London, Jan 30, 2026, 08:43 GMT — Regular session
- BP shares were down about 1.2% early Friday in London trade.
- Oil prices eased after a sharp jump a day earlier on Middle East risk.
- Investors are watching BP’s buyback activity and upcoming earnings guidance.
BP shares slipped 1.2% to 457.0 pence by 0843 GMT, down 5.65 pence from Thursday’s close. 1
Crude prices pulled back after Thursday’s surge, taking some air out of the sector. Brent fell $1.10 to $69.61 a barrel by 0707 GMT, while U.S. WTI dropped $1.25 to $64.17, after both gained about 3.4% in the prior session as traders priced in Middle East supply risks. “Prices eased after last night’s rally as the market reassessed geopolitical risks in the Middle East,” LSEG senior analyst Anh Pham said, after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled he planned to speak with Iran’s leaders. 2
BP has also been in focus after Trinidad and Tobago’s energy minister said BP and Shell were seeking U.S. licenses to develop gas fields linked to Venezuela, where U.S. sanctions still shape what international companies can do. BP is seeking a license for the Cocuina-Manakin field, he said, tied to an offshore area with about 1 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves. 3
A company announcement on Thursday showed BP bought 2,791,510 ordinary shares as part of its ongoing buyback programme. The filing listed a volume-weighted average price around 463.6 pence — an average that weights each trade by size — and said the shares would be transferred into treasury. 4
Investors are now looking past day-to-day oil swings to BP’s February results and any signal on cash returns. “I don’t expect any changes to dividend or buyback plans for 2026, but their guidance around these areas will be important to hear,” said Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower Advisors. Analysts polled by the company expect BP’s underlying replacement cost profit — its preferred measure of net profit — to come in at $1.55 billion. 5
The stock closed up 1.45% on Thursday at £4.63, outpacing a 0.17% rise in the FTSE 100, MarketWatch data showed. 6
But the near-term risk cuts both ways. Citi said the geopolitical risk premium in oil markets was running at about $7 to $10 a barrel with Brent near $70, and it put a 70% probability on limited U.S.-Israel action against Iran — alongside a 10% risk of substantial regional supply losses. Either outcome can jolt crude and, by extension, BP’s cash-flow expectations. 7
Next up for BP traders is Feb. 10, when the company is due to publish its fourth-quarter earnings. The focus will be on any change in dividend and buyback tone — and whether geopolitics stays hot enough to keep oil from sliding into the new week. 8
