BP is ending 2025 with a flurry of headlines that tell a very mixed story.
As of 10 December 2025, the company is:
- Promoting “2025: a year of progress” in a glossy corporate review, highlighting strong upstream performance and exploration success. [1]
- Confirming a new cash dividend of 6.2394 pence per share for Q3, payable on 19 December 2025. [2]
- Facing a backlash in the UK after deciding to scrap paid rest breaks and most bank holiday bonuses for thousands of petrol station workers, even as it touts its Living Wage accreditation. [3]
- Completing the sale of its US onshore wind business to LS Power while reassuring partners in Oman that it remains committed to the Hyport Duqm green hydrogen project. [4]
Put together, BP’s “year of progress” looks less like a simple success story and more like a snapshot of the messy, uneven energy transition – with investors, workers, and climate campaigners all pulling in different directions.
BP calls 2025 a “year of progress” – strong operations and big discoveries
BP’s own year-in-review piece, “2025: a year of progress”, published today on its Energy in focus hub, casts the year as one of solid execution and strategic delivery “from our oil and gas platforms out in the ocean to the fuel pumps on our retail sites.” [5]
From public snippets and related company material, several themes stand out:
- Exceptional exploration success
BP says 2025 has been an especially strong year for exploration, with 12 discoveries announced. Among them is Bumerangue in Brazil, described as BP’s largest exploration find in the country so far, underlining its continued appetite for new oil and gas resources even as it talks about transition. [6] - High upstream reliability and rising production
Across its upstream portfolio, BP reports plant reliability of around 97%, a figure also highlighted in its third‑quarter 2025 results summary. [7]
Those same Q3 updates pointed to oil and gas production up roughly 3% quarter‑on‑quarter for a second consecutive quarter, signalling that BP is leaning heavily into its hydrocarbon engine to generate cash. - Tightly linked to its Energy Outlook 2025
The year‑end review sits against the backdrop of BP’s Energy Outlook 2025, which uses two scenarios – “Current Trajectory” and “Below 2°” – to explore how fast the world might decarbonise. [8]
The Outlook is blunt: on current trends, oil and gas remain central to the global energy mix for decades, and the world looks set to miss its 2050 net‑zero target. BP now expects oil demand in 2050 to be around 83 million barrels a day, about 8% higher than its previous forecast, with gas use also revised up. [9]
That combination – record exploration, high operational uptime and a long‑lived role for hydrocarbons – underpins BP’s narrative that it is delivering “energy security today” while gradually reshaping for a lower‑carbon future.
Critics, especially climate groups, see something else: a company rowing back from earlier green ambitions and betting on fossil fuels staying profitable far into mid‑century.
BP 2025 dividend: 6.2394p per share payable on 19 December
For shareholders, the headline this week is firmly financial.
According to a company press release summarised by Investing.com, BP will pay a cash dividend of 6.2394 pence per ordinary share for the third quarter of 2025, with payment due on 19 December 2025. [10]
Key details:
- The sterling amount was set using an average FX rate of £1 = US$1.33346 over three trading days (3–5 December).
- The dividend was originally declared on 4 November as US$0.0832 per ordinary share, equivalent to US$0.4992 per American Depositary Share (ADS). [11]
- Shareholders on the register as of 14 November 2025 will receive the payment. Ordinary shareholders will be paid in sterling, while ADS holders receive dollars. [12]
- BP is not offering a scrip alternative this quarter, although dividend reinvestment plans remain available through most brokers. [13]
Third‑party dividend trackers note that, across 2025, BP’s interim dividends have been in the 8–8.32 US‑cent per share range, implying a high single‑digit dividend yield at current prices on the London market. [14]
Investor‑focused sites are quick to highlight that combination of robust cash returns and still‑modest valuation. One recent article flagged forecast annual earnings growth near 28%, a roughly 6.3% dividend yield and a suggestion that the shares remain materially undervalued, while others speculate that – under optimistic oil price scenarios – BP’s share price could double over the next five years or even surge 88% in 2026. [15]
That bullish commentary is not universal: London Stock Exchange chat data points to a consensus “Hold” rating, reflecting a market that sees BP as neither a screaming buy nor an obvious sell at current levels. [16]
Still, the 6.2394p payout, coming just before Christmas, reinforces BP’s message to investors: whatever happens with the energy transition, cash is flowing and shareholders are being paid.
Standard note: this article is for information only and does not constitute investment advice.
Forecourt staff pay row: paid breaks and most bank holiday premiums scrapped
If the dividend is a feel‑good story for investors, the picture on the frontline of BP’s UK retail business is far more contentious.
A Guardian investigation revealed that BP plans to end paid rest breaks and most bank holiday premium pay for around 5,400 workers across its 310 company‑owned petrol forecourts from February 2026. [17]
Here’s what’s changing:
- BP is an accredited member of the Living Wage Foundation and has committed to paying at least its independently calculated “real living wage”. Under the new structure, minimum hourly pay will rise from £12.60 to £13.45 – a 6.7% increase in line with the Foundation’s latest rate. [18]
- To offset this higher hourly rate, BP will:
- Stop paying for rest breaks during shifts at its company‑run sites.
- Cut premium pay on bank holidays, keeping premium rates for only a smaller number of national holidays. [19]
According to figures shared with The Guardian, one worker estimated that these changes could reduce overall take‑home pay by at least 6.25%, effectively cancelling out most of the nominal wage rise. An example calculation showed that an eight‑hour shift including a half‑hour break would pay barely more – about £100.87 versus £100.80 – under the new system, despite the higher hourly headline. [20]
BP’s position:
- The company says it “regularly reviews pay and benefits to stay fair and competitive” and that the new structure is aligned with the wider UK retail industry.
- It emphasises that the increased hourly rate will be brought forward by two months, arriving in early February rather than April, to “help support colleagues” during a cost‑of‑living squeeze. [21]
Critics, including staff and the Trades Union Congress (TUC), argue that:
- BP is effectively implementing a “stealth pay cut” while presenting the Living Wage increase as a new benefit it was already obliged to offer as a Living Wage employer since 2020. [22]
- Employees may be pushed to accept unfavourable contractual changes without fully understanding their rights or receiving compensation for the loss of previously contractual benefits such as paid breaks and bank‑holiday premiums. [23]
Under UK law, workers are entitled to a 20‑minute uninterrupted rest break if they work more than six hours, but there is no legal requirement that the break be paid. Many retailers – including Asda, Morrisons and Sainsbury’s – have already scrapped paid breaks to offset rising wage and labour costs. [24]
That legal nuance doesn’t remove the optics problem: BP is enjoying strong cash flows, boosting dividends and celebrating a “year of progress”, while thousands of relatively low‑paid staff face losing paid downtime and enhanced holiday pay.
BP sells US onshore wind, but stays in Omani hydrogen project
The other big strategic news around 10 December 2025 concerns BP’s portfolio reshaping.
LS Power completes acquisition of BP’s US onshore wind business
On 9 December 2025, LS Power announced it had completed the acquisition of BP’s US onshore wind business, BP Wind Energy North America Inc. [25]
Key facts from LS Power’s statement:
- The deal adds roughly 1,300 MW of net operating onshore wind capacity across 10 projects in states including Indiana, Kansas, South Dakota, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Hawaii and Idaho. [26]
- The assets will be integrated into Clearlight Energy, LS Power’s renewables platform, which now manages about 4,300 MW of wind, solar and battery storage in North America. [27]
- Post‑transaction, LS Power operates more than 22,300 MW of generation capacity and over 780 miles of high‑voltage transmission lines, underscoring its “more of everything” approach to meeting rising US power demand. [28]
- BP originally announced the sale back in July 2025, saying the wind portfolio would be divested to LS Power as part of a broader focus on core businesses. [29]
For BP, the sale is consistent with a strategy outlined earlier this year: raise about $20 billion through asset disposals, simplify the portfolio and free up capital to reduce debt and invest where the company sees better returns. [30]
BP still “on board” Hyport Duqm green hydrogen project in Oman
At the same time, there has been confusion over BP’s role in green hydrogen projects in Oman.
In 2025, BP cancelled or exited at least one hydrogen venture in the country, part of a wider wave of more than 60 low‑carbon hydrogen projects globally being paused or scrapped by major oil and gas firms, according to recent analysis. [31]
However, Hydrogen Oman (Hydrom) has moved to clarify that BP remains a key player in Hyport Duqm, a flagship green hydrogen project in the Sultanate:
- A Hydrom‑linked news update on 10 December 2025 confirmed that BP is “still on board” the Hyport Duqm project, despite exiting another Omani hydrogen venture. [32]
- Hydrom’s own social media posts reiterate that BP is a “committed partner in Oman’s energy transition” and that Hyport Duqm – initially announced in 2024 with BP taking a 49% stake and operator role – remains part of the country’s long‑term hydrogen strategy. [33]
In short, BP is reducing some exposure to early‑stage green projects where costs and policy uncertainty are high, while doubling down on a smaller number of flagship ventures like Hyport Duqm and freeing up cash through sales like the US onshore wind deal.
Industry context: retreat from aggressive green targets
BP’s moves don’t exist in a vacuum.
Across the sector, 2025 has seen a notable pullback from previously ambitious low‑carbon spending plans:
- A Financial Times report this week found that nearly 60 major low‑carbon hydrogen projects have been cancelled or paused, including those led by BP and ExxonMobil, as companies grapple with high costs, weak demand and wavering policy support. [34]
- A separate piece from The Times notes that ExxonMobil is cutting its planned low‑carbon spending by a third, while BP has scaled back investment in EV charging, biogas and hydrogen, and Shell has relaxed some of its own green targets. [35]
- Earlier this year, Reuters reported that BP would boost annual oil and gas spending to about $10 billion, while cutting annual transition spending by more than $5 billion, in a bid to rebuild investor confidence after a perceived “over‑pivot” to renewables. [36]
Overlay this with BP’s Energy Outlook 2025, which forecasts higher long‑term oil and gas demand and a likely failure to reach global net zero by 2050, and the picture is consistent:
BP is re‑centering its strategy on hydrocarbons, even as it cherry‑picks select low‑carbon bets.
Investors vs. stakeholders: two very different “progress” stories
Seen through a shareholder lens, 2025 looks like a strong year:
- Production up and upstream reliability at 97%. [37]
- A steady flow of buy‑backs and a new 6.2394p dividend on the way. [38]
- Asset sales (like the US wind portfolio) helping fund debt reduction and higher oil & gas investment, which many analysts view as more profitable in the near term. [39]
- City commentators speculating about double‑digit upside for the share price in 2026 and beyond. [40]
But for other stakeholders, the narrative is far more ambiguous:
- Forecourt staff face losing paid breaks and bank‑holiday premiums at a time when UK workers are still dealing with a “cost‑of‑living hangover”. The TUC has labelled the move “the worst possible time” for a stealth cut to benefits. [41]
- Climate advocates argue that BP’s higher 2050 oil and gas demand forecasts and reduced transition spending show that the company’s net‑zero rhetoric is drifting further from the pathway required to limit warming to 1.5–2°C. [42]
That clash – between investor‑friendly cash strategies and social & environmental expectations – is likely to define BP’s reputation through 2026.
What to watch next for BP in 2026
Looking ahead from 10 December 2025, several milestones will be important for anyone following BP:
- 19 December 2025 dividend payment
Confirmation of the Q3 dividend and any commentary around future payout policy will be closely watched, especially if oil prices become more volatile. - Implementation of UK retail pay changes (February 2026)
Employee reactions, potential legal challenges or union campaigns could influence BP’s brand in its home market – and test how far other retailers follow similar playbooks on paid breaks. [43] - Progress at Hyport Duqm and other low‑carbon projects
Any new investment decisions or partnerships in Oman will signal whether BP sees green hydrogen as a niche side bet or a serious growth platform. [44] - How BP responds to its own Energy Outlook 2025
Investors, regulators and campaigners will be looking for concrete steps that narrow the gap between BP’s “Current Trajectory” scenario and a Below‑2°C pathway – or evidence that BP is effectively positioning itself for a slower transition and higher fossil demand. [45] - Shareholder pressure at the 2026 AGM
After a stormy AGM in 2025, where investors rebelled against aspects of BP’s climate strategy U‑turn, climate resolutions and executive pay packages will again be barometers of how much latitude the company’s leadership still has. [46]
Whether 2025 ultimately goes down as a “year of progress” for BP will depend on where you sit.
For now, the company has delivered strong financials and a generous dividend – but at the cost of intensified scrutiny over how that progress is shared between shareholders, workers and the planet.
References
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