Bitcoin price today is back on the offensive.
After dipping below $85,000 at the start of the week, BTC has ripped higher to trade around $93,000, up roughly 6–7% in 24 hours, with intraday swings between about $87,000 and $93,900 as of December 3, 2025. [1]
The move caps a dramatic two‑day reversal fueled by Vanguard’s decision to open its platform to crypto ETFs, fresh regulatory optimism from the U.S. SEC, and rising bets on near‑term Fed rate cuts. [2]
Below is a deep, news‑style breakdown of what’s driving Bitcoin today, how analysts see the rest of December playing out, and where major forecasts think BTC could be heading into 2026 and beyond.
Key Takeaways on Bitcoin Price – December 3, 2025
- BTC trades near $93K, up ~6–7% on the day, after briefly dropping below $85K on Monday. [3]
- The rebound follows a brutal ~33% slide from October’s all‑time high above $126,000 to last week’s lows near $84K–$85K. [4]
- Vanguard’s reversal on crypto ETFs and talk of an SEC “innovation exemption” for digital assets have significantly brightened the regulatory outlook. [5]
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs have flipped back to net inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading a multi‑day streak of positive flows. [6]
- Analysts are split between a cautious December “repair phase” and a bullish recovery toward $100K+, while several long‑term forecasts still point to six‑figure BTC and even $1M within five years. [7]
Bitcoin Price Today: Snapshot and Market Context
Where BTC Stands Now
- Spot price: around $93,000
- 24h change: roughly +6–7%
- Daily range: approximately $87,000 (low) – $93,900 (high)
- Market cap: around $1.8–1.9 trillion
- Distance from ATH: still about 25–30% below October’s record near $126,173. [8]
Crypto‑wide, today’s rebound is broad‑based: Bitcoin leads large‑caps higher while NFT, DeFi, and major altcoin sectors post 3–12% gains over 24 hours, according to live market trackers. [9]
Yet this bounce comes after one of Bitcoin’s weakest months in recent years. Cryptonews estimates BTC fell more than 17% in November, as ETF outflows, a “death cross” between the 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages, and extreme fear (Fear & Greed Index near 17–20) spooked traders. [10]
Why Bitcoin Is Surging on December 3, 2025
1. The “Vanguard Effect”: 50M New Doors to Bitcoin Exposure
The single biggest headline driving today’s rally is Vanguard’s U‑turn on crypto.
- Vanguard, the world’s second‑largest asset manager, has confirmed it will now allow trading of cryptocurrency‑linked ETFs and mutual funds on its brokerage platform. [11]
- Analysts estimate this opens regulated Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF access to over 50 million clients, a dramatic shift from Vanguard’s long‑standing crypto skepticism. [12]
The change was quickly reflected in flows and volume:
- Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted that BlackRock’s IBIT saw about $1 billion in trading volume on its first day at Vanguard, with BTC jumping roughly 6% around the U.S. open as the policy went live. [13]
- 99Bitcoins notes that IBIT’s early trading at Vanguard helped push aggregate spot Bitcoin ETF volume above $1.8 billion within hours, coinciding with BTC reclaiming the $92K–$93K area. [14]
This “Vanguard effect” matters for two reasons:
- Distribution: Millions of conservative, long‑term investors now get easy, regulated access to Bitcoin exposure via ETFs.
- Signal: A famously cautious asset manager embracing crypto products is a powerful vote of confidence in Bitcoin’s place inside mainstream finance.
2. SEC “Innovation Exemption” and Friendlier Regulatory Tone
At roughly the same time, a key piece of regulatory news landed from Washington:
- Investing.com reports that U.S. SEC Chair Paul Atkins signaled the agency is working on a new “innovation exemption” framework to better accommodate digital‑asset firms, including rules around issuance, custody, and trading. [15]
Markets read this as less existential regulatory risk and more of a “managed integration” of crypto into existing securities laws. That’s especially important after years where single enforcement actions could evaporate billions in market cap overnight.
3. Fed Cut Hopes and an Emerging Liquidity Tailwind
Macro is pulling in Bitcoin’s favor today as well.
- Bitcoin’s rebound above $93K is partly tied to rising market odds of a near‑term Federal Reserve rate cut, with Treasury yields edging lower and the dollar slipping. [16]
- Derivatives platform Mitrade notes that the Fed has quietly injected roughly $13.5 billion in liquidity and is preparing to halt quantitative tightening (QT), a shift some analysts describe as a “mini‑QE pivot” into year‑end. [17]
Crypto commentators increasingly frame Bitcoin as “a high‑beta macro asset” that tracks global liquidity:
- A widely cited CCN analysis, built around a ChatGPT scenario model, argues that Bitcoin’s December 31 price will depend heavily on whether central banks stay tight, pause, or hint at easing — with the “hold steady” base case putting BTC in an $82K–$97K year‑end range. [18]
Today’s combination of Fed‑cut chatter and Vanguard‑driven ETF demand ticks many of the boxes that bullish macro scenarios rely on.
4. Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows Turn Positive Again
After several brutal weeks of outflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs are finally seeing money come back in:
- Data compiled by CryptoRank and others shows that on December 2, BlackRock’s IBIT recorded about $120 million in net inflows, Fidelity’s FBTC added roughly $22 million, and Bitwise’s BITB took in around $7.4 million, totaling about $58.5 million of net inflows across U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. This marked the fifth straight day of positive flows. [19]
- A recent CoinShares weekly report estimated digital‑asset investment products pulled in more than $1 billion in net inflows, their strongest week since March, with Bitcoin funds capturing the lion’s share. [20]
This is a sharp reversal from November, when U.S. spot ETFs posted around $3.5 billion in net outflows and drove much of the slide from ~$115K to sub‑$85K levels. [21]
Today’s rally is, in part, the market front‑running the possibility that ETF inflows have turned a corner as new distribution (Vanguard) collides with a friendlier macro backdrop.
5. Short Squeeze After a “Leverage Flush”
From a market‑structure angle, the setup for a squeeze was already there:
- CoinCentral notes that Bitcoin’s drop to around $80,600–$84,500 over the weekend amounted to a “leverage flush”, wiping out over $8,000 of value in hours as long positions were liquidated. [22]
- On‑chain and derivatives data from Glassnode and others shows elevated short interest clustering just above the $92K–$93K region; once BTC punched through that band, liquidations amplified the move higher. [23]
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe called a break above $92K “crucial,” arguing that clearing this level would open a path back to all‑time highs and a test of the $100K region. [24]
Technical Picture: Key Bitcoin Levels to Watch Now
Different analysts are reading the same chart through slightly different lenses, but a few zones keep coming up.
1. Immediate Support and Resistance
Short‑term support zones:
- $80,400: The line in the sand for many December outlooks; BeInCrypto flags this as the key support that must hold to avoid a deeper breakdown toward ~$66,800. [25]
- $86,000–$88,000: CoinCentral highlights this band as a “battle‑tested” support zone that has withstood dozens of retests in recent months. [26]
Resistance and breakout zones:
- $92,700–$94,000: The top of an ascending triangle structure on the daily chart, with prices repeatedly pressing against this ceiling while forming higher lows. A confirmed breakout from this pattern would target around $102,800, just above the psychological $100K mark. [27]
- $93,900–$97,100: BeInCrypto treats this wider range as the “breakout corridor” for December; a daily close above $97,100 would invalidate a previous bear‑flag breakdown and open room toward ~$101,600. [28]
2. Trend Structure and Risk of a “Dead‑Cat Bounce”
Trend‑wise, Bitcoin is in an awkward middle ground:
- Cryptonews notes that November saw a 50‑day vs 200‑day moving‑average “death cross”, a classic medium‑term bear signal, even as today’s rally lifts BTC back above some short‑term averages. [29]
- DailyForex’s intraday analysis frames today’s move as a strong bullish impulse, but still within a wider corrective structure. Their sample trade idea favors upside toward the mid‑$90Ks with tight stops below recent lows — a tactical long, not a “new cycle” call. [30]
BeInCrypto goes further, warning that BTC recently slipped below the lower band of a larger bear flag, implying that, unless price regains that structure with heavy volume, a retarget of the mid‑$60Ks remains on the table. [31]
Bottom line: $93K+ looks like the top of a decision zone, not a clear‑sky breakout — at least not yet.
On‑Chain and Institutional Signals: Mixed but Improving
1. Whales and Long‑Term Holders Still Cautious
Some on‑chain metrics argue that the market hasn’t fully reset after November’s slide:
- BeInCrypto notes that the Exchange Whale Ratio — the share of inflows coming from the largest wallets — climbed from 0.32 to 0.68 in late November and still sits in a zone historically associated with whales preparing to sell, not accumulate. [32]
- The Hodler Net Position Change remains deeply negative, indicating that long‑term holders have been distributing coins for more than six months — the opposite of what typically marks durable cycle bottoms. [33]
In other words, while today’s bounce is real, some of the smartest money on‑chain is still fading strength, not piling into it.
2. “Sharks” Accumulate as Institutions Return
Not all big players are selling.
CoinCentral’s analysis, citing Glassnode data, finds that entities holding 100–1,000 BTC have increased their balance to about 3.65 million coins, up from roughly 3.45 million a week earlier. These so‑called “sharks” appear to be buying into weakness around $80K–$90K. [34]
On the institutional side:
- The CoinShares inflow spike (>$1B last week) shows that regulated products are once again adding Bitcoin, likely reflecting renewed interest from wealth managers and hedge funds anticipating a Fed pivot. [35]
- Fasanara Digital’s research, highlighted by TradingView’s news feed, argues that this cycle has pulled in roughly $732 billion of fresh capital into Bitcoin, even as realized volatility has nearly halved vs previous bull markets, suggesting a larger but more “institutional” market structure. [36]
The combined picture: older holders and tactical whales are still distributing, but “shark‑sized” investors and ETF buyers are quietly absorbing supply — a classic transfer of coins from early‑cycle players to new institutional hands.
News‑Driven Bitcoin Price Forecasts for December 2025
1. December Outlook: “Repair Month” or Launchpad?
BeInCrypto’s comprehensive December 2025 outlook paints a cautious base case:
- November’s –17% monthly performance and roughly –$3.48B in net ETF outflows leave sentiment bruised. [37]
- Historically, December returns are modest: an average of 8.42% but a median of just 1.69%, with three of the last four Decembers finishing negative. [38]
- Their analysts see $80,400 as the key defensive floor and $97,100 as the upside trigger that would confirm a real trend reversal; until then, they describe the current phase as a “repair” period with risk skewed slightly to the downside. [39]
In this framework, today’s bounce is necessary but not sufficient to call a full‑fledged bull resumption.
2. CoinCentral: Ascending Triangle Points to $100K–$103K
CoinCentral’s December 3 technical breakdown is more upbeat:
- They identify a clear ascending triangle with rising lows from around $80,600 pressing into resistance near $92,700–$94,000. [40]
- If BTC can close decisively above this resistance band, the pattern’s measured move targets roughly $102,800, lining up with the psychological $100K level. [41]
However, they also warn that a failed breakout could send Bitcoin back toward $88K–$90K, or even re‑test the $80K–$85K region if the lower trendline breaks. [42]
3. Cryptonews: 2025–2030 Forecasts
Cryptonews’ just‑updated Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025–2030 offers a structured macro roadmap: [43]
- 2025 target:$115,000
- 2026 target:$100,127 (a consolidation year as the market digests earlier gains)
- 2030 target:$158,086, based on expectations for broader crypto adoption, another halving cycle, and crypto’s share of global financial markets.
Their thesis leans on:
- A pro‑crypto U.S. administration, including a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” and friendlier regulation.
- Continuing institutional adoption (ETFs, pensions, corporates).
- The long‑term impact of the 2024 and 2028 halvings on Bitcoin’s supply curve.
Short‑term, they acknowledge that November’s death cross, heavy ETF outflows, and extreme fear leave BTC vulnerable to more volatility before those long‑term targets come back into focus. [44]
4. CCN + ChatGPT: Scenario‑Based Year‑End Ranges
In a widely shared piece, CCN asked ChatGPT to project Bitcoin’s December 31, 2025 price. Instead of a single number, the article lays out four macro scenarios: [45]
- Central banks ease (25% probability):
- BTC rallies aggressively into a liquidity‑driven melt‑up.
- Range:$105,000–$128,000.
- Central banks hold steady (50%, base case):
- Rates stay high but stable; ETFs see mixed flows; BTC grinds higher but avoids extremes.
- Range:$82,000–$97,000.
- Central banks tighten (20%):
- Higher yields, renewed risk‑off, ETF outflows.
- Range:$68,000–$82,000.
- Major shock (5%):
- Geopolitical crisis, hard regulatory crackdown, systemic financial stress, or a large exchange failure.
- Range:$55,000–$68,000.
The probability‑weighted forecast lands in an $88,000–$98,000 band for December 31, with outlier outcomes on either side if macro shocks hit. [46]
5. Brave New Coin and Others: The $1M Long‑Term Vision
Looking beyond 2025, some analysts are still incredibly bullish:
- A Brave New Coin feature on December 3 underscores that “some long‑term bulls believe Bitcoin could reach $1 million within five years.” It notes that figures like Cathie Wood (ARK Invest), Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, and Michael Saylor have all reiterated the possibility of seven‑figure BTC if institutional adoption and supply dynamics continue their current path. [47]
At the same time, more measured forecasts exist:
- A recent Strategy‑focused analysis suggests a year‑end 2025 range of roughly $85,000–$110,000, emphasizing that even that corridor would represent a strong outcome given 2025’s volatility. [48]
Together, these forecasts define the psychological landscape:
- Short‑term: $80K–$100K is the main battlefield.
- Medium‑term (2025–26): six‑figure Bitcoin is seen as plausible but not guaranteed.
- Long‑term (5+ years): $1M BTC sits at the far bullish edge of consensus, contingent on continued structural adoption and benign regulation.
What Could Go Wrong? Key Risks After Today’s Rally
Despite the green candles, several downside risks still hang over Bitcoin’s price:
- Central banks could stay hawkish longer than markets expect.
Cryptonews’ coverage of the Fed and Bank of Japan notes that BoJ officials are preparing markets for a potential end to negative rates, while Fed officials like Boston’s Susan Collins have signaled a “high bar” for further easing. Higher global yields and a stronger dollar remain a direct headwind for BTC. [49] - ETF flows may fail to sustain.
BeInCrypto’s December outlook stresses that multiple days of $200–$300M in daily net ETF inflows are likely needed to confirm a robust trend shift. If inflows stall or reverse, the current bounce risks reverting into a lower‑high rally inside a broader downtrend. [50] - Whales and long‑term holders are still selling.
Elevated Exchange Whale Ratios and negative Hodler Net Position metrics show that larger wallets are still net distributors, not accumulators. Durable bottoms rarely form while that supply overhang persists. [51] - Technical breakdown risk remains.
The prior bear‑flag break on the chart implies a possible path toward $66,800 if $80,400 fails. Even the bullish ascending triangle from CoinCentral acknowledges a drop back into the mid‑$80Ks if resistance at $93K–$94K rejects price. [52]
In short, today’s surge does not eliminate the possibility of another leg down if macro winds shift or ETF demand fades.
What Traders and Investors Are Watching Next
Here are the main levels and catalysts most analyses converge on:
Key Price Zones
- $80,400: Structural support for December; a clean break below opens downside toward the high‑$60Ks. [53]
- $86K–$88K: Resilient “floor” of the post‑October consolidation; repeated successful tests keep the bull case alive. [54]
- $93K–$94K: Current battleground; needs a daily close above for triangle confirmation. [55]
- $97K–$101K: Breakout validation zone; reclaiming this corridor with volume would erase the prior bear‑flag breakdown. [56]
- $102.8K: Measured move target of the ascending triangle pattern. [57]
- $126K: October’s all‑time high and the next major structural resistance on multi‑month timeframes. [58]
Macro and Flow Catalysts
- Upcoming central‑bank meetings, particularly the Fed and BoJ, which will drive the fate of rate‑cut hopes and the yen carry trade. [59]
- The persistence and size of spot ETF inflows following Vanguard’s policy shift. Investors will be watching whether IBIT, FBTC, and peers can keep stacking positive days. [60]
- Changes in on‑chain behavior — especially whether whale inflows to exchanges slow and Hodler Net Position shifts back toward accumulation. [61]
Final Thoughts: A High‑Beta Asset in a Macro Tug‑of‑War
As of December 3, 2025, Bitcoin’s price story is one of violent mean‑reversion:
- The asset has rebounded from near‑term panic lows thanks to a powerful combination of Vanguard’s ETF green‑light, softer rate expectations, and renewed ETF inflows. [62]
- Yet on‑chain stress and a fragile macro environment mean this move could still morph into either the start of a new leg to $100K+ or just a spectacular bear‑market rally.
Across today’s news and forecasts, one theme is consistent:
Bitcoin is no longer an isolated, purely crypto‑native trade. It lives at the intersection of global liquidity, institutional risk models, and regulatory regimes — and its path into year‑end will be decided as much in central‑bank press conferences and ETF flows as on any on‑chain chart.
As always, this article is informational only and not investment advice. Crypto remains highly volatile; never invest more than you can afford to lose, and consider consulting a qualified financial adviser before making major allocation decisions.
References
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