As U.S. markets get ready to reopen on Monday, December 1, 2025, Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock (NASDAQ: BKNG) heads into the new week at a critical juncture: fundamentals look very strong, analyst targets imply double‑digit upside, but the share price is still lagging both its own highs and the broader market.
At Friday’s close on November 28, BKNG was trading around $4,900–$4,920 per share, with after‑hours data showing only a small dip to roughly $4,909. [1] That leaves the stock about 16% below its 52‑week high near $5,839, despite a recent rally in late November. [2]
The last three days of November (28–30) have been packed with fresh valuation pieces, analyst commentary and a flurry of institutional ownership headlines that will help frame sentiment when the bell rings on Monday. Here’s what investors need to know.
1. Where BKNG Stock Stands Heading Into December 1
Several late‑November sources give a consistent snapshot of Booking’s current profile:
- Price & range:
- Size & valuation:
- Market cap: about $150–160 billion. TS2 Tech+1
- Trailing P/E: ~31–32x earnings. [5]
- PEG ratio: around 1.6, suggesting earnings growth roughly matches its valuation multiple. TS2 Tech+1
- Dividend profile:
- Share price performance:
- Ownership & liquidity:
- Around 92–96% of shares are in institutional hands, according to MarketBeat and institutional‑flow data highlighted by TechStock². TS2 Tech+2MarketBeat+2
- Short interest is modest, at roughly 1.8% of shares outstanding. TS2 Tech
In other words, Booking looks like a classic large‑cap compounder: high institutional ownership, strong earnings, moderate dividend, and a valuation that’s rich vs. its sector but not crazy versus its own growth.
2. Q3 2025: A Big Beat and Upgraded Guidance
A lot of the late‑November commentary still pivots around Booking’s Q3 2025 report, released on October 28:
- Headline results:
- Revenue: about $9.01 billion, up ~12.7% year‑on‑year and ahead of Wall Street estimates. [9]
- Gross bookings: around $49.7 billion, up 14% vs. last year. TS2 Tech+1
- Adjusted EPS: roughly $99.50, beating consensus by about 3–4% and growing ~18–19% year‑on‑year. [10]
- Room nights: about 323 million, up 8.2% vs. Q3 2024. TS2 Tech+1
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: near 47%, expanding by more than one percentage point year‑on‑year as marketing efficiency improved. TS2 Tech+1
Analysts and data providers note that Booking also raised its cost‑savings target to $500–550 million, showing management is still pushing operating leverage even while investing aggressively in AI and product innovation. TS2 Tech+1
Guidance Still Looks Robust
Zacks’ post‑earnings breakdown, republished by Nasdaq on November 27, and the TechStock² recap on November 30 both highlight bullish guidance: [11]
- Q4 2025 guidance:
- Room nights: +4–6%
- Gross bookings: +11–13%
- Revenue: +10–12%
- Adjusted EBITDA: $2.0–2.1 billion (mid‑teens growth)
- Full‑year 2025 guidance:
- Room nights: ~+7%
- Gross bookings: +11–12%
- Revenue: ~+12%
- Adjusted EBITDA: +17–18%, with margin expansion of about 180 basis points year‑on‑year
Despite those numbers, BKNG traded lower in the weeks after earnings as markets digested macro risks, AI‑driven competition and valuation concerns, setting the stage for the valuation and ownership debates we’ve seen since November 28. TS2 Tech+1
3. November 28–30: What the New Wave of Analysis Says
November 28: Mixed Institutional Trims, Still Very High Ownership
On November 28, several MarketBeat “instant alert” stories based on Q2 13F filings focused on institutions trimming but not abandoning BKNG:
- Choreo LLC cut its stake by 8.2%, ending Q2 with 1,266 shares worth about $7.33 million. [12]
- Korea Investment CORP reduced its BKNG position by 6.8% to 32,545 shares (about $188.4 million, roughly 0.10% of the company). [13]
Those pieces reiterate that:
- Institutional investors collectively own about 92.4% of the stock,
- Insiders have sold about 3,452 shares (~$18 million) over the past three months, leaving insider ownership at just 0.16%, and
- Street consensus remains “Moderate Buy” with an average price target around $6,141.52 and a quarterly dividend of $9.60. [14]
This paints a picture of portfolio rebalancing rather than a broad institutional exit.
November 29: Sovereign Wealth Fund Buying and Valuation Debates
November 29 brought a mix of big‑ticket buying and sharp valuation commentary:
- Norges Bank takes a 1.18% stake
- Colonial Trust slashes its position
- BofA upgrade framed as an “AI‑related buying opportunity”
A widely circulated TalkMarkets summary of “Wall Street’s Top 10 Stock Calls” for the week of Nov. 24–28 noted that Bank of America upgraded BKNG to Buy from Neutral with a $6,000 price target, arguing that market fears about AI‑driven disintermediation by Google and OpenAI are “overdone” and that the AI‑driven selloff created a buying opportunity. [19] - Simply Wall St: BKNG looks undervalued despite a rich P/E
Two Simply Wall St pieces dug into valuation:- Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis – Nov. 27
- Fair value estimate: $7,650.59 per share, about 35.8% above the current price, leading to an “UNDERVALUE” conclusion. [20]
- Current P/E: 31.4x, vs 21.4x for the U.S. hospitality industry and 29x for peers, but below an internally calculated “fair” P/E of 37.1x, implying upside is still justified by growth. [21]
- Narrative fair value article – Nov. 29
- A widely followed fair‑value “narrative” pegs BKNG at $6,207 per share, above the last close around $4,914.69, suggesting low‑to‑mid‑20s percent upside. [22]
- It notes that while one‑year total shareholder return is negative (~–4.8%), three‑year TSR sits around 139%, underscoring longer‑term wealth creation. [23]
- Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis – Nov. 27
Combined, the November 29 coverage cast BKNG as a high‑quality franchise that may still be undervalued on DCF and “fair P/E” metrics, even though its headline multiple already sits above sector averages.
November 30: Big‑Picture Stock Story and More Fund Moves
On November 30, the news flow shifted from raw 13F data to synthesised stock narratives, plus another wave of institutional headlines.
TechStock² “state of the stock” feature (Nov. 30)
A long TechStock² article titled “Booking Holdings (BKNG) Stock on November 30, 2025: Analyst Upgrades, AI Deals and Big‑Money Buying Shape the Outlook” pulls together much of the current story: TS2 Tech+1
- Performance vs benchmarks:
- BKNG has underperformed the S&P 500 in 2025, down mid‑single to high‑single digits depending on timeframe, while the index is up double‑digits.
- It has still slightly outperformed a travel‑tech ETF peer group (AWAY).
- Valuation snapshot:
- P/E: ~32x
- PEG: about 1.6
- Dividend yield: ~0.8%
- Institutional ownership: around 96%; short interest about 1.8%. TS2 Tech+1
- Street view:
- Around 38 analysts cover BKNG, with a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating.
- Average 12‑month price target: roughly $6,174, about 35% above recent levels, with a Street‑high target near $7,447. TS2 Tech+2MarketBeat+2
- Key upgrade – Wedbush:
- Wedbush upgraded BKNG in mid‑November (Hold → Buy/Outperform) with a $6,000 target, calling Booking the “best‑positioned online travel agency globally” and pointing to strong Q3 metrics and free‑cash‑flow generation. TS2 Tech+1
The same article also threads in AI initiatives, macro travel trends and competitive risks (more on those below), concluding that BKNG is fundamentally strong and strategically active, but not priced like the market’s favourite AI names.
November 30 MarketBeat fund‑flow headlines
MarketBeat published several more 13F‑driven pieces on November 30, showing both new buying and profit‑taking:
- West Family Investments Inc.
- Boosted its stake by 75% in Q2 to 161 shares (worth about $932,000).
- The write‑up reiterated the Q3 beat, EPS $99.50 vs $95.56 expected, and revenue of $9.01B, along with the dividend and consensus “Moderate Buy” rating. [24]
- Giverny Capital Inc.
- Lifted its BKNG stake by 0.7% to 21,290 shares, about $123.3 million and 0.07% of Booking, making BKNG 4.2% of Giverny’s portfolio and its 8th‑largest position. [25]
- Groupama Asset Managment
- Increased its stake by 24.8% to 645 shares, valued at about $3.67 million; the article again cited 92.42% institutional ownership, the Q3 beat and the $6,141.52 average price target. [26]
- Virtue Capital Management LLC
- Cut its BKNG stake by 49.5%, leaving 100 shares worth roughly $579,000.
- The piece repeated that insiders have sold 3,452 shares (~$18 million) in the last three months and that institutions own about 92.4% of the float. [27]
Taken together with the Nov. 28–29 filings, late November shows a very actively traded institutional shareholder base — sovereign wealth funds and long‑only managers adding shares, while some firms trim or rebalance.
QuiverQuant: Analyst Targets, Insider Selling and Hedge Fund Activity
A November 24 QuiverQuant update, still widely cited at month‑end, highlights: [28]
- Recent analyst price targets:
- $6,250 (BTIG, Strong Buy, Nov. 24)
- $6,000 (BofA Securities, upgrade to Strong Buy/Buy, Nov. 24)
- $6,000 (Wedbush, upgrade on Nov. 13)
- $5,550 (Cantor Fitzgerald, Neutral, Oct. 29)
- $6,806 (UBS, Strong Buy, Oct. 29)
- $6,400 (Benchmark, Strong Buy, Oct. 29)
- $5,810 (Truist, Oct. 29)
- Median 6‑month price target: about $6,150.
- Insiders:245 open‑market sales and zero open‑market purchases over the last six months, including large sales by CEO Glenn Fogel and other executives.
- Funds:851 institutions added BKNG while 860 reduced positions in the latest quarter, underscoring just how heavily traded the name is among professional investors.
4. Forecasts: From Wall Street Models to Quant Screens
Beyond individual articles, several late‑November forecast pages give a numerical sense of where BKNG might be heading.
Consensus Price Targets
- MarketBeat (as of Nov. 28):
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” based on 35 analysts (27 Buy / 8 Hold / 1 Strong Buy).
- Average 12‑month target:$6,141.52, about 25% above the current price.
- Target range: $5,433–$6,806. [29]
- StockAnalysis.com:
- Lists a price target around $6,103.86, implying ~24% upside, and classifies BKNG as a “Buy”. [30]
- Barchart / TechStock² summary:
- Average analyst target roughly $6,174, with a Street‑high estimate near $7,447, implying upside potential north of 60% in the most bullish scenarios. TS2 Tech
Across these sources, most mainstream forecasts cluster in the low‑$6,000s, roughly 24–35% above Friday’s close, with a spread of higher “blue sky” targets.
Revenue and EPS Projections
StockAnalysis’ aggregated forecasts (based on Finnhub data) point to strong double‑digit earnings growth: [31]
- Revenue:
- 2024 (actual): $23.74B
- 2025 forecast:$27.18B (+14.5%)
- 2026 forecast:$29.62B (+9.0%)
- EPS (GAAP / blended):
- 2024: $172.69
- 2025 forecast:$230.42 (+33.4%)
- 2026 forecast:$269.41 (+16.9%)
In simple terms, many analysts are modelling mid‑teens revenue growth and 30%+ EPS growth in 2025, followed by high‑single to mid‑teens growth in 2026.
Quant / Technical Forecasts
Technical‑driven site CoinCodex, updated November 30, projects BKNG will: [32]
- Rise about 12.8% to $5,541.56 by December 30, 2025,
- While near‑term indicators still show “bearish” sentiment, a Fear & Greed Index reading of 39 (Fear), and only 15 green days in the last 30 trading sessions, with ~3.2% volatility.
These quant models are more short‑term and technical than the fundamental Street targets, but they point in the same general direction: upside with volatility and some lingering caution.
5. AI, Product News and Strategic Moves Inside the Booking Ecosystem
Late‑November analysis also paid a lot of attention to product and AI updates across Booking’s brands, which matter for the long‑term thesis:
- OpenTable + VOICEplug AI (Nov. 24)
- OpenTable announced a global integration with VOICEplug AI, enabling restaurants in 20 countries to automate phone‑based reservations, waitlists and cancellations using multilingual voice AI that syncs directly with OpenTable’s real‑time availability. TS2 Tech
- KAYAK 2025 Holiday Travel Forecast + AI Mode (Nov. 21)
- Holiday travel searches: up ~10% year‑on‑year.
- Airfares: International down ~7%, U.S. domestic down ~1%.
- Rental cars: ~6% cheaper; hotel rates roughly flat to modestly higher.
- KAYAK also launched “AI Mode”, a conversational planning tool that builds trips from natural‑language prompts. TS2 Tech
- OpenTable 2026 Dining Trends & “Concierge” AI
- Seated dining: up ~8% in 2025; Americans expect to dine out 10 times per month on average in 2026.
- Usage of “Notify Me” up 84%; experiential dining up 46%.
- New “Concierge” generative‑AI assistant to help diners discover and book across 60,000 restaurants; survey data suggests 44% of Americans plan to use AI more to find and book restaurants in 2026. TS2 Tech
- Rocket Travel by Agoda + WestJet Hotels (Nov. 13)
- Rocket Travel (Booking’s B2B arm) launched WestJet Hotels, giving WestJet customers access to 500,000+ hotels globally and integrating Booking’s inventory into the airline’s loyalty and booking ecosystem. TS2 Tech
- Leadership change at Priceline (effective Jan. 1, 2026)
- Booking announced that Brigit Zimmerman will become CEO of Priceline from January 1, 2026, succeeding Brett Keller, who will serve as Special Advisor until May 1, 2026. Management characterised this as a planned, internal succession. TS2 Tech
- Upcoming catalyst: Nasdaq 53rd Investor Conference (Dec. 9, 2025)
- CFO Ewout Steenbergen is scheduled to present at the Nasdaq 53rd Investor Conference in London on December 9, with a webcast available via Booking’s IR site. Markets will listen for updated commentary on holiday booking trends, AI investments, and competitive dynamics. TS2 Tech+1
These items feed into the bullish long‑term narrative: Booking isn’t just surviving AI; it’s actively using AI and B2B partnerships to deepen its moat.
6. Risks: Google, Macro Headwinds and Heavy Insider Selling
The late‑November coverage is not all rosy, and there are several clear risk flags heading into December:
- Google & AI competition:
- A late‑November Yahoo Finance report, summarised in TechStock², noted a ~5.5% drop in BKNG shares on November 22 after Google announced a broader rollout of its AI‑driven travel‑booking tools, rekindling fears that AI assistants embedded in search could cut into online travel agencies’ traffic. TS2 Tech+1
- Macro & geopolitics:
- Reuters and Zacks both highlight management’s own warnings about economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks that could weigh on travel demand, even as current metrics remain strong. [33]
- Cost pressures:
- Q3 saw rising cloud and personnel costs and slightly higher sales & other expenses as a share of gross bookings, though marketing efficiency improved enough to offset this in margins. [34]
- Valuation & insider selling:
- A P/E in the low‑30s is above industry norms, and Simply Wall St explicitly notes that Booking trades at a premium to hospitality peers, even if its growth arguably justifies a higher “fair” multiple. [35]
- QuiverQuant’s data showing hundreds of insider sale transactions and no open‑market purchases in the last six months feeds a cautious narrative that insiders are more eager to monetise options than to buy stock at current levels. [36]
Together, these factors explain why BKNG hasn’t fully “re‑rated” to a high‑growth multiple despite standout earnings.
7. What to Watch at the December 1, 2025 Market Open
Going into Monday’s session, investors and traders watching Booking Holdings may focus on:
- Reaction to the late‑November institutional flow stories
- With Norges Bank and other long‑term investors increasing stakes, and others trimming, Monday’s tape will show whether the marginal buyer is still institutional — or if retail and short‑term traders take over the story. [37]
- Follow‑through from analyst upgrades and fair‑value work
- Street and independent models roughly converge on mid‑20s to mid‑30s percentage upside from current levels, with some DCF‑style work pointing even higher. Whether the market starts to price in more of that upside could show up quickly in gap moves or strong volume near the open. [38]
- Positioning ahead of the December 5 ex‑dividend date
- The upcoming $9.60 quarterly dividend and December 5 ex‑div may attract short‑term dividend‑capture strategies and income‑focused buyers. [39]
- Macro and sector moves
- Holiday‑travel trends (KAYAK forecasts) and restaurant demand (OpenTable data) both look solid, which should theoretically support Booking, but any macro shocks or another big tech‑driven headline from Google could again overshadow fundamentals. TS2 Tech+1
- Technical levels and sentiment
- With BKNG still double‑digit percentage points below its 52‑week high, and technical sites like CoinCodex labelling near‑term sentiment as bearish despite a positive one‑month price projection, the stock may be sensitive to breakouts above recent resistance or dips toward the $4,800 area. [40]
8. Bottom Line: Strong Fundamentals, Active Debate
Putting all the late‑November pieces together, Booking Holdings heads into the December 1, 2025 market open with:
- Robust fundamentals (double‑digit growth in revenue, bookings and EPS, expanding margins, and upgraded guidance), [41]
- Mostly bullish analyst coverage and consensus targets 20–35% above current levels, [42]
- Very high institutional ownership with recent signs of both large new buyers and active profit‑taking, [43]
- Ambitious AI and product initiatives across KAYAK, OpenTable and Agoda that align with its “connected trip” strategy, TS2 Tech+1
- And real but manageable risks: AI‑enabled competition from platforms like Google, macro‑sensitive travel demand, elevated valuation multiples and sustained insider selling. TS2 Tech+2Simply Wall St+2
For investors watching the stock before Monday’s bell, the key question is whether the market continues to price BKNG as a “good but not special” large‑cap, or starts to close the gap between its earnings power and the higher fair‑value estimates now circulating from both Wall Street and independent analysts.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a substitute for personalized financial guidance. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.
References
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