- Q3 Results: Distributable (adjusted) EPS was $1.52 (up 48% Y/Y) vs. $1.23 expected [1]. (GAAP EPS fell to $0.80 from $1.02, and revenue fell ~15.7% to $3.09B [2].)
- Stock Movement: BX traded near ~$160 on Oct 23, about 1% lower intraday [3]. The stock is roughly 6% below its 2025 high and about 6% down year-to-date [4] [5].
- Hologic Buyout: Blackstone and partner TPG agreed to take medical diagnostics maker Hologic private in a deal worth $18.3B (including debt) [6]. They will pay $76 in cash per Hologic share (plus up to $3 in contingent value rights) [7] – a ~46% premium on Hologic’s share price before talks [8]. BTIG analyst Ryan Zimmerman called the price “fair for all parties” and said the deal is positive for the broader healthcare sector [9].
- GCC Logistics Push: Blackstone also joined Abu Dhabi’s Lunate to launch GLIDE, a $5 billion logistics platform for Gulf Cooperation Council markets [10]. Blackstone COO Jon Gray said the GCC’s economic transformation is creating “powerful momentum” for logistics investments [11].
- Analyst Outlook: Piper Sandler’s Crispin Love notes that the Q3 beat reflects a late-cycle pick-up in deal activity (“plenty of pent-up demand… beginning to see that come through”) [12]. Most analysts remain cautiously optimistic: Evercore ISI recently cut its 12‑month BX price target to $180 (still Outperform) [13], and the consensus target is roughly $182–$186 [14]. Other firms (Barclays, KBW, etc.) have also trimmed targets in October, citing more muted outlooks [15].
- Outlook/What to Watch: Investors will watch the Fed’s Oct. 28–29 meeting (any rate changes could affect private-credit valuations) and credit market signals (recent bankruptcies have stoked concern [16]). Key catalysts include Blackstone’s Q4 2025 earnings (early 2026), progress on the Hologic merger (expected close H1 2026 [17]), and continued deal flow from its ~$188 billion “dry powder” [18]. Chart analysts note near-term support around $156 and resistance near $186 [19]; a clear break either way may signal further moves for BX.
Q3 Earnings and Market Reaction
Blackstone’s latest results (for the quarter ended Sept. 30) painted a mixed picture. The firm reported distributable earnings of $1.889 billion ($1.52 per share), up 48% from a year ago and well above the $1.23 forecast [20]. (Distributable earnings roughly measure cash profits available for dividends.) However, on a GAAP basis net income dropped to $624.9 million ($0.80/share) from $780.8 million last year, and total revenue slid about 15.7% year-over-year [21]. Investors focused on the earnings miss and slowing revenue, which partly offset the beat on cash profit. As a result, BX shares dipped about 1% intraday on Oct. 23, trading around $160 [22]. (That’s still below the ~$200 peak hit earlier in 2025.)
CEO Steve Schwarzman nonetheless called Q3 “exceptional” due to momentum across Blackstone’s businesses [23]. Piper Sandler analyst Crispin Love said the better-than-expected results were driven by a surge in realized performance fees – reflecting renewed deal activity – after a multi‑year lull. “There’s been a lot of pent-up demand… and you’re beginning to see that come through,” Love said, adding that this sets up 2026 for a potential boom in IPOs and exits [24]. Indeed, Blackstone sold roughly $30 billion of investments in Q3 (including ~$9.3B of private equity assets), more than doubling its PE segment earnings from the prior quarter [25]. Meanwhile, its credit and insurance arm continued to attract huge capital: $54.2 billion of new inflows in Q3 lifted Blackstone’s total assets under management to a record $1.24 trillion [26]. The firm finished the quarter with about $11.1 billion in cash and equivalents, and declared a $1.29 dividend per share payable in November [27].
Strategic Moves: Hologic Deal & GLIDE Logistics
Outside the core results, Blackstone made headlines with two big strategic announcements. On Oct. 21 it confirmed that Blackstone and TPG would acquire Hologic for $18.3 billion [28]. The deal values Hologic at $76 per share in cash plus a $3 contingent-value right (CVR) tied to revenue targets [29]. Hologic management projects closing in the first half of 2026 (pending shareholder and regulatory approval) [30] [31]. Hologic shares jumped ~3% on the news, and BTIG’s Ryan Zimmerman commented that the offer is “generally positive” for the sector [32].
In another move, Blackstone teamed up with Abu Dhabi’s Lunate to launch GLIDE, a Gulf logistics platform targeting $5 billion of warehouse investments [33]. The fund will pursue new-build (greenfield) logistics projects and sale-leasebacks across GCC countries. Blackstone President/COO Jon Gray said the Gulf’s “economic transformation… is creating powerful momentum” for logistics assets [34], pointing to strong demand from growing trade and e-commerce. (Last month Blackstone also took a minority stake in UAE property marketplace Property Finder.) These initiatives underline Blackstone’s push into high-growth areas (healthcare tech via Hologic, and industrial real estate via GLIDE).
Analyst Perspectives & Market Sentiment
Analysts are parsing all this news with a mix of enthusiasm and caution. MarketBeat reports that Evercore ISI cut its BX 12-month price target to $180 (from $197) on Oct. 22, while keeping an Outperform rating [35]. Barclays and KBW similarly lowered their targets (to ~$171) around mid-October [36]. Overall, data show about 11 Buys, 9 Holds and no Sells on BX, with a mean target near $182 [37] [38]. The implication is roughly a 15% upside if consensus plays out.
Beyond targets, analysts highlight Blackstone’s strong fee income and capital position. Piper Sandler’s Love and others note the inflow surge into credit/insurance (now two-thirds of new capital [39]) bodes well for recurring earnings. Blackstone’s dividend yield (~2.6%) and buyback capacity (~$1.7B authorization left) also support the stock. On the other hand, the sector is not immune to macro risks: Reuters notes that recent corporate bankruptcies (e.g. auto-parts firm First Brands) have heightened credit-quality concerns for alternative managers [40]. Indeed, Blackstone’s stock is currently slightly off its recent highs as investors await clearer signs on the economy.
Technically, BX is trading near short-term support around $156, with resistance near $186 [41]. A sustained move below support could signal further weakness, while a break above $180–185 might rekindle investor confidence. For now, the mixed Q3 report suggests patience – the company beat on cash profits but showed strain in traditional earnings metrics.
Outlook: What Investors Should Watch
Looking ahead, several catalysts could sway BX’s trajectory. The Federal Reserve’s next meeting (Oct 28–29) will be closely watched: any surprise on interest rates or guidance could affect borrowing costs for credit deals, a core part of Blackstone’s business. Economic reports (e.g. late-October inflation or employment data) could likewise shift market sentiment.
On the corporate side, Blackstone’s Q4 2025 results (expected early 2026) will reveal whether the fundraising and deal momentum continues. The Hologic acquisition will need antitrust clearance and a shareholder vote; it’s currently expected to close in H1 2026 [42]. Similarly, progress on other deal targets (IPOs, add-on purchases) is critical. Notably, Blackstone still sits on roughly $188 billion of unspent capital [43]. If it can deploy that “dry powder” into profitable transactions amid stabilizing markets, the stock could rebound. Investors should also monitor sector trends: as Piper Sandler suggests, any uptick in IPOs and exit activity next year could boost performance fees.
In summary, while Blackstone delivered a strong adjusted profit beat and has major new initiatives (Hologic and GLIDE), the share pullback highlights investor caution about overall profitability and macro risks. The next few months – including policy decisions, credit market cues and early-2026 earnings – will likely determine if BX’s midterm outlook stays bright or warrants further correction.
Sources: Official filings and press releases from Blackstone/Hologic [44] [45]; Reuters, Benzinga, MarketBeat and ts2.tech news reports [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54]. Each cited source provides detailed coverage of the items above.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. ts2.tech, 3. www.benzinga.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.benzinga.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. investors.hologic.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.chartmill.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.chartmill.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. ts2.tech, 22. www.benzinga.com, 23. www.benzinga.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.benzinga.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. investors.hologic.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. www.marketbeat.com, 37. www.chartmill.com, 38. www.marketbeat.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.chartmill.com, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. investors.hologic.com, 45. investors.hologic.com, 46. www.reuters.com, 47. ts2.tech, 48. www.reuters.com, 49. www.reuters.com, 50. www.benzinga.com, 51. www.reuters.com, 52. www.marketbeat.com, 53. www.chartmill.com, 54. www.reuters.com
