December 22, 2025 — Bitfarms Ltd. (NASDAQ: BITF; TSX: BITF) is starting the week with a rare “three-engine” narrative that can move a stock fast: a major Canadian index inclusion, a high-profile strategic pivot from pure Bitcoin mining toward HPC/AI infrastructure, and a fresh round of forecast revisions from analysts tracking the company’s post-earnings trajectory. [1]
This matters because Bitfarms sits at the intersection of two hype-prone markets (crypto and AI data centers) while also carrying the real-world constraints that decide winners—power access, financing, construction timelines, and execution discipline. Here’s what’s driving the BITF conversation as of December 22, 2025, and what investors will likely be watching next.
Today’s headline: Bitfarms joins the S&P/TSX Composite Index
The biggest “calendar” catalyst landing on Monday, December 22, 2025 is Bitfarms’ addition to the S&P/TSX Composite Index, effective prior to the open of trading, as part of S&P Dow Jones Indices’ quarterly review. [2]
In the official index-change announcement carried by FT’s company releases feed, Bitfarms is listed among the additions and categorized under Information Technology / Application Software (a classification that’s notable for a firm historically known as a Bitcoin miner). [3]
Market coverage around the inclusion circulated late Sunday as well, reinforcing the near-term spotlight on BITF into today’s session. [4]
Why index inclusion can move a stock (even without “new fundamentals”)
Index additions often create a mechanical demand burst: index funds and benchmark-aware strategies may need to buy shares to reflect the updated composition. The effect can show up as higher volume, short-term volatility, and sometimes a “buy-the-event / sell-the-event” pattern—especially for smaller, more sentiment-driven names.
Bitfarms is exactly the type of stock where that can matter: it’s liquid, volatile, and widely traded by thematic investors who respond to catalysts.
Where Bitfarms stock stands heading into Dec. 22
While U.S. markets were closed over the weekend, Bitfarms ended last week with a strong move. MarketBeat data shows BITF at $2.53 at the Dec. 19, 2025 close (U.S. listing), up about 11% on the day. [5]
On the TSX, MarketScreener shows Bitfarms at C$3.49 at the Dec. 19 close, up 11.86%. [6]
Those price points frame the near-term setup: today’s index inclusion arrives after a notable up-day, which can amplify both momentum trading and profit-taking.
The bigger strategic story: Bitfarms is building an AI data center thesis on top of its power footprint
Bitfarms’ corporate messaging in 2025 has been consistent: the company is repositioning from an “international Bitcoin miner” toward a North American energy and digital infrastructure platform that can serve high-performance computing (HPC) and AI workloads—while still mining Bitcoin in the interim. [7]
Washington State conversion: a concrete HPC/AI project with a 2026 target
A key proof point is the plan to convert an 18 MW Bitcoin mining facility in Washington State into an HPC/AI site designed for up to 190 kW per rack with advanced liquid cooling. The company targets completion in December 2026. [8]
Bitfarms also disclosed a fully funded, binding agreement of US$128 million with a large publicly traded U.S. multinational data-center infrastructure provider to supply critical equipment and materials for that 18 MW buildout, with an anticipated power usage effectiveness (PuE, effectively a data-center efficiency metric) between 1.2 and 1.3. [9]
This is the kind of detail investors look for when separating “AI pivot marketing” from an actual build plan: capacity, rack density, cooling approach, a named capex envelope, and a timeline.
The power portfolio: the scarce resource AI and miners fight over
In its Q3 2025 results, Bitfarms described an updated energy portfolio totaling 2.1 GW of U.S. and Canada power infrastructure assets, including 341 MW energized, 440 MW secured contracted growth, and 1,360 MW under application. [10]
That matters because, in the AI data-center race, available power + interconnection + fiber often determines who can actually deliver capacity—not just who has the best deck.
Financing and liquidity: Bitfarms raised big money to fund the pivot
In capital-intensive infrastructure, strategy is only as real as the financing behind it. Bitfarms spent much of 2025 strengthening liquidity and reshaping its funding stack.
Convertible senior notes: $588 million gross, low coupon, long runway
Bitfarms closed an offering of US$588 million aggregate principal amount of 1.375% convertible senior notes due 2031 (including the initial purchasers’ option). The company reported approximately US$568 million in net proceeds (before capped call costs). [11]
The notes carried an initial conversion price of approximately US$6.86 per share (per the company’s release at issuance) and Bitfarms also purchased capped calls designed to offset dilution up to a cap price initially set around US$11.88. [12]
Macquarie project financing: Panther Creek buildout
Bitfarms also converted a Macquarie debt facility into an up to $300 million project-specific financing facility for its Panther Creek, Pennsylvania campus development, with the company drawing additional funds to accelerate long-lead equipment purchases and early works. The release described a 350 MW campus and stated energization for Phase 1 is expected by year-end 2026, with ground-breaking targeted in Q4 2025. [13]
Liquidity snapshot: a war chest (by miner standards)
In its Q3 2025 report, Bitfarms stated that as of Nov. 12, 2025, it had approximately $814 million in total liquidity, comprised of about $637 million in cash and $177 million in unencumbered Bitcoin. [14]
For a company transitioning from mining into data-center infrastructure, that liquidity figure is central to the bull case: it suggests Bitfarms can fund early-stage site development, interconnections, and equipment lead times without immediately returning to markets for highly dilutive equity.
Q3 2025 performance: improving revenue, but still a volatile earnings profile
The most recent quarterly results remain a reminder that—today—Bitfarms is still largely evaluated like a miner, with earnings sensitivity to Bitcoin price, network difficulty, uptime, and fleet efficiency.
In Q3 2025 (continuing operations), Bitfarms reported:
- Revenue of $69 million (continuing ops), plus $14 million from discontinued operations [15]
- Net loss of $46 million, or $0.08 per share [16]
- Adjusted EBITDA of $20 million (28% of revenue) [17]
- 520 BTC earned at an average direct cost per BTC of $48,200 [18]
Bitfarms also noted it discontinued Argentina and Paraguay operations as part of its strategic shift to North American HPC/AI infrastructure projects, including impairment and reclassification impacts in the quarter’s discontinued operations. [19]
The takeaway: operationally, Bitfarms is trying to run mining efficiently enough to generate cash flow while redirecting capital and organizational attention toward HPC/AI.
Forecasts and analyst revisions: targets remain upbeat, but 2025 expectations were cut after Q3
Analyst sentiment around Bitfarms is split in an unusually “modern” way: many are optimistic about the AI infrastructure angle, but near-term modeling still reflects mining pressure and execution risk.
Visible Alpha / S&P Global: post-Q3 forecast cuts for 2025
S&P Global Market Intelligence (via Visible Alpha) reported that Bitfarms’ Q3 revenue miss triggered notable downward revisions to 2025 forecasts, including:
- Expected 2025 total revenue revised to $268 million (from $317 million pre-earnings) [20]
- Mining revenue revised to $254 million (from $302 million) [21]
- Non-mining revenue revised higher to $23 million (from $14 million) [22]
- Expected 2025 Bitcoin production projected at 2,235 BTC (vs. 2,914 BTC the prior year, per the same analysis) [23]
That same analysis also notes that a higher expected Bitcoin price (Visible Alpha estimate cited at $105,768) could soften the impact of lower production volumes, and it points to an expectation of narrowing gross losses with a return to gross profitability anticipated in 2026. [24]
This is a key nuance for the Dec. 22 narrative: the market may be trading the “AI data center optionality,” but 2025 modeling is still heavily constrained by mining realities.
MarketBeat consensus: “Moderate Buy,” $4.25 average target
On the traditional “12-month price target” view, MarketBeat’s consensus for Bitfarms as of Dec. 22, 2025 shows:
- Consensus rating: Moderate Buy
- Ratings count: 9 analysts (8 buy, 1 sell)
- Consensus price target: $4.25 (with targets ranging from $2.00 to $7.00) [25]
Price targets should never be treated like physics, but they do tell you what the Street is emotionally prepared to believe—and for BITF, the range itself highlights uncertainty and optionality.
Institutional positioning: Aurelius shows up with a sizable BITF stake
One of the more concrete “who’s buying” data points in this cycle is a Form 13F filing from Aurelius Capital Management.
In Aurelius’ Form 13F information table for the period ending Sept. 30, 2025 (filed Nov. 13, 2025), the fund reported owning 6,737,261 shares of Bitfarms Ltd., valued at $18,999,076. [26]
A single fund doesn’t make a trend, but the presence of specialized capital can matter for a company attempting a complex pivot—especially if the stock begins to attract a broader “AI infrastructure” investor base rather than being bucketed purely with miners.
What to watch next: catalysts that can reshape the BITF story in 2026
With Bitfarms now entering major Canadian benchmarks and already talking like a future data-center operator, the market will likely focus on execution signals—things that can’t be faked with buzzwords.
Key items to monitor over the next quarters include:
- Milestones on the Washington HPC/AI conversion, especially customer/monetization structure (colocation vs. cloud/GPU-as-a-service) and build progress toward the December 2026 target [27]
- Panther Creek financing drawdowns and construction progress, given the scale implied and the YE 2026 energization expectation for Phase 1 [28]
- Capital discipline: how much of the liquidity war chest gets converted into long-lead equipment and site work versus held for flexibility [29]
- Mining efficiency and margin management, because the “bridge period” before HPC/AI revenue scales still matters [30]
- Further analyst estimate resets as the market absorbs what portion of “non-mining revenue” becomes durable and recurring [31]
Risks investors keep circling (because the universe loves irony)
Bitfarms’ opportunity is real—but so are the traps:
- Bitcoin volatility and network difficulty can squeeze mining cash flows right when the company needs consistent funding for buildouts. [32]
- Data center execution risk is unforgiving: interconnection delays, equipment lead times, cooling complexity, and commissioning timelines can slip—even for experienced operators. [33]
- AI infrastructure cycles can overshoot (too much capacity chasing the same customers), which would pressure returns just as large projects come online.
- Financing and dilution complexity: convertible notes can be shareholder-friendly or not, depending on where the stock trades over time and how capital allocation decisions play out. [34]
In other words: Bitfarms is trying to graduate from a commodity-style business (mining) into a contracted infrastructure business (HPC/AI). The market will reward evidence of that graduation—and punish delays.
Bottom line for Dec. 22, 2025
Bitfarms stock is in the spotlight today because the company is being added to the S&P/TSX Composite Index effective before the open, a change that can create short-term demand and amplify attention. [35]
Underneath the index catalyst, the strategic transformation remains the real long-range driver: Bitfarms has laid out specific HPC/AI conversion plans (starting with an 18 MW Washington site targeting Dec. 2026) and assembled meaningful financing (including $588 million in convertible notes and a $300 million project facility for Panther Creek). [36]
Analysts are simultaneously trimming near-term mining expectations while acknowledging the potential for non-mining revenue growth and a possible profitability inflection as infrastructure comes online. [37]
That combination—index-driven visibility today, execution-driven proof over the next 12–24 months—is why BITF remains one of the more closely watched “crypto-to-AI infrastructure” stocks entering 2026.
References
1. markets.ft.com, 2. markets.ft.com, 3. markets.ft.com, 4. www.marketscreener.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.marketscreener.com, 7. investor.bitfarms.com, 8. investor.bitfarms.com, 9. investor.bitfarms.com, 10. investor.bitfarms.com, 11. investor.bitfarms.com, 12. investor.bitfarms.com, 13. investor.bitfarms.com, 14. investor.bitfarms.com, 15. investor.bitfarms.com, 16. investor.bitfarms.com, 17. investor.bitfarms.com, 18. investor.bitfarms.com, 19. investor.bitfarms.com, 20. www.spglobal.com, 21. www.spglobal.com, 22. www.spglobal.com, 23. www.spglobal.com, 24. www.spglobal.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.sec.gov, 27. investor.bitfarms.com, 28. investor.bitfarms.com, 29. investor.bitfarms.com, 30. investor.bitfarms.com, 31. www.spglobal.com, 32. investor.bitfarms.com, 33. investor.bitfarms.com, 34. investor.bitfarms.com, 35. markets.ft.com, 36. investor.bitfarms.com, 37. www.spglobal.com
