Bitcoin price today is trading in a familiar end‑of‑year tug‑of‑war: renewed institutional demand is flashing on the ETF tape, while macro uncertainty and persistent selling from longer‑term holders are keeping rallies short-lived.
At around 9:59 a.m. ET on Thursday, December 18, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) was changing hands in the high-$80,000s. By 3:05 p.m. UTC (10:05 a.m. ET), BTC was quoted near $88,367, down about 1.36% from the prior close, after a volatile session that has so far spanned roughly $85,355 to $90,187.
Bitcoin price today: what the market is watching right now
Bitcoin’s intraday action on 18.12.2025 has been shaped by three overlapping narratives:
- Macro catalysts (inflation + central banks) are pulling risk assets in different directions.
- Spot Bitcoin ETF flows are showing a fresh pulse of demand—especially in the biggest funds.
- Positioning and “overhead supply” near key technical levels continues to pressure rebounds.
That mix is a big reason BTC has struggled to hold above the $90,000 area even on days when the broader market mood improves. [1]
Macro backdrop on 18.12.2025: inflation surprise, rate cuts, and liquidity anxiety
A key cross‑market theme Thursday is how fast (or slow) policymakers can ease without reigniting inflation—and what that means for liquidity conditions that tend to matter disproportionately for crypto.
Reuters reported U.S. inflation rose 2.7% year‑on‑year in November, below the 3.1% forecast cited in its coverage, pressuring the dollar and helping risk sentiment stabilize. [2]
In Europe, the European Central Bank held rates steady, and in the UK the Bank of England cut rates to 3.75% in a close 5–4 vote, according to live coverage and meeting details reported by The Guardian. [3]
At the same time, traders are increasingly sensitive to the idea that a single “hawkish surprise”—particularly from Japan—could drain global liquidity fast. A market analysis published Thursday noted Bitcoin is staying muted ahead of inflation data and the Bank of Japan decision, emphasizing how shifts in global liquidity can hit BTC sharply. [4]
Why this matters for Bitcoin price today:
Bitcoin has often behaved like a “liquidity barometer”—pushing higher when conditions loosen and struggling when funding tightens. That makes every inflation print and central‑bank decision feel amplified for BTC, especially late in the year when liquidity can thin out.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs: inflows pick up again—and they’re concentrated
One of the most closely watched bullish signals on 18.12.2025 is that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs just logged their strongest intake in weeks.
A report carried by TradingView (from Cointelegraph) said spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $457 million in net inflows on Wednesday, led by Fidelity’s FBTC (~$391 million) and BlackRock’s IBIT (~$111 million), with some smaller funds posting outflows. [5]
That same report highlighted the bigger picture: cumulative net inflows have climbed above $57 billion, and total net assets above $112 billion, a meaningful share of Bitcoin’s market capitalization. [6]
Farside Investors’ daily ETF flow table also showed total net inflows of 457.3 (US$ millions) for 17 Dec 2025, with entries consistent with the “IBIT + FBTC lead” narrative. [7]
What this means for BTC price today:
ETF inflows can support Bitcoin even when perpetual futures positioning is cautious, because they represent “cleaner” demand—often from allocators who aren’t trading minute‑to‑minute. But the market is still debating whether this week’s inflows are the start of a new trend or simply tactical positioning into year‑end.
Selling pressure is still real: “silent exodus” and overhead supply
Even with ETFs attracting money, Bitcoin is facing a second, less visible force: supply that re-enters the market when prices bounce.
Bloomberg reported that long‑time holders have continued to sell, adding pressure more than two months after Bitcoin’s record high above $126,000; the story described Bitcoin as down nearly 30% from that peak and “struggling to find support” as older coins are divested. [8]
Meanwhile, on‑chain and structure-focused analysis published Thursday argued Bitcoin is confronting a “hidden supply wall” around $93,000, with dense overhead supply extending into a broader band above that level. The report also framed recent whipsaw moves as a collision of thin liquidity and concentrated options positioning rather than pure “reckless leverage.” [9]
The takeaway:
When Bitcoin rallies into heavy “overhead supply,” sellers who bought higher may use bounces to reduce exposure—especially into year‑end. That can keep BTC capped even when headlines look bullish.
Why Bitcoin is struggling below $90,000 despite positive headlines
A big question on 18.12.2025 is: if macro is improving and ETFs are seeing inflows, why can’t Bitcoin hold $90K?
Several factors are likely at work:
- Range-bound positioning: Market analysis published Thursday described BTC as stuck below $90,000 and trading within a broader downtrend channel dating back to October, with key support levels being closely watched. [10]
- Structural resistance: Some analysts point to a thick supply cluster above current prices—meaning rallies run into sellers sooner than bulls want. [11]
- Year-end conditions: “Thin liquidity” into the holidays can exaggerate both up and down moves, which often discourages traders from chasing breakouts. [12]
Barron’s also noted ongoing choppiness as the market moves through the holiday period, even while some crypto-exposed equities bounce. [13]
Crypto stocks are moving too: Coinbase, Strategy, and the “everything exchange” push
Even when Bitcoin stalls, the ecosystem around it can move sharply—especially publicly listed companies tied to trading volumes, custody, and crypto “beta.”
Barron’s reported that while Bitcoin and major tokens struggled, crypto-linked stocks such as Coinbase, Robinhood, and Strategy were showing gains, pointing in part to Coinbase’s push to become an “everything exchange,” including a partnership with Kalshi and plans related to stock trading. [14]
Coinbase also made fresh policy news on 18.12.2025: Reuters reported the company appointed former UK finance minister George Osborne to run its internal advisory council, a move framed as part of Coinbase’s broader efforts to shape crypto policy beyond the U.S. [15]
Why this matters for Bitcoin price today:
When exchanges and “crypto proxy” equities rally or fall, they can reinforce sentiment around BTC—sometimes even when the coin itself is relatively stable.
Regulation on 18.12.2025: big wins in 2025, but uncertainty for 2026
Regulation remains one of the most powerful long-term drivers of crypto adoption—and it’s firmly in the day’s narrative.
Reuters reported the U.S. crypto industry notched major wins in 2025, including regulatory and legislative shifts that helped propel Bitcoin to new peaks, but warned that the “party may not continue” into 2026 if market structure legislation stalls and policy clarity remains incomplete. The report also referenced expectations for an SEC “innovation exemption” and ongoing debate over how tokens should be classified. [16]
What to watch:
Policy tailwinds can support institutional adoption over time, but delays in market structure rules can keep uncertainty elevated—especially for altcoins and DeFi. Bitcoin often benefits from this kind of environment because it remains the market’s “default” institutional crypto exposure.
Forecasts and price predictions: bullish targets return, but the range of outcomes is wide
Bitcoin forecasts published on 18.12.2025 show a striking split: some Wall Street-linked views remain bullish for 2026 and beyond, while cycle-based frameworks argue Bitcoin could face more turbulence first.
A Nasdaq-hosted piece (Motley Fool) said analysts at Standard Chartered and Bernstein expect Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2026, framing that as meaningful upside from current levels. The article also referenced longer-run targets—including estimates of $500,000 by 2030 (Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick) and $1 million by 2033 (Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani)—while emphasizing these are forecasts, not certainties. [17]
At the same time, that same analysis highlighted a historical pattern around Bitcoin’s halving cycles—often peaking 12–18 months after a halving event, then declining before gradually recovering—suggesting 2026 could still be choppy even if long-term adoption improves. [18]
How to interpret forecasts responsibly:
Bitcoin price predictions tend to cluster around narratives (ETFs, macro easing, regulation) and models (cycle history, on-chain cost bases). On days like today—when bullish and bearish signals coexist—risk management matters more than any single target.
Technical levels traders are watching today: $85K, $90K, and the “supply wall” zone
Several widely cited technical markers are in focus on 18.12.2025:
- $90,000: A key psychological threshold and a level BTC has repeatedly struggled to reclaim decisively. [19]
- ~$85,000: Identified as an important support zone in Thursday’s market analysis; a break below it could open the door to deeper downside levels. [20]
- ~$93,000: An “overhead supply” region described as a ceiling that rallies have had trouble breaking, according to on-chain-oriented analysis. [21]
- ~$81,000: Mentioned as a structural support region in Glassnode-referenced commentary; some analysts see it as a zone where the market may try to base if volatility returns. [22]
For context, today’s observed intraday band ($85,355 to $90,187) sits right on top of these key levels—helping explain the “snap back” behavior traders are seeing.
The institutional backdrop: big names still circling Bitcoin
Despite the recent drawdown from October highs, mainstream institutions continue to inch into Bitcoin exposure—often via ETFs rather than direct custody.
A Reuters feature on shifting crypto strategies noted growing institutional participation, citing examples such as large investors holding positions in major Bitcoin ETF products and sovereign funds building stakes. [23]
This matters because, over time, a broader institutional base can change Bitcoin’s market structure—potentially reducing the impact of retail-driven leverage cycles. But in the short run, price can still be dominated by liquidity, derivatives positioning, and concentrated selling.
What happens next: the immediate catalysts after 9:59 AM ET
As the day progresses, traders and investors will likely keep focus on:
- Inflation follow-through and rate expectations: Softer inflation can support risk appetite, but markets will watch whether central banks signal caution or easing. [24]
- Japan and global liquidity: Any hint of tighter policy can reverberate through the “carry” trade ecosystem and impact crypto sentiment. [25]
- ETF flow updates: After Wednesday’s strong inflows, traders will watch whether today’s numbers confirm momentum or show fading demand. [26]
- Holiday liquidity: Thin order books can magnify moves—up or down—especially around widely watched levels like $90K. [27]
Bottom line for Bitcoin price today (18.12.2025)
Bitcoin price today at around 9:59 a.m. ET is telling a nuanced story: institutional demand is still present, and macro news has offered moments of support—but selling pressure and structural resistance remain powerful enough to cap rallies near the $90K area.
For now, BTC appears to be in a high-volatility consolidation: building a base in the mid‑to‑high $80Ks while the market waits for clearer signals from central banks, ETF flows, and year‑end positioning.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.theguardian.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.tradingview.com, 6. www.tradingview.com, 7. farside.co.uk, 8. www.bloomberg.com, 9. cryptoslate.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. cryptoslate.com, 12. cryptoslate.com, 13. www.barrons.com, 14. www.barrons.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. cryptoslate.com, 22. www.tradingview.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.tradingview.com, 27. cryptoslate.com
