Date: Wednesday, November 12, 2025
Market snapshot
Bitcoin is trading around $104,874 today after an early slide, with an intraday range between ~$102,460 and ~$105,465 at press time. That keeps BTC comfortably above the psychologically important $100,000 mark but below October’s record peak.
Altcoins are softer: Ether is down roughly 3% on the day near the mid‑$3,400s, while Solana is off by around 5%. Privacy‑focused tokens are bucking the trend and showing relative strength. 1
What’s moving Bitcoin today
1) Washington watch: House vote to end the record shutdown
The U.S. House is slated to vote today on a stopgap funding bill that would end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, after the Senate advanced the measure earlier this week. The deal would fund the government through January 30 and restore paused services such as SNAP benefits and air traffic control operations. Risk assets are reacting unevenly as traders weigh the timing and quality of the economic data that will resume post‑shutdown. 2
Stocks leaned higher into the session—most notably the Dow—while crypto remains tentative, underscoring a rotation toward equities that accelerated after the Senate passed the funding bill. 3
2) Macro cross‑currents: Dollar and yields
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is holding near 99.5 as hopes for a shutdown resolution and mixed growth signals keep currency markets range‑bound. U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields eased toward ~4.09%, reflecting a cautious bid for bonds. For BTC, a steady dollar and softer yields are typically supportive, but today the bid is modest. 4
3) Flows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs swing back to inflows
After two tough weeks of redemptions, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped back with $524 million of net inflows on Tuesday (Nov. 11), according to tallies widely tracked by Farside and reported this morning. Other reads show a broader return to positive flows this week after prior outflows. These improvements help stabilize price action but haven’t yet reignited a full risk‑on impulse. 5
4) Volatility is waking up
Bitcoin’s realized/forward volatility had been subdued for much of 2025. Analysts note that crypto volatility gauges are breaking higher, pointing to a phase of bigger price swings ahead as liquidity thins and macro catalysts pile up. 6
5) Fresh headlines on the tape
- China–U.S. tension: Beijing publicly accused the U.S. of involvement in a 2020 theft of ~$13B in BTC, a geopolitical headline that added to morning volatility but did not shift the broader trend. 7
- ETF expansion momentum: In the background, the ETF race continues to widen across crypto. A spot Solana ETF that launched late last month gathered quick assets—signaling persistent institutional appetite for digital‑asset exposure even through the shutdown period. 8
Price context: From October’s record to today’s range
BTC is now ~17%–22% below its early‑October all‑time high near $126,000, set during a burst of ETF‑driven enthusiasm. Strategists at JPMorgan argued last week that after October’s deleveraging, Bitcoin looks undervalued versus gold on a volatility‑adjusted basis, with a medium‑term fair‑value case closer to $170,000 if flows return. 9
Technical levels traders are watching (spot references)
- Support: $102,000–$103,000 (overnight lows), then $100,000 as a psychological floor.
- Resistance: $105,500 intraday, then $107,000–$110,000 where supply capped recent bounces.
A decisive move above the mid‑$105Ks would open a path to retest $107K–$110K, while a close back under $103K risks another probe of the big round number at $100K.
Miners & network: A small difficulty relief is due
Mining economics may get a modest breather: models point to a ~2.5%–3% downward difficulty adjustment later today (UTC). Slightly easier mining conditions can reduce near‑term sell pressure from weaker miners, at the margin. 10
Altcoins: Mixed, with privacy tokens firmer
Beyond BTC, the day’s tone is cautious. ETH trades lower near $3,450 (‑~3% 24h), SOL lags, and privacy tokens are outperforming as traders rotate into niches with idiosyncratic catalysts. That dispersion underlines the market’s “search for shelter” while majors consolidate. 1
The next 48 hours: Key catalysts to watch
- House shutdown vote (today): Passage could normalize data releases and reduce policy uncertainty—conditions risk assets typically prefer. 2
- U.S. CPI (Thursday, Nov. 13 — October data): Scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET; with the shutdown delays, traders will parse any catch‑up prints carefully. 11
- Fed Minutes (Nov. 19): Additional color on how divided the FOMC is over a December rate cut—a live debate that has weighed on speculative assets, crypto included. 12
- Daily ETF flow prints: Another positive day would reinforce the mid‑$100K base. 13
Bottom line
Bitcoin spent Wednesday stabilizing near $105K after briefly dipping toward $103K. A likely House vote to reopen the U.S. government and a steady dollar/yield backdrop offered mild support, but crypto traders remain cautious ahead of Thursday’s CPI and as volatility indicators stir. If ETF inflows continue to rebuild, BTC’s recent base above $100K looks defensible; failure there would refocus attention on the round‑number floor and October’s deleveraging scars. 14
This article is for information only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency is a highly volatile asset class—only invest what you can afford to lose.
