SAO PAULO, August 5, 2026, 16:07 BRT
- Bradesco’s ADRs were up 0.6% at $3.51 in late trading in New York.
- Initial consensus indicates adjusted profit of R$6.988 billion in the second quarter, with return on equity at 16%.
- To maintain that return, a fully subscribed capital increase would need approximately R$400 million in quarterly profit. This figure is an initial pro-forma estimate.
Banco Bradesco S.A. (NYSE:BBD; BVMF:BBDC4) traded marginally higher ahead of its second-quarter earnings release. Cash markets in São Paulo and New York continued to operate. Bradesco is set to publish results after both markets have closed.
Market expectations indicate adjusted profit at R$6.988 billion, with return on equity projected at 16%. The profit projection represents a 2.6% increase over the prior quarter.
The capital raise will have no impact on second-quarter earnings. However, it sets up a future profit benchmark. With a 16% annualized ROE, R$10 billion requires R$1.6 billion per year, or R$400 million each quarter.
A minimum of R$8 billion would need around R$320 million each quarter. These figures correspond to 4.6% to 5.7% of the present Q2 consensus earnings. The estimate is based on total capital deployment without further equity adjustments.
Controllers have set a solid R$8 billion guarantee. A complete take-up might boost Bradesco’s common-equity ratio by around 90 basis points. The rights will be available from August 6 to September 4. Those not taking part may see dilution of up to 3.4%.
Bradesco trailed behind its two private bank competitors late on Wednesday. The prices listed below were last quoted at approximately 14:52 EDT.
| U.S.-listed bank | Last price | Session change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banco Bradesco S.A. (NYSE:BBD; BVMF:BBDC4) | $3.51 | up 0.6% | 26.52 million |
| Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (NYSE:ITUB; BVMF:ITUB4) | $8.37 | rising 2.1% | 17.05 million |
| Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. (NYSE:BSBR; BVMF:SANB11) | $5.81 | up 2.3% | 1.37 million |
Peer earnings showed considerable variation in profitability. Itaú remained close to the leading performers. Santander Brasil posted its lowest return since late 2023.
| Q2 profitability comparison | Profit | ROE/ROAE | Versus profit consensus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bradesco preliminary consensus | R$6.988 billion | 16.0% | Awaiting |
| Itaú actual | R$12.407 billion | 24.3% | Roughly 0.2% short |
| Santander Brasil actual | R$3.010 billion | 12.5% | Almost 22.8% under |
Profit is reported according to each bank’s own basis. Bradesco’s numbers are still preliminary estimates.
Bradesco’s projected return is 3.5 percentage points higher than Santander’s but still trails Itaú’s by 8.3 points. This indicates potential for further gains, though heightened expectations may reduce patience for underperformance in the next quarter.
The capital assessment translates the recovery into a quantifiable profit objective. The table is based on Bradesco’s projected 16% return.
| Capital-increase scenario | Fresh equity | Profit required yearly | Profit required per quarter | Proportion of Q2 consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lowest subscription | R$8 billion | R$1.28 billion | R$320 million | 4.6% |
| Full subscription | R$10 billion | R$1.60 billion | R$400 million | 5.7% |
Initial pro-forma estimate. This projects the new equity will generate a 16% annual return.
Analysts are predominantly positive, with 10 out of 16 Bloomberg-tracked recommendations rating the stock a buy. There are no sell ratings.
| Recommendation | Number | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Buy | 10 | 62.5% |
| Hold | 6 | 37.5% |
| Sell | 0 | 0.0% |
CEO Marcelo Noronha referred to the recovery effort as a “step by step” process. Investors will gauge progress in relation to the 16% return target. Seudinheiro
Recurring profit increased for the ninth straight quarter in the first three months. ROAE stood at 15.8%. Loan-loss provisions grew by 26.5% compared with a year ago. Bradesco raised the portion of secured loans.
Client net interest income and credit provisions are pivotal Q2 metrics. Growth in secured loans and insurance revenue will also be key factors. Analysts forecast these segments will help drive further earnings growth.
Risks: Elevated rates might undermine household and corporate lending. Additional provisions may be necessary. Reduced margin growth could push back the target for post-raise returns, and those who do not participate may experience dilution.
Bradesco is set to report earnings after the close on Wednesday. The company’s investor webcast begins at 09:30 EDT on August 6. The bank’s future turnaround is expected to be shaped by capital deployment and credit cost trends.
