Since November 21, 2025, Boeing stock has been riding a wave of big headlines: blockbuster orders at the Dubai Airshow, a multibillion‑dollar defense win, a major acquisition to fix its supply chain, and a fresh promise from its new CFO that free cash flow will finally turn positive in 2026. At the same time, aircraft deliveries have stumbled, losses remain steep, and analysts are sharply divided on the pace of the turnaround.
Here’s a deep dive into what has happened to The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) since November 21, 2025, and what the latest news and forecasts suggest for Boeing stock going into 2026.
How Boeing Stock Has Traded Since November 21
On November 21, 2025, Boeing shares closed around $179.70, up a modest 0.18% on the day, as part of a broader rally in the industrials sector. [1]
From that baseline, the stock has had a notably volatile but generally upward ride:
- After drifting higher into late November, BA jumped more than 10% on December 2, closing near $205.38 after Boeing’s new CFO outlined a return to positive free cash flow in 2026 and higher 737 and 787 deliveries. [2]
- Since that spike, the stock has eased back. Recent quotes place Boeing around $199–$200 per share, roughly 10% above its November 21 level. [3]
- Despite this rally, BA remains well below its 2019 peak, and is up only in the low‑teens percentage range year‑to‑date, lagging rival Airbus, whose shares are up around 25% this year. [4]
So from a pure price-action view, November 21 marked a kind of “calm before the catalysts.” The subsequent jump into the $200 range reflects investors repricing Boeing based on several major developments.
Dubai Airshow 2025: The Order Book Gets a Big Boost
The Dubai Airshow 2025 (November 18–21) was arguably the biggest narrative driver around November 21, especially for long‑term Boeing bulls.
Emirates doubles down on the 777X
The standout headline was Emirates’ firm order for 65 Boeing 777‑9s, the largest single deal of the show and a huge vote of confidence in Boeing’s long‑delayed flagship widebody. [5]
Key details:
- Emirates added 65 more 777‑9s, bringing its total order for the 777X family to 270 aircraft, reinforcing the airline’s post‑A380 strategy and Boeing’s dominance in the very‑large twin‑engine segment. [6]
- Other widebody wins included 15 Boeing 787s for Gulf Air and additional commitments across Africa and the Middle East. [7]
Narrowbodies: Boeing wins contracts, Airbus wins headlines
An excellent breakdown from Aerospace Global News shows how the show unfolded: [8]
- Boeing walked away with about 175 total aircraft commitments, including 102 firm orders, far more firm contracts than Airbus secured.
- Boeing’s narrowbody wins included:
- 9 737 MAX 8s for Air Senegal
- 11 737 MAX 8s for Ethiopian Airlines
- A memorandum of understanding (MoU) for 75 additional 737 MAX jets from flydubai
- At the same time, flydubai signed a blockbuster MoU for 150 Airbus A321neos, signaling intensifying competition for Boeing in the Middle East single‑aisle market.
Analysts and commentators described Dubai as a turning point in sentiment: Boeing may not have “won” on total headline volume, but it clearly won on firm, bankable orders, particularly on the 777X. [9]
For Boeing stock, the Dubai Airshow helped reinforce a key part of the bull case: demand is not the problem. The backlog is real; the challenge is executing on production, certification, and profitability.
November Deliveries: Orders Are Up, But Execution Is Still Wobbly
Just as the Airshow optimism peaked, the hard reality of monthly deliveries came in.
According to Reuters, Boeing delivered 44 aircraft in November 2025, down from 53 in October—a 17% month‑over‑month decline and significantly behind Airbus, which delivered 72 jets. [10]
Breakdown of Boeing’s November deliveries:
- 32 Boeing 737 MAX
- 6 Boeing 787 (including two 787‑10s to TAAG Angola Airlines)
- 2 Boeing 777 freighters
- 4 Boeing 767
Orders, however, were strong:
- 164 gross orders, with 38 cancellations, for 126 net new orders
- These included 74 additional 777X jets (65 for Emirates and 9 for China Airlines), 30 787s, and 43 737 MAX aircraft ordered by undisclosed customers. [11]
- As of November 30, Boeing had delivered 537 jets in 2025 and held a backlog of 6,019 aircraft. [12]
The November report underlined the core tension in the Boeing stock story:
- Positives: Strong net orders and a massive backlog that should support years of production and cash flow.
- Negatives: The pace of actual deliveries remains choppy, limiting near‑term cash generation and keeping execution risk front and center.
Spirit AeroSystems Acquisition: Taking Back Control of the Supply Chain
Perhaps the most structurally important move for Boeing’s future was the long‑anticipated deal to buy back its key fuselage supplier, Spirit AeroSystems.
Deal structure and strategic rationale
On December 9, 2025, Boeing finalized its $4.7 billion acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems, a transaction valued at about $8.3 billion including debt. [13]
- Spirit builds 737 MAX fuselages and supplies major structures for several Boeing programs.
- Boeing spun off the Kansas‑based business in 2005; bringing it back in‑house reverses that outsourcing strategy.
- CEO Kelly Ortberg framed the deal as “pivotal” for Boeing’s future and its efforts to boost stability, quality, and safety across the production system. [14]
The acquisition comes after ongoing quality and safety concerns, including a January 2024 incident where a 737 MAX door plug blew out mid‑flight due to missing bolts—an accident that intensified scrutiny of Boeing’s manufacturing oversight. [15]
Regulatory conditions and financial trade‑offs
The deal did not come without strings:
- U.S. and European regulators required Boeing to divest Spirit operations that supply Airbus, with Airbus set to take over certain Spirit assets and another company acquiring a key facility in Malaysia. The aim is to prevent Boeing from gaining excessive leverage over its rival’s supply chain. [16]
- Credit analysts at S&P Global kept Boeing’s rating at BBB‑ but noted that higher production costs, customer concessions, and integration risks could drag on earnings in the early years. [17]
For shareholders, absorbing Spirit is a high‑stakes bet:
If Boeing can use the acquisition to improve quality, reduce rework, and stabilize delivery schedules, the payoff in cash flow and reputation could be substantial. If it stumbles, the company will have added debt and complexity without solving its core bottlenecks.
Defense and Government Contracts: A Strengthening Second Pillar
While headlines tend to focus on commercial jets, Boeing’s Defense, Space & Security segment continues to quietly pile up long‑term work.
$4.7 billion Apache deal for Poland
On November 26, 2025, Boeing secured a Foreign Military Sales (FMS) contract worth nearly $4.7 billion to build 96 AH‑64E Apache helicopters for Poland, the largest Apache order outside the U.S. to date. [18]
- Deliveries are expected to begin in 2028.
- Poland will become the 19th global operator of the Apache and will operate the largest fleet outside the United States. [19]
The Apache contract is part of more than $7 billion in total Pentagon awards to Boeing, including a separate $2.4 billion U.S. Air Force deal for production aircraft and related items. [20]
Deportation 737s: Small dollars, big optics
On December 10, 2025, The Guardian reported that the U.S. Department of Homeland Security signed a nearly $140 million contract with Daedalus Aviation to acquire six Boeing 737 aircraft for deportation flights. [21]
- Financially, this is tiny relative to Boeing’s commercial backlog.
- Politically and reputationally, however, the association with high‑profile immigration enforcement debates adds another layer of scrutiny to Boeing’s brand.
Taken together, recent defense wins plus recurring government and military work help diversify Boeing’s revenue, even as the commercial side dominates the equity story. [22]
Credit Outlook: From “Negative” Back to “Stable”
After years of pressure, one of the more quietly important developments came before November 21 but has shaped sentiment since:
On October 31, 2025, S&P Global Ratings revised Boeing’s outlook to “stable” from “negative” while affirming its BBB‑ credit rating. [23]
Key points from S&P and subsequent analysis:
- The stable outlook reflects expectations that production will continue to increase, supporting improved credit metrics in 2026 and beyond. [24]
- S&P now estimates Boeing’s 2026 free operating cash flow at about $3 billion, lower than previously forecast but still a meaningful improvement from recent years. [25]
- The agency still sees elevated leverage and execution risk, particularly around the delayed 777X program and ongoing customer concessions. [26]
For Boeing stock, this shift reduced the perceived risk of a downgrade to “junk” status, which had loomed over the company during the worst of the 737 MAX and pandemic crises. [27]
Q3 2025 Results: Revenue Rebound, Big Losses, Tiny Positive Cash Flow
Boeing’s third‑quarter 2025 earnings, reported on October 29, provide the numeric backdrop for all of this news flow.
According to Boeing’s own release and Zacks’ analysis: [28]
- Revenue:
- Q3 2025 revenue was $23.3 billion, up 30% year‑over‑year, driven by 160 commercial aircraft deliveries.
- Profitability:
- GAAP loss per share: –$7.14, narrower than the prior‑year loss of –$9.97.
- Core (non‑GAAP) loss per share: –$7.47, missing the Zacks consensus estimate by a wide margin (consensus was around –$3.68).
- Results included a pre‑tax charge of $4.9 billion on the 777X program, which alone added about $6.45 per share to the quarterly loss. [29]
- Cash flow and balance sheet:
- Operating cash flow: $1.1 billion
- Free cash flow (non‑GAAP): about $0.2 billion, Boeing’s first positive quarterly FCF in several years.
- Total backlog: $636 billion, including over 5,900 commercial airplanes.
- Cash and marketable securities: $23 billion vs. $53.4 billion in consolidated debt at quarter‑end. [30]
Analysts at Zacks subsequently highlighted that Boeing’s earnings miss was severe, even though revenues exceeded expectations, reinforcing the view that the company is still working through heavy costs and charges tied to the 777X and legacy issues. [31]
Management’s Forecast: 2026 Free Cash Flow and Delivery Ramp
The turning point for sentiment after November 21 came from Boeing’s new CFO, Jay Malave, speaking at the UBS Global Industrials and Transportation Conference on December 2.
What the CFO said
Across Reuters, Barron’s, and Investor’s Business Daily coverage, Malave’s message was consistent: [32]
- Boeing expects higher deliveries of both 737 and 787 jets in 2026, as stored aircraft are cleared and production improves.
- The company anticipates a cash outflow of around $2 billion in 2025, followed by a return to positive free cash flow in 2026, likely in the “low single‑digit billions”.
- Over the longer term, Boeing is still targeting around $10 billion in annual free cash flow once its recovery and production ramp are fully in place.
- Malave reiterated that 737 MAX production is stabilizing and that 600 deliveries in 2025 are plausible, though some on Wall Street expect closer to 700.
The market loved it:
- BA stock surged roughly 8–10% on December 2, leading the Dow and closing around $205, as investors recalibrated expectations for Boeing’s cash profile. [33]
Bloomberg’s compilation of analyst estimates suggests Wall Street currently models about $2.5–3 billion in free cash flow for 2026, broadly in line with this guidance but still below Boeing’s long‑term aspirations. [34]
Analyst Ratings and Price Targets: A Split Jury
Since November 21, multiple research notes and data aggregators have updated their views on Boeing.
Consensus: generally bullish, but with big outliers
From ValueInvesting.io, which aggregates 35 analyst forecasts: [35]
- Average 12‑month price target:$256.62, implying about 29% upside from a recent price near $198.72.
- Target range: $222.20 (low) to $299.25 (high).
- Consensus rating:“Buy”, with:
- 12 Strong Buy
- 17 Buy
- 6 Hold
- 0 Sell / Strong Sell
MarketBeat’s November 21 coverage of a hedge fund’s Boeing position paints a similar but slightly more cautious picture, citing an average target around $232 and a “Moderate Buy” rating, with a mix of strong‑buy, buy, hold, and a handful of sell ratings. [36]
Zacks: very skeptical
In sharp contrast, a Zacks Research note on November 21 cut its FY2025 EPS estimate to –$9.85 from –$5.04 and slapped Boeing with a “Strong Sell” rating after the Q3 earnings miss. [37]
More recent Zacks commentary is mixed:
- Some pieces highlight Boeing’s large backlog and argue that brokers’ average rating still supports a bullish stance, pointing to expected EPS growth of more than 50% in 2025 and over 100% in 2026 versus 2024. [38]
- Others emphasize near‑term volatility and warn that earnings estimate revisions have trended downward since the 777X charge. [39]
Valuation models: is BA still undervalued?
Independent valuation work has also intensified since late November:
- Simply Wall St estimates Boeing’s fair value at around $301 per share using a discounted cash flow model, implying roughly 34% upside from recent prices. They also note that BA trades at about 1.9x forward sales versus roughly 3.1x for the sector, yet still generates negative trailing free cash flow (around –$5.9 billion), with forecasts swinging to +$11.6 billion by 2029. [40]
- Technical and macro‑oriented analyses, such as Roboforex’s early‑December note, stress that while revenue is recovering and S&P has upgraded the outlook to stable, Boeing’s heavy reserves and charges (especially on the 777X) continue to pressure margins, which could cap the stock if execution slips. [41]
In short: the median analyst is bullish, but the spread between the most optimistic and most pessimistic views on Boeing’s earnings path remains wide.
Boeing vs. Airbus: Winning Orders, Chasing Deliveries
A recurring theme in late‑2025 coverage is how Boeing stacks up against Airbus.
According to Barron’s, 2025 marks the first year since 2021 that Boeing is expected to beat Airbus in net new jet orders, with roughly 1,000 orders for Boeing vs. about 800 for Airbus. [42]
But:
- Since 2020, Airbus has delivered around 4,900 jets vs. about 2,800 for Boeing, and generated roughly $18 billion in free cash flow, while Boeing has used about $20 billion in cash over the same period. [43]
- Airbus still expects to deliver more aircraft than Boeing in 2026 (roughly 900 vs. Boeing’s projected ~700), even after trimming its 2025 delivery targets due to its own industrial issues. [44]
For Boeing shareholders, that means:
- Order wins (like Dubai) are encouraging but not sufficient;
- The real valuation driver is whether Boeing can actually catch up on deliveries and cash flow without incurring fresh safety or quality crises.
Governance and Boardroom Moves
Since November 21, Boeing has also made a noteworthy board addition:
- On December 3, 2025, Boeing elected Bradley D. Tilden, former chairman, president, and CEO of Alaska Air Group, to its Board of Directors, assigning him to the Aerospace Safety and Finance committees. [45]
Tilden brings deep airline‑side experience and safety management expertise—skills that are directly relevant as Boeing attempts to prove that its safety culture and financial discipline are truly changing.
What November 21 Really Marked for Boeing Stock
So what does November 21, 2025 represent in this story?
- On the surface, it was just another trading day where BA closed around $180 with a minor gain. [46]
- In context, it was the end of a week dominated by:
- Dubai Airshow orders that reinforced confidence in Boeing’s long‑term demand picture. [47]
- An emerging narrative that Boeing might be turning the corner on orders, backlog, and market share, even as profitability lagged. [48]
- Fresh research notes like Zacks’ Strong Sell downgrade, reminding investors that the earnings path is still messy. [49]
From that day forward, the flow of news—from the Apache deal and S&P’s stable outlook, to the Spirit acquisition and CFO Malave’s cash‑flow roadmap—has effectively re‑priced Boeing from a stressed turnaround to a higher‑risk, higher‑upside recovery story.
Boeing Stock Outlook: Key Drivers and Risks for 2026
Bullish drivers
- Massive backlog and strong order momentum
- Free cash flow inflection in 2026
- Improved credit outlook and access to capital
- S&P’s move back to a stable BBB‑ outlook lowers the perceived risk of a downgrade and helps keep funding costs in check. [54]
- Valuation support
Bearish risks
- Execution and production reliability
- 777X and certification risk
- The $4.9 billion 777X charge and a delayed first delivery to 2027 underscore how fragile program economics still are. [59]
- High debt and thin margins
- With $53+ billion in debt and only recently positive free cash flow, Boeing has limited margin for new shocks. [60]
- Competitive pressure from Airbus
- Airbus’ A321neo family continues to dominate the high‑capacity narrowbody market, pressuring Boeing to move faster on the 737‑10 and consider a new mid‑market jet. [61]
- Regulatory and reputational overhang
- Ongoing scrutiny following the 737 MAX crashes and later quality incidents (such as the 2024 door‑plug blowout) means no room for error on safety. [62]
What Investors Should Watch Next
For readers following Boeing stock after November 21, 2025, a few metrics and milestones will matter most into 2026:
- Monthly and quarterly deliveries, especially:
- 737 MAX output and deliveries
- 787 ramp and any quality-related pauses
- 777X and 737‑10 certification timelines, and whether further charges emerge. [63]
- Spirit AeroSystems integration progress, including any new disclosures on costs, synergies, or regulatory conditions. [64]
- Free cash flow actuals vs. guidance, as 2025 closes and 2026 begins. [65]
- Credit rating commentary from S&P and others, which will signal how comfortable creditors are with Boeing’s leverage and recovery path. [66]
Final Word (and a Necessary Disclaimer)
Boeing’s story since November 21, 2025 has been one of rising expectations:
- Strong orders (Dubai Airshow, Apache deal),
- A long‑awaited consolidation of its key supplier (Spirit AeroSystems), and
- A clear management roadmap for returning to positive free cash flow in 2026.
At the same time, the company still faces heavy losses, high debt, production volatility, and intense regulatory and competitive pressure. That’s why analysts’ price targets span such a wide range and why ratings run the gamut from “Strong Sell” to “Strong Buy.”
References
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