Bitcoin is ending Christmas Eve in a familiar place: stuck in a tight range, with traders watching ETF flows and derivatives positioning for the next catalyst.
As of 5:02 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 24, 2025 (22:02 UTC), Bitcoin (BTC) traded at about $87,636, little changed on the session, after printing an intraday range roughly between $86,540 and $87,742 across major feeds.
That “quiet” tape is the story of the day: thin holiday liquidity, recent U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, and a record-sized year-end options expiry that market participants say could “unpin” price—either direction—once positioning resets.
Bitcoin price today: the latest BTC snapshot (Dec. 24, 2025, 5:02 p.m. ET)
Here are the key price levels traders are focused on going into the holiday weekend:
- BTC price: ~$87,636 at 5:02 p.m. ET
- Intraday range (spot feeds): ~$86,540 to ~$87,742
- Day range (UTC-marked market data feed): low ~$86,350, high ~$87,775 (venue-dependent) [1]
Small differences between price trackers are normal because Bitcoin trades 24/7 and each data provider aggregates different venues (and timestamps). [2]
Why Bitcoin is stuck near $87K on Christmas Eve
Today’s BTC action looks less like a trend day and more like a market waiting for the calendar to flip.
1) Holiday liquidity is thinning—and that cuts both ways
Multiple market commentaries this week have highlighted that liquidity is thinning as December winds down. QCP Group noted that traders have been closing risk into the holidays, with BTC perpetual open interest falling by roughly $3 billion overnight (and ETH perp OI down about $2 billion), a sign that risk is being reduced rather than redeployed. [3]
Thin liquidity often means smaller trades can move price more than usual—but it can also result in long stretches of “chop” when neither buyers nor sellers want to press.
2) ETF flows remain a major swing factor—and lately they’ve been a headwind
A key theme of late 2025 has been the market’s sensitivity to spot Bitcoin ETF flow data.
- Farside Investors’ daily table showed net outflows on Dec. 23 totaling about $188.6 million, with the largest single-fund move being IBIT at -$157.3 million (and additional outflows across other products). [4]
- Reuters’ year-end lookback underscored the “double-edged” nature of ETFs: the same structure that helped power the 2025 rally also makes it easy to exit quickly when sentiment turns. Reuters also pointed to a stretch of heavy IBIT withdrawals earlier in the quarter, illustrating how fast flows can reverse. [5]
For Dec. 24 itself, some flow dashboards were still showing placeholders as of publication time, so traders have been leaning on the most recently confirmed daily figures (Dec. 23) while watching for the next update. [6]
3) A record year-end options expiry is “pinning” BTC in a narrow band
If ETFs are the “macro lever,” options are the “micro lever” that can trap price—especially during low-liquidity stretches.
QCP Group’s market update emphasized that year-end options expiries often coincide with 5%–7% swings during the Christmas period, driven more by positioning and hedging flows than by new fundamental headlines. [7]
The numbers are unusually large this time:
- About 300,000 BTC options contracts—estimated around $23.7 billion notional—are set to expire around the year-end window. [8]
- QCP also flagged 446,000 IBIT option contracts expiring in the same period, tying ETF-related derivatives even more tightly to spot BTC price action. [9]
- QCP described the largest strike concentrations around $100,000 and $85,000, with “max pain” clustered near $95,000, levels that can influence dealer hedging behavior into expiry. [10]
In other words: with so much risk coming off the board, BTC can feel “stuck” until those contracts clear—and then price can move quickly as dealers and traders rebalance.
Key levels traders are watching: $85K support vs. $90K resistance
Across multiple daily market notes, the same band keeps showing up:
- Support zone: roughly $85,000–$86,000 (where dip-buying interest and options positioning have repeatedly defended price) [11]
- Resistance zone: roughly $89,000–$90,000 (where rallies have struggled to hold) [12]
Investing.com summarized the day’s tone plainly: Bitcoin drifted toward $87,000 after another failed attempt to reclaim above $90,000, with thin year-end conditions and ETF outflows weighing on sentiment. [13]
DailyForex’s Dec. 24 technical note similarly characterized BTC as consolidating in the broader $85K–$90K range, warning that holiday liquidity can make trading “choppy and unpredictable.” [14]
The bigger 2025 context: from $126K peak to the mid-$80Ks
Today’s sideways action comes after an unusually dramatic year.
Reuters highlighted that Bitcoin hit a new all-time high near $126,000 in October 2025, then slid back toward the mid-$80,000s into late November and early December before stabilizing for a time in the low-$90Ks. [15]
The same Reuters analysis framed the pullback as part of Bitcoin’s historical tendency toward large corrections—even within broader bull cycles—while emphasizing how 2025’s structure (ETFs, yields, and regulation) changed the way volatility expressed itself. [16]
Forecasts and outlook: what analysts expect next for BTC into 2026
While today’s Bitcoin price is defined by holiday liquidity and positioning, investor attention is already shifting to 2026 narratives—especially around regulation, institutional adoption, and how much of the “four-year cycle” still matters.
Citi’s 12‑month forecast: $143,000 base case (with wide scenarios)
A widely circulated Wall Street forecast from Citigroup puts a base case around $143,000 over the next 12 months, with an upside scenario above $189,000 and a downside case near $78,500. [17]
Whatever one thinks of the targets, the key point for markets is the mechanism: Citi’s view ties upside to continued ETF-driven access and improving regulatory clarity. [18]
Grayscale: new all-time highs “likely” in the first half of 2026
Grayscale’s 2026 Digital Asset Outlook argues that 2026 could mark the “dawn of the institutional era,” driven by two pillars: macro demand for alternative stores of value and improved regulatory clarity. [19]
Notably, Grayscale says Bitcoin’s price will likely reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026 and expects the market to move beyond the traditional “four-year cycle” framing. [20]
The report also points to structural milestones—like the 20 millionth Bitcoin expected to be mined in March 2026—as part of the scarcity narrative. [21]
Reuters: 2026 may be more about consolidation and structure than “mania”
Reuters’ Dec. 24 analysis suggested 2026 could lean toward consolidation and structural progress rather than nonstop explosive price action, emphasizing that ETF flows remain a double-edged sword and that evolving legal/regulatory dynamics may shape the next phase of market behavior. [22]
Beyond price: regulation, litigation, and industry deal-making are shaping sentiment
Even on a quiet price day, crypto’s headline backdrop matters—especially for institutional flows.
- Reuters noted that as enforcement priorities shift, private litigation is becoming a more central risk channel for crypto firms—another factor that can influence institutional confidence over time. [23]
- The Financial Times reported that crypto mergers and acquisitions surged in 2025, citing $8.6 billion across 267 deals, with major transactions involving Coinbase, Kraken, and Ripple—signaling continued traditional-finance integration even as token prices cooled from their peaks. [24]
What to watch next after today’s 5:02 p.m. ET Bitcoin price update
If you’re tracking Bitcoin price today and wondering what could actually break the range, these are the near-term catalysts traders keep returning to:
- ETF flow prints (next reporting day): whether outflows persist or stabilize, especially in the largest products. [25]
- The year-end options “reset”: whether the market moves once the heavy open interest rolls off—particularly around the big $85K and $100K strike zones flagged by QCP. [26]
- Tax-driven flows into Dec. 31: QCP specifically warned that tax-loss harvesting can amplify volatility in thin markets, and that holiday moves often mean-revert when liquidity returns in January. [27]
- Macro rates and risk appetite: Reuters emphasized that higher yields can reintroduce a headwind for non-yielding, momentum-sensitive assets like BTC. [28]
- Regulatory headlines into 2026: Grayscale expects broader market structure legislation and expanded ETP availability to be major drivers next year—if the policy path stays on track. [29]
Note: Cryptocurrency prices move quickly and can vary by exchange and data provider. This article is informational and not financial advice. [30]
References
1. twelvedata.com, 2. twelvedata.com, 3. www.qcpgroup.com, 4. farside.co.uk, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. farside.co.uk, 7. www.qcpgroup.com, 8. www.qcpgroup.com, 9. www.qcpgroup.com, 10. www.qcpgroup.com, 11. www.qcpgroup.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.dailyforex.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.marketwatch.com, 18. www.marketwatch.com, 19. research.grayscale.com, 20. research.grayscale.com, 21. research.grayscale.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.ft.com, 25. farside.co.uk, 26. www.qcpgroup.com, 27. www.qcpgroup.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. research.grayscale.com, 30. twelvedata.com
