Dec. 19, 2025 — BlackBerry Limited (NYSE: BB; TSX: BB) is back on traders’ screens after reporting third-quarter fiscal 2026 results that topped expectations and raising the low end of its full-year revenue outlook. In early Friday pricing, BB traded around $4.33 per share, reflecting the market’s still-mixed reaction to a report that paired improving profitability with questions about how fast growth can sustainably compound from here.
The headline narrative is simple: BlackBerry is increasingly a “QNX + Secure Communications” story—and the latest quarter delivered evidence that both pillars can generate real cash flow, not just “turnaround talk.” But beneath that headline, investors are sorting through three more nuanced questions:
- How durable is QNX growth as automakers standardize software platforms?
- Is Secure Communications becoming steadier (recurring) or still lumpy (event-driven)?
- Does the updated outlook justify a higher valuation after BB’s rally over the past year?
The news driving BlackBerry stock on Dec. 19
Most of today’s coverage traces to BlackBerry’s Q3 FY2026 earnings (quarter ended Nov. 30, 2025) and the company’s updated outlook. Reuters highlighted the shift directly: BlackBerry raised the lower end of its fiscal 2026 revenue forecast to $531 million–$541 million, citing resilient demand for its cybersecurity software in an environment of escalating and increasingly AI-enabled threats. [1]
At the same time, BlackBerry has spent the week promoting the scale of its automotive footprint. Its QNX division announced that QNX software is now embedded in more than 275 million vehicles worldwide, a milestone confirmed by Counterpoint Research. [2]
Those two threads—security demand and QNX scale—form the core “why now” for BB stock.
BlackBerry Q3 FY2026 earnings: the numbers investors are keying on
In its official results release, BlackBerry reported total revenue of $141.8 million, above previously provided guidance, and emphasized profitability and cash flow improvements alongside continued QNX strength. [3]
Key reported highlights from the quarter included:
- Total revenue:$141.8M (up $12.2M sequentially, down $1.8M year over year) [4]
- GAAP net income:$13.7M; third consecutive quarter of positive GAAP net income [5]
- Non-GAAP basic EPS:$0.05; GAAP basic EPS:$0.02 [6]
- Adjusted EBITDA:$28.7M (about a 20% margin) [7]
- Operating cash flow:+$17.9M [8]
- Cash and investments: roughly $378M at quarter end [9]
- Share repurchases: about $5M (approximately 1.2M shares) [10]
From a “quality of quarter” standpoint, two segment datapoints stood out:
QNX: record revenue, strong margins
- QNX revenue:$68.7M, up 10% year over year (a quarterly record) [11]
- QNX segment adjusted gross margin:84% [12]
- QNX adjusted EBITDA:$16.4M (about 24% of revenue) [13]
Secure Communications: revenue beat, but investors are parsing the mix
- Secure Communications revenue:$67.0M, beating guidance [14]
- Secure Communications ARR:$216M [15]
- Dollar-based net retention rate (DBNRR):92% [16]
That 92% DBNRR is one of those quietly important numbers: it suggests that, on average, customers are spending less than they did a year ago (net of churn and expansion), even if the business is performing well on quarterly revenue and profitability. [17]
Guidance update: what BlackBerry is forecasting next
BlackBerry’s updated outlook is a big reason BB stock is being covered so widely today. The company provided guidance for both Q4 FY2026 and the full fiscal year FY2026 (ending Feb. 28, 2026). [18]
Q4 FY2026 guidance (company outlook)
Segment-level Q4 guidance is unusually specific (and therefore unusually useful for modeling):
- QNX revenue:$71M–$77M
- Secure Communications revenue:$61M–$65M
- Licensing revenue: approximately $6M [22]
Full-year FY2026 guidance (company outlook)
- Total revenue:$531M–$541M (raised low end) [23]
- Non-GAAP EPS:$0.14–$0.16 [24]
- Total company adjusted EBITDA:$94M–$104M [25]
Reuters emphasized that the raised lower bound signals confidence in demand, particularly for cybersecurity offerings, as organizations increase spending to counter sophisticated attacks. [26]
QNX momentum: why “275 million vehicles” matters for BB stock
If you want a single phrase that explains why long-term investors still argue about BlackBerry (in the best way), it’s this: QNX is embedded—and embedded software is sticky.
This week, QNX said Counterpoint Research confirmed that QNX software is now embedded in more than 275 million vehicles worldwide, an increase of 100 million since 2020. The company framed that milestone as evidence QNX is positioned as foundational infrastructure for the shift toward software-defined vehicles (SDVs). [27]
From an investing lens, that milestone matters because it reinforces three potential tailwinds:
- Scale as a credibility moat: OEMs building safety-certified vehicle systems care deeply about proven deployments.
- Lifecycle economics: Automotive platforms tend to run for years; design wins can translate into long-duration revenue streams.
- Adjacent expansion: BlackBerry’s CEO explicitly pointed to QNX extending “deeper into automotive” and “into adjacent verticals.” [28]
Recent QNX commercial wins adding fuel
Earlier this month, BlackBerry announced that a leading Chinese automaker selected QNX Sound for its next-generation luxury EV lineup (2026), pitching the solution as software-defined audio that can reduce hardware complexity and cost. [29]
BlackBerry also reiterated in its Q3 results materials that a leading Chinese automaker selected QNX Sound—one of several business highlights it believes supports continued QNX momentum. [30]
Secure Communications: strong quarter, but analysts are debating repeatability
BlackBerry’s Secure Communications segment is where the “cybersecurity” label still shows up most prominently in day-to-day operations (even after the company exited its Cylance endpoint-security assets).
On the product and deployment side, BlackBerry has been stacking announcements that align with a “sovereign secure communications” theme:
- SecuSUITE expanded to Windows devices, with general availability positioned for November 2025, extending encrypted communications beyond mobile endpoints into desktops/laptops. [31]
- Malaysia’s government deployed BlackBerry solutions (AtHoc and SecuSUITE) to secure communications around the 46th and 47th ASEAN Summits, underscoring public-sector demand for “sovereign-grade” security in high-stakes coordination. [32]
- BlackBerry signed a multi-year education partnership with Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) focused on cyber-defenders and embedded software talent—an initiative that also keeps BlackBerry’s brand embedded in regional public-sector ecosystems. [33]
On the financial side, Secure Communications posted $67.0M in revenue and $216M in ARR, but DBNRR at 92% will likely keep investors cautious about assuming clean, linear recurring growth. [34]
RBC’s read-through: “mixed” despite the beat
A notable piece of analysis published today said RBC Capital Markets reiterated a Sector Perform rating and $4.50 price target after Q3 results. The commentary argued that some outperformance was tied to one-time revenue in Secure Communications, while also flagging potential deceleration in QNX growth implied by forward guidance—leading RBC to keep a neutral stance on valuation versus growth. [35]
That tension—great quarter, but what’s “repeatable”?—is a big reason BB stock can rally on results and still feel fragile afterward.
Analyst forecasts for BB stock: price targets and consensus view
Wall Street’s aggregated stance remains cautious-but-not-dismissive.
- MarketBeat shows a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average 12‑month price target around $5.10, with targets ranging from roughly $4.50 (low) to $6.00 (high). [36]
- MarketWatch’s published estimates also reflect a Hold-leaning consensus with an average target price around $5.06. [37]
In other words: analysts aren’t collectively calling BB “the next rocket ship,” but they’re also not pricing it like a melting ice cube—especially after BlackBerry’s guide-up cadence and improving profitability.
One thing worth noting (because it trips up readers): different data providers sometimes show different “consensus” targets depending on which brokers they say are in the sample and which listing/currency they’re standardizing. For example, a Nasdaq-hosted note referencing Fintel data described a much lower average one-year price target at that time, even while also noting CIBC maintained an Outperform rating. [38]
That doesn’t invalidate the broader story, but it does mean serious investors usually cross-check targets across multiple aggregators rather than treating any single “consensus” number as gospel.
The bigger picture: BlackBerry’s post-Cylance reset is showing up in the financials
It’s hard to discuss modern BlackBerry without acknowledging the portfolio simplification that reshaped the company’s story.
BlackBerry completed the sale of its Cylance endpoint-security assets to Arctic Wolf in early 2025—part of a strategy to focus on segments where it believed it had stronger economics and clearer differentiation. [39]
Earlier in fiscal 2026, Reuters had noted BlackBerry began the year forecasting a revenue decline amid softer cybersecurity demand, making the subsequent guide-ups over the year more notable as execution improved. [40]
The result, as of this quarter, is a BB thesis that’s less about “legacy smartphone nostalgia” and more about whether QNX + Secure Communications can keep producing:
- high gross margins,
- credible profitability, and
- consistent cash generation,
while still posting enough growth to justify re-rating the stock.
What could move BlackBerry stock next
Going into calendar 2026, BB stock’s catalysts and risks are unusually clear (a nice change from the meme-era chaos of years past).
Potential catalysts
- More QNX design wins (especially in EVs and SDV architectures) that translate into forward revenue visibility. [41]
- Sustained GAAP profitability and delivery against the company’s Q4 cash flow outlook (which is ambitious versus Q3 levels). [42]
- Secure Communications becoming less lumpy, with DBNRR stabilizing closer to (or above) 100% over time. [43]
Key risks
- Automotive platform timing: QNX can be “sticky,” but vehicle programs and launches have long cycles, and macro shocks can delay rollouts.
- Revenue quality questions: if upside keeps coming from one-offs rather than durable subscription expansion, BB can keep “beating” without re-rating. [44]
- Competitive pressure: both automotive software stacks and enterprise secure communications are crowded categories, and incumbents don’t stand still.
Bottom line
BlackBerry’s latest quarter gives BB bulls real ammunition: record QNX revenue, improving profitability, positive operating cash flow, and a raised full-year revenue floor. [45]
At the same time, the more skeptical read—reflected in today’s RBC commentary—holds that the stock is still priced for a decent amount of good news, and some of the quarter’s strength may not be fully repeatable if growth decelerates or if Secure Communications remains event-driven. [46]
That’s why BlackBerry stock can feel like a paradox: it’s no longer the chaotic handset-era relic people joke about, but it’s also not yet the kind of “obvious compounder” that consensus analysts stamp with enthusiastic Buy ratings. For investors and traders, the next few quarters are about one thing: turning today’s momentum into consistency—especially in cash flow and retention.
References
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