
- But uncertainty about policy, data quality, and year-end positioning keeps traders cautious.
FXStreet’s analysis captured that tension, noting BTC and stocks perked up after the inflation figures—but also implying the bigger question is whether price can decisively reclaim the next level overhead. [6]
Central banks add more noise: BoE cuts, ECB holds, and the BoJ looms
Bitcoin isn’t just trading “U.S. CPI.” It’s trading the global rates narrative.
On Dec. 18, Reuters flagged a cluster of central bank developments and expectations that kept FX and risk assets moving:
- Bank of England: cut rates (and markets recalibrated the pace of future easing). [7]
- European Central Bank: held rates steady. [8]
- Bank of Japan: Reuters said markets looked “almost certain” to see a hike to 0.75% from 0.5% (highest in decades) at the end of its meeting. [9]
The Guardian’s live coverage added detail that the BoE cut from 4.0% to 3.75% in a tight vote, underscoring how sensitive markets remain to inflation and growth tradeoffs heading into 2026. [10]
For Bitcoin traders, this matters because rate differentials, dollar direction, and liquidity expectations can all bleed into BTC’s short-term trend.
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows: a $457M “vote of confidence” (even as price churns)
If today’s macro narrative is the spark, ETF flows are the fuel institutions keep pouring into the market.
A CoinDesk report (syndicated via MEXC) said U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $457.3 million in net inflows on Wednesday (Dec. 17), described as the strongest daily intake since Nov. 11. The same report highlighted:
- Fidelity’s FBTC leading with roughly $391.5 million
- BlackRock’s IBIT adding roughly $111.2 million
- Bitcoin dominance rising to ~60%, the highest in about a month [11]
Decrypt also reported $457 million of inflows, framing it as a “flight to quality” into Bitcoin and noting it as one of the larger single-day inflow prints since early October (citing SoSoValue). [12]
Crypto Briefing similarly referenced $457 million in net inflows (citing Farside Investors), with FBTC and IBIT leading. [13]
What the ETF story is really saying
Despite BTC’s choppy tape, ETF flows suggest:
- Institutions are still allocating to Bitcoin specifically, not necessarily to the broader altcoin market.
- The market may be rotating toward “cleaner beta” (BTC exposure through regulated vehicles) rather than speculative breadth.
That’s consistent with the “dominance up” theme and helps explain why Bitcoin can stay supported even after failed rallies.
Why $90,000 keeps rejecting: conviction, positioning, and unusually low implied volatility
One of the more revealing signals today is that volatility expectations look muted even though price action is jumpy.
CoinDesk (via MEXC) pointed to Bitcoin implied volatility sitting just below 50 on the Volmex Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index (BVIV), describing it as historically low—suggesting options markets aren’t fully pricing sustained fireworks even after big intraday swings. [14]
FXStreet’s IG commentary put a clean line in the sand:
- $85,000 is being watched as an apparent floor
- A clean push above $90,000 would improve sentiment into the holiday period [15]
In plain terms: traders keep trying to lift BTC, but without follow-through, rallies become opportunities for profit-taking—especially in thinner year-end liquidity.
Corporate and equity spillover: Strategy’s BTC buying, and why crypto stocks still move
Bitcoin’s price isn’t the only way to play Bitcoin—and today’s news cycle highlighted that again.
Strategy’s buying pace meets funding reality
Investors.com reported that Strategy (the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, often associated with ticker MSTR) deployed $1.94 billion over roughly two weeks to buy more than 20,000 BTC, but warned the company’s ability to keep funding purchases via stock issuance may weaken as its share price falls. [16]
That matters because Strategy has become a systemic “BTC demand proxy” in 2025. If its buying pace slows, traders often reassess one pillar of incremental demand.
Coinbase, Robinhood, and “crypto equities” decouple—sometimes
Barron’s highlighted an additional wrinkle: crypto-linked stocks (like Coinbase and Robinhood) can rise even when BTC chops, especially when company-specific catalysts hit. It pointed to Coinbase’s stated ambition to become an “everything exchange” and noted a partnership with Kalshi alongside plans to roll out stock trading. [17]
The key theme for investors: Bitcoin spot price and Bitcoin-adjacent equities don’t always move in lockstep—because their own earnings narratives, regulatory news, and product plans can dominate the session.
On-chain and “cycle” debate: realized cap hits a record even after a big correction
Beyond CPI and ETFs, there’s a deeper argument growing louder today: Bitcoin may not be obeying old cycle scripts the way it used to.
A CoinDesk analysis (syndicated via Moomoo) said Bitcoin’s realized capitalization—an on-chain metric that values each coin at the price it last moved—sat around a record $1.125 trillion. The report argued this can signal continuing capital inflows even during a sizable price drawdown. [18]
The same piece quoted Andre Dragosch (Bitwise) suggesting Bitcoin could defy the classic four-year cycle narrative, pointing to macro conditions like rate cuts and liquidity dynamics as potential support into 2026. [19]
This is important because it offers a framework for why BTC can look “weak” on price while still appearing “strong” on certain capital flow measures.
Bitcoin forecast and analyst outlooks (Dec. 18, 2025): bull targets vs. cycle cautions
Forecasts are never guarantees—especially in crypto—but Dec. 18 coverage includes several notable forward-looking takes.
Bull case: $150,000 targets for 2026
The Motley Fool reported that analysts at Standard Chartered (Geoff Kendrick) and Bernstein (Gautam Chhugani) expect Bitcoin to reach $150,000 in 2026—described as downward revisions from earlier targets, yet still substantial upside from current levels. [20]
Caution case: historical patterns imply turbulence could continue
The same Motley Fool analysis also laid out why 2026 could be bumpier than the headline targets imply, pointing to post-halving historical patterns and noting Bitcoin peaked around October 2025 after the April 2024 halving—a timeline that aligns with prior cycle behavior. [21]
Practical near-term forecast: watch the $85K–$90K battlefield
Near-term market commentary today converged on a simple range thesis:
- $85K is the key “hold the line” zone
- $90K is the “prove it” level for bulls [22]
If ETF inflows remain firm while macro data continues to cool, the range can resolve upward. If inflows weaken and rates reprice higher again, BTC risks revisiting lower support zones.
What to watch next (the next 24–72 hours)
If you’re tracking Bitcoin price today and into the weekend, the market’s next catalysts are lined up across macro, flows, and sentiment:
- Follow-through after CPI: Markets will test whether today’s softer inflation print changes the path of expected rate cuts—or gets dismissed due to data-quality concerns. [23]
- Central bank ripple effects: BOJ expectations and global rate moves can swing the dollar and global liquidity narratives. [24]
- Daily spot ETF flow prints: After a ~$457M inflow day, traders will watch whether institutions keep buying or fade into year-end. [25]
- Break (or failure) at $90K: A clean reclaim can shift headlines fast; another rejection keeps BTC stuck in chop and “sell the rip” behavior. [26]
Bottom line
Bitcoin on 18.12.2025 is being pulled in two directions:
- Supportive forces: cooler U.S. inflation, large spot ETF inflows, and on-chain metrics that suggest capital remains committed
- Limiting forces: failed breakouts near $90K, year-end caution, and persistent uncertainty around the path of global rates
References
1. www.mexc.co, 2. www.mexc.co, 3. www.barrons.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.fxstreet.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.theguardian.com, 11. www.mexc.co, 12. decrypt.co, 13. cryptobriefing.com, 14. www.mexc.co, 15. www.fxstreet.com, 16. www.investors.com, 17. www.barrons.com, 18. www.moomoo.com, 19. www.moomoo.com, 20. www.fool.com, 21. www.fool.com, 22. www.fxstreet.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.mexc.co, 26. www.fxstreet.com
