AUSTIN, Texas, August 25, 2026, 18:40 EDT
- CrowdStrike finished at $185.38, a decline of 2.78%, ahead of its fiscal second-quarter results on Wednesday.
- Options are pricing in an 8% swing, which equates to about $14.83 per share or approximately $15.1 billion in market capitalization.
- The company forecast annual recurring revenue of approximately $5.794 billion and projected quarterly revenue at $1.439 billion.
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWD) slipped 2.78% to $185.38 on Tuesday. The cybersecurity firm lagged a 0.66% gain in the Nasdaq Composite ahead of its fiscal second-quarter earnings report closing market data.
Options pricing suggests an 8% shift either up or down by the end of the week. Based on Tuesday’s closing price, this sets an expected trading band between $170.55 and $200.21. This projected volatility represents approximately $15.1 billion in market capitalisation options and estimates.
This is the relevant scale for Wednesday’s test, with the implied value shift exceeding $1.44 billion—the amount analysts project in revenue for the quarter—by more than tenfold.
CrowdStrike is scheduled to announce results after the U.S. market closes on August 26. The conference call is due to begin at 17:00 EDT company announcement.
| Cybersecurity stock | August 25 close | Daily move | Next earnings |
|---|---|---|---|
| CrowdStrike (CRWD) | $185.38 | −2.78% | August 26 |
| Palo Alto Networks (PANW) | $339.90 | −3.13% | September 1 |
| Zscaler (ZS) | $168.42 | −4.34% | September 3 |
| Fortinet (FTNT) | $153.66 | +1.10% | Reported July 29 |
Software security peers displayed caution. Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: PANW) declined 3.13%. Zscaler, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZS) fell 4.34%.
Fortinet, Inc. (NASDAQ: FTNT) gained 1.10%. CrowdStrike saw a volume of 8.27 million shares, still under its recent average, suggesting Tuesday’s decline was not a clear indicator of a major shift.
The company projects revenue between $1.436 billion and $1.442 billion. The consensus analyst forecast of $1.44 billion closely matches the midpoint. Wall Street estimates adjusted earnings at $0.29 per split-adjusted share.
The more significant metric is annual recurring revenue, or ARR, which tracks subscription revenue based on yearly contracts. CrowdStrike projected ARR between $5.793 billion and $5.795 billion as of July 31 first-quarter results and outlook.
The midpoint suggests an increase of about $284 million from April’s $5.51 billion balance. This reflects an approximately 11% rise compared to the $255.8 million net new ARR recorded in the first quarter. Due to rounding in the reported balance, the figure is an estimate.
Profitability poses an additional challenge for management. CrowdStrike projected non-GAAP operating income between $345.6 million and $349.1 million. At the midpoint, this represents a 24.1% margin on midpoint revenue.
The previous quarter established a strong cash-flow standard. Revenue climbed 26% to $1.39 billion. Free cash flow totaled $468.5 million, and the non-GAAP subscription gross margin stood at 81%.
Analyst sentiment stays upbeat, though valuation restricts potential for a typical beat. Out of 53 analysts, most rate the stock as Buy, with the mean price target at $210.54. CrowdStrike currently trades at approximately 37 times past revenue and 146 times projected earnings.
Risks: If ARR falls short of $5.793 billion, the case for acceleration would be undermined. Weaker guidance may drive shares down to the options market’s $170.55 lower limit. Conversely, a higher net new ARR or stronger margins could prompt bearish traders to close their positions.
Investors receive the numbers following Wednesday’s market close. The 17:00 EDT call will indicate if demand for AI security is translating into secured Falcon revenue.
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