Block (NYSE:XYZ) Lifts 2026 Forecast After Q2 Results Outpace Estimates, Driving Improved Profit Flow

Block (NYSE:XYZ) Lifts 2026 Forecast After Q2 Results Outpace Estimates, Driving Improved Profit Flow

NEW YORK, August 5, 2026, 18:09 EDT

  • Block increased its full-year adjusted operating income outlook to $3.47 billion, up from the previous estimate of $3.34 billion.
  • Adjusted earnings were $1.02 per share, surpassing the LSEG estimate of 87 cents.
  • Shares dropped 1.35% in after-hours trading, giving up early gains following the results.

Block lifted its 2026 adjusted operating income forecast by $130 million and raised its gross profit outlook by $180 million. That equates to 72 cents in additional operating income for every incremental dollar of gross profit, according to a straightforward comparison to its May guidance.

Stock chart for NYSE:XYZ

This was the key signal for investors. Gross profit guidance was raised by 1.5%, and operating income guidance moved up by 3.9%. The adjusted margin goal was lifted by one point to 28%.

The quarter reflected comparable leverage as gross profit surpassed May guidance by $126 million. Adjusted operating income outpaced guidance by $124 million, almost matching gross profit gains on a narrow comparison.

According to Block’s filing and LSEG estimates, the company delivered a profit that exceeded expectations by a larger margin than its revenue surprise.

Q2 measureReportedBenchmarkVariance
Revenue$6.618 billion$6.49 billion consensus+2.0%
Gross profit$3.166 billion$3.04 billion May forecast+4.1%
Adjusted operating income$864 million$740 million May forecast+16.8%
Adjusted EPS$1.02$0.87 consensus+17.2%

U.S. regular trading ended with Block at $84.20, a decrease of 0.5%. Initial post-earnings indication touched $88. The stock then fell to $83.06 by 18:01 EDT, marking a 1.35% drop in after-hours trading.

The improved yearly forecast continues the margin improvements through the latter half.

2026 measureNew outlookMay outlookIncrease
Gross profit$12.51 billion$12.33 billion$180 million, or 1.5%
Gross-profit growth21%More than 19%About 2 percentage points
Adjusted operating income$3.47 billion$3.34 billion$130 million, or 3.9%
Adjusted operating margin28%27%1 percentage point
Adjusted EPS$4.02$3.85$0.17, or 4.4%

The profit increase is due to more than just higher demand. Product development costs dropped 16% following the organizational restructuring in February. Meanwhile, sales and marketing expenses climbed 21%, with Cash App spending up by 28%.

Growth was mainly driven by Cash App. Although its user base increased just 3%, lending, transaction activity, and monetization all expanded at a significantly higher rate.

Operating measureQ2 2026Q2 2025Change
Cash App gross profit$1.973 billion$1.501 billion+31%
Square gross profit$1.160 billion$1.027 billion+13%
Cash App monthly actives59 million57 million+3%
Cash App lending originations$18.9 billion$11.9 billion+59%
Cash App commerce volume$56.5 billion$48.3 billion+17%
Square GPV$72.85 billion$64.25 billion+13%

Cash App reported a 31% increase in profit compared to a 3% rise in user numbers, indicating greater revenue per user. The commerce monetization rate climbed by 12 basis points to reach 1.65%.

Square’s U.S. payment volume climbed by 9.8%, marking its fastest growth rate since 2023. Gross-profit growth was boosted by roughly two percentage points due to a one-time tariff reimbursement.

Chief Executive Jack Dorsey described intelligence tools as “the next major technology shift.” He noted that machine learning has for some time played a role in underwriting and fraud controls. SEC

Risks: Credit-related losses almost doubled, increasing by 99% with the growth in lending, but Block maintained cohort loss rates are still healthy. Bitcoin gross profit dropped by 31%. For Q3, the company projects gross profit to rise by 18%, slower than Q2’s 25%.

Prior to the report, shares had increased 2.5% since the close on July 29. On Wednesday, they finished up 29.4% for 2026. The shift indicates that expectations climbed alongside the stock.

Wall Street was largely optimistic ahead of the announcement, though consensus was not reached. The recommendations below were published prior to the results.

AnalystFirmRecommendationTargetDate
Richard SunderlandTruist Financial Buy, reiteratedNot statedAug. 4
James FaucetteMorgan Stanley Overweight, reiterated$90 from $98Aug. 3
Andrew HarteBTIGBuy, reiterated$90July 27
Andrew SchmittKeyBanc, unit of KeyCorp Overweight$105 from $100July 23
Andrew BauchBMO Capital, part of Bank of Montreal (TSE:BMO)Hold$85 from $78July 22

Prior to the announcement, 38 out of 45 analysts tracked had Buy or Strong Buy ratings. Seven analysts rated the stock as Hold, and none gave a Sell rating. The consensus price target averaged $93.03, but that figure may be updated after the results.

Key macroeconomic updates are scheduled for August 12 and August 14. July consumer price figures are due on Wednesday, with retail sales data expected Friday. The results will challenge the spending projections that support Block’s revised forecast.

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Further analysis

Was Block's earnings outperformance significant?
Adjusted EPS was $1.02, topping the analyst forecast of $0.87. Revenue stood at $6.62 billion, higher than the expected $6.49 billion. Gross profit increased by 25% to $3.166 billion. Adjusted operating income surged 57% to $864 million, with margin rising to 27%.
By what margin is the 2026 outlook improved?
Block lifted its gross profit forecast to $12.51 billion, indicating 21% growth, up from its previous outlook of $12.33 billion or 19% growth. Guidance for adjusted operating income was raised to $3.47 billion from $3.34 billion, and adjusted EPS guidance climbed to $4.02 from $3.85.
Does Cash App continue to be the primary driver of growth?
Gross profit from Cash App climbed 31% to $1.973 billion. Square’s gross profit rose 13% to $1.160 billion. Originations in consumer lending soared 59% to $18.9 billion. Losses from transactions, loans and consumer receivables totaled $585 million. Credit performance has become a greater focus.
What is the difference in size between GAAP profit and adjusted profit?
GAAP diluted earnings per share stood at $0.15, while adjusted EPS came in at $1.02. Operating income reached $447 million, versus $864 million on an adjusted basis. Net income declined to about $89 million from $538 million. Block set aside a $526 million accrual related to an ongoing Justice Department case. Total losses may ultimately be significantly higher.
What caused the stock to give up its early advance?
The stock climbed over 4% immediately after the announcement, before falling to $82.41 by 6 p.m. ET, marking a 2.1% drop from the $84.20 closing price. The specific cause for the move was unclear. Third-quarter gross profit guidance was in line with expectations at $3.13 billion. Bitcoin gross profit dropped 31% to $72 million.

Mateusz Kaczmarek is a financial and technology journalist at TS2.tech, covering stocks, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and global market developments. A graduate of the Poznań University of Economics and Business, he previously worked in financial analysis before moving into business journalism. His reporting focuses on technology companies, market trends and the forces shaping global investment markets. Follow Mateusz Kaczmarek on Google News.

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