Boeing (BA) Stock Outlook on December 9, 2025: Spirit AeroSystems Deal, Delivery Momentum and 2026 Price Targets

The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) is back in the headlines — and not just for safety and regulatory drama. As of December 9, 2025, Boeing stock is trading around $203 per share, giving the planemaker a market capitalization of roughly $155–160 billion. ^[1]

After a bruising multi‑year crisis, BA has quietly delivered around 30% total return over the past 12 months, beating the S&P 500’s roughly 13% gain over the same period. ^[2] Yet the stock still trades well below its 52‑week high near $243, and far from its pre‑MAX‑crisis peaks, leaving investors to ask: is this a turnaround in motion or a value trap in disguise? ^[3]

Here’s a deep dive into the latest news, forecasts and analyses on Boeing stock as of December 9, 2025, and what they may mean for investors watching BA.

Boeing Stock Snapshot on 9 December 2025

Recent price: about $203 per share in Tuesday trading.
52‑week range: roughly $129 low to $243 high. ^[4]
Market cap: about $156–157 billion. ^[5]
Valuation: Still loss‑making on GAAP earnings (negative P/E), reflecting ongoing restructuring and heavy charges. ^[6]
Performance: Around 30–31% 1‑year total return and mid‑teens year‑to‑date gain, but a double‑digit pullback over the last 3 months. ^[7]

Short version: momentum has returned, but it’s been a choppy ride, and BA remains a classic high‑beta turnaround story.

Big Headline #1: Boeing Closes the Spirit AeroSystems Acquisition

The most consequential Boeing news this week: the company has completed its $4.7 billion acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems, the main supplier of 737 MAX fuselages and a major contributor to past quality problems. Including assumed debt, the deal is worth roughly $8.3 billion. ^[8]

Key points:

Strategic U‑turn: Boeing spun off Spirit in 2005 and is now pulling it back in‑house to regain direct control over critical structures and quality. ^[9]
Safety & quality framing: Boeing’s own press release emphasizes that integrating Spirit is intended to “strengthen commercial production and supply‑chain stability” and support its broader Safety & Quality Plan. ^[10]
Regulatory backdrop: The move follows intense scrutiny after the January 2024 Alaska Airlines 737‑9 door‑plug blowout and multiple investigations into Boeing’s production system. ^[11]
Market reaction: AP and other outlets note that Boeing shares initially rose around 2% on the announcement, though some later coverage highlighted mild intraday weakness as investors digested integration risks. ^[12]

For BA stock, the Spirit deal is a double‑edged sword:

Bullish angle: Tighter control over quality, fewer finger‑pointing disputes with suppliers, and long‑term cost and scheduling benefits if integration goes well.
Bearish angle: Boeing is absorbing a troubled supplier with its own quality and financial challenges, adding debt and operational complexity at a time when the balance sheet is already stretched. ^[13]

Big Headline #2: Deliveries, Orders and a Shifting Boeing–Airbus Narrative

November Deliveries Down — But Order Book Strong

Fresh data from Reuters shows that Boeing delivered 44 jets in November, down 17% from October’s 53, and well behind Airbus’s 72 deliveries that month. ^[14]

Breakdown for November:

32 × 737 MAX
6 × 787 Dreamliners
2 × 777 freighters
4 × 767s

Despite the delivery dip, Boeing booked 164 orders and 38 cancellations, for 126 net new orders in November. Notable deals included:

74 orders for the long‑delayed 777X, split between 65 for Emirates and 9 for China Airlines, bringing Emirates’ total 777X order book to 270 jets. ^[15]
30 additional 787 Dreamliners and 43 new 737 MAX orders from undisclosed buyers. ^[16]

As of 30 November 2025, Boeing had:

Delivered 537 aircraft year‑to‑date, and
Built up a backlog of 6,019 airplanes, with total company backlog previously reported near $636 billion. ^[17]

Management and outside analysts repeatedly highlight that this huge backlog is Boeing’s main safety net, but converting it into reliable cash flow remains the central challenge.

Emirates and Gulf Air: Widebody Demand Is Alive and Well

Boeing’s order momentum in widebodies is particularly striking:

Emirates ordered 65 additional 777‑9s at the Dubai Airshow — a deal valued around $38 billion at list prices that lifts its 777X order book to 270 aircraft. ^[18]
Gulf Air finalized a firm order for 15 787 Dreamliners with options for 3 more, bringing its 787 order book to 17 jets and supporting expansion across Asia, Europe and the U.S. ^[19]

These deals reinforce the idea that long‑haul and widebody demand is robust, especially from Middle Eastern carriers, even as Boeing wrestles with execution and certification delays.

IATA: Airlines Profitable, Confidence in Boeing Improving

The macro backdrop is supportive:

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) now projects record net profits of about $41 billion for global airlines in 2026, with sector revenues expected to reach $1.053 trillion. ^[20]
IATA Director General Willie Walsh says confidence in Boeing’s delivery performance has “significantly improved”, while confidence in Airbus has weakened due to quality issues and reduced delivery targets. ^[21]

For BA shareholders, this combination — a profitable airline customer base plus improving delivery reliability — is an important tailwind for long‑term demand.

Financial Performance: 2025 Still Looks Like a Transition Year

Boeing’s headline revenue is recovering, but profits and cash flow remain fragile.

Revenue Is Rising…

Across the first three quarters of 2025, Boeing has posted strong top‑line growth:

Q1 2025: Revenue $19.5 billion, with GAAP loss per share of –$0.16 and free cash flow of –$2.3 billion. ^[22]
Q2 2025: Revenue $22.7 billion, up 35% year‑on‑year; GAAP loss per share –$0.92; operating cash flow +$0.2 billion, and free cash flow slightly negative at –$0.2 billion. ^[23]
Q3 2025: Revenue $23.3 billion, up 30%; GAAP loss per share –$7.14, driven largely by a $4.9 billion pre‑tax charge on the 777X program; operating cash flow +$1.1 billion, and positive free cash flow of about $0.2 billion. ^[24]

These results underline that Boeing can generate cash when deliveries flow, but earnings are still dominated by legacy program charges, especially 777X.

…But the Balance Sheet Is Still Heavy

Independent analysis highlights the structural challenges:

Total liabilities around $158 billion vs negative shareholders’ equity (~–$8.3 billion) as of late Q3, meaning Boeing is effectively funded by debt and customer advances rather than equity capital. ^[25]
Total debt near $53 billion, offset by about $23 billion in cash and investments, leaving net debt in the $30–31 billion range. ^[26]
Earnings have been shrinking modestly on average over the past several years, even as revenue grows mid‑single to high‑single digits annually. ^[27]

Several analysts, including those at RoboForex and other research shops, characterise Boeing today as a speculative recovery story: substantial upside if execution improves, but elevated financial risk while leverage remains high and equity negative. ^[28]

Cash Flow Guidance: New CFO Aims for Positive Free Cash Flow in 2026

A major catalyst for BA’s recent rally was commentary from new CFO Jay Malave at the UBS Global Industrials & Transportation Conference.

According to multiple reports:

Boeing now expects full‑year 2025 free cash flow of about –$2 billion, slightly better than previous guidance (roughly –$2.5 billion). ^[29]
In 2026, Malave projects low single‑digit billions of positive free cash flow, with a long‑term ambition of around $10 billion annually as production stabilizes and deliveries ramp. ^[30]
The improvement is expected to be driven by higher output of 737 MAX and 787 Dreamliners, better performance from defense and space, and continued safety‑driven process changes rather than aggressive new aircraft programs. ^[31]

The market liked what it heard:

BA shares jumped 8–10% in a single session following Malave’s remarks, leading gains in both the Dow and S&P 500. ^[32]

However, debt and bond investors have been more cautious, noting that Malave hasn’t yet laid out a detailed deleveraging path, and Boeing still faces billions in upcoming maturities plus ongoing cash drains tied to the 777X program. ^[33]

Safety, Quality and Regulatory Reset

Boeing’s investment case can’t be separated from its safety record and regulatory standing.

Safety & Quality Plan and FAA Oversight

Following the January 2024 Alaska Airlines 737‑9 door‑plug incident, Boeing rolled out a comprehensive Safety & Quality Plan, last updated on November 25, 2025. ^[34]

Key elements include:

Extensive workforce training, with thousands of employees enrolled in foundational safety and quality programs and more than 600 hours of new curriculum. ^[35]
Simplification of manufacturing instructions, new audits and “work instruction adherence” checks designed to cut defects and “traveled work” in final assembly. ^[36]
Improved tooling control, FOD prevention and production KPIs that track rework hours, supplier shortages and quality escapes. ^[37]

Regulators have started to respond:

The FAA has restored some of Boeing’s safety inspection authority for 737 and 787 airworthiness certificates, after previously taking a more hands‑on role. ^[38]
The agency also recently allowed Boeing to raise 737 MAX production from 38 to 42 jets per month, although the company is deliberately focusing on “industrial stability” before chasing higher rates. ^[39]

Cultural and Governance Questions

Despite these steps, independent analyses — including articles in professional and academic journals — argue that deep‑seated cultural issues around cost‑cutting, schedule pressure and risk management remain a concern for long‑term investors. ^[40]

In short, Boeing is doing the right things on paper, but the credibility of its safety and quality reset will only be proven over several years of incident‑free operations and consistent regulatory approvals.

Labor: The 2025 Machinists’ Strike at Boeing Defense

While commercial headlines grab attention, Boeing’s defense unit has faced its own disruption in 2025:

On August 4, 2025, about 3,200 members of IAM District 837 went on strike at facilities in Missouri and Illinois, after rejecting multiple contract offers. ^[41]
Disputes centered on wages, benefits and contract length, with workers particularly critical of lump‑sum payments and slow wage progression for long‑tenured staff. ^[42]
The strike has delayed deliveries of F‑15EX fighter jets and other defense programs, prompting concerns from the U.S. Air Force and Congress. ^[43]

Although the commercial jet business drives most of Boeing’s growth story and backlog, defense disruptions can still impact cash flow, reputation and political relationships, all relevant to BA’s risk profile.

What Wall Street Thinks: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

Across the major data providers, analysts remain broadly positive on Boeing stock, albeit with wide disagreement on timing and risk.

Consensus Ratings

Recent aggregates show:

StockAnalysis.com: 18 analysts with a “Strong Buy” consensus; average price target $239.56 (roughly 18% upside from around $202). ^[44]
TipRanks: 16 analysts over the last 3 months; average target $249.07, high $285, low $150, implying around 23% upside from roughly $202. ^[45]
MarketBeat: 27+ analysts; average target about $232.09, with a high around $275 and low $140, suggesting roughly 15% upside from recent levels; MarketBeat labels the average rating as “Moderate Buy.” ^[46]

Despite minor differences, the message is consistent: Wall Street, on average, sees double‑digit upside over the next 12 months, but not without risk.

Institutional Flows and Ownership

Institutional investors continue to play a dominant role in BA:

Daiwa Securities Group recently boosted its holdings in Boeing by 5.5%, to nearly 195,000 shares worth about $40.8 million. ^[47]
Large asset managers such as Vanguard, Geode, Fisher and others collectively own a significant majority of outstanding shares; MarketBeat estimates institutional ownership around 65–75%. ^[48]

High institutional ownership cuts both ways: it can support liquidity and reduce volatility in normal times, but it also means BA’s fate is closely tied to large funds’ risk appetite.

Valuation Views: Is Boeing Stock Undervalued?

Fundamental and Discounted‑Cash‑Flow Takes

Several independent platforms argue that Boeing remains modestly undervalued relative to long‑term cash‑flow potential, assuming the turnaround succeeds:

A recent RoboForex analysis emphasizes that while Boeing’s order backlog and improving cash flow are positives, negative equity and high debt make the stock “more of a speculative recovery play than a stable blue chip” in the near term. ^[49]
Simply Wall St’s new narrative for BA (December 9, 2025) suggests a fair value around $245 per share, about 15–16% above the latest price of $206.27. That estimate assumes a sharp earnings recovery by 2028 and a future P/E of roughly 41×, higher than current sector averages. ^[50]

In other words, bullish valuation models bake in a lot of improvement: higher margins, a cleaner balance sheet and steady free cash flow in the second half of the decade.

Market Skepticism Remains

Not everyone is convinced:

Barron’s recently noted that BA shares fell even after major order wins at the Dubai Airshow, as investors questioned Boeing’s ability to convert a 6,000‑plus jet backlog into reliable free cash flow, especially with 777X deliveries now pushed to 2027 and beyond. ^[51]
Some research shops still highlight Boeing’s negative equity, high interest costs and lingering execution risk as reasons to demand a higher risk premium versus peers. ^[52]

So while the average target price sits comfortably above today’s share price, the spread between bullish and bearish scenarios is unusually wide.

Key Bull and Bear Drivers for BA Stock

Bull Case: Why Optimists Like Boeing in Late 2025

Massive Backlog & Strong Airline Cycle
Over 6,000 jets in backlog and IATA’s forecast for record airline profits in 2026 provide solid demand visibility for years. ^[53]
Order Momentum in High‑Value Widebodies
Emirates’ 65‑jet 777X order and Gulf Air’s 787 deal showcase strong demand for Boeing’s newest widebodies, despite delays. ^[54]
Improving Cash Flow Trajectory
Free cash flow turned slightly positive in Q2–Q3 and is projected by the CFO to move into low‑single‑digit billions in 2026, with a long‑run goal of $10 billion. ^[55]
Safety & Quality Investments Starting to Pay Off
FAA has allowed increased 737 MAX production and restored some inspection authority after Boeing’s updated Safety & Quality Plan and factory changes. ^[56]
Improving Relative Perception vs Airbus
IATA’s chief openly says confidence in Boeing’s deliveries has improved while Airbus faces its own fuselage and software issues, a reversal of recent years. ^[57]

Bear Case: Why Skeptics Stay Cautious

Heavy Debt and Negative Equity
With net debt around $30 billion and shareholders’ equity still negative, Boeing has limited room for error if the cycle turns or new issues emerge. ^[58]
Program Risk — Especially 777X
The $4.9 billion Q3 charge and another delay to 777X certification (now expected in 2027) underscore the risk of further cost overruns and schedule slips. ^[59]
Safety & Cultural Overhang
Even with new training and audits, Boeing’s reputation remains fragile after years of accidents, fines and investigations. Any new incident could trigger renewed regulatory and market backlash. ^[60]
Labor Tensions and Supply‑Chain Friction
The 2025 machinists’ strike and Spirit integration both introduce execution risk on the production side, especially for defense programs and complex structures. ^[61]
Execution‑Dependent Valuation
Many “fair value” models assume a big swing from deep losses to strong profitability, plus a premium multiple. If that recovery is slower or choppier than expected, today’s discount to target prices could evaporate quickly. ^[62]

What to Watch Next for Boeing Shareholders

For traders and long‑term investors following BA, the main catalysts heading into 2026 include:

Integration of Spirit AeroSystems
Whether quality metrics, schedule reliability and unit costs actually improve as Spirit is brought in‑house will be a crucial test of the acquisition rationale. ^[63]
Delivery Pace in Q4 2025 and 2026
Boeing needs strong December deliveries to hit internal and Street targets, and a further scale‑up in 2026 to support positive free cash flow guidance. ^[64]
777X Certification and Cash Profile
Investors will focus on whether 777X can enter service around 2027 without further major charges — and how quickly it moves from cash drain to cash generator. ^[65]
737 MAX 10 and Other Certifications
Timelines for certifying the MAX 10 and other variants will affect Boeing’s competitive position against the Airbus A321neo in the high‑capacity narrowbody market. ^[66]
Balance Sheet Strategy
As free cash flow (hopefully) turns positive, the sequence — debt reduction vs. shareholder returns vs. new programs — will be key to how the market values BA.

Bottom Line: A High‑Beta Turnaround That’s Finally Earning Back Some Trust

As of December 9, 2025, Boeing stock sits at an interesting crossroads:

The Spirit AeroSystems acquisition, improving delivery performance, and a more confident free‑cash‑flow outlook for 2026 all support the bull case.
At the same time, negative equity, heavy debt, the 777X overhang and a fragile safety culture keep Boeing squarely in the “turnaround, not yet fully turned” bucket.

Most analysts see double‑digit upside over the next 12 months, but that optimism is firmly contingent on Boeing executing its industrial, safety and financial reset without major new setbacks. ^[67]

For readers, this means BA is less a sleepy blue‑chip and more a high‑risk, high‑reward recovery play tied to the global aviation cycle and Boeing’s ability to finally make “safety and quality first” more than a slogan.