Sao Paulo, Feb 8, 2026, 07:50 BRT — The market has closed.
- Bradesco preferred shares (BBDC4) slipped 2.6% Friday, closing at R$20.61.
- Fourth-quarter 2025 profit rose, and the bank also released its 2026 goals for loans, margins, and costs.
- Next up: Brazil’s inflation data lands Tuesday, a key lever for rate expectations—and for bank shares.
Banco Bradesco’s preferred shares dropped 2.6% to finish at 20.61 reais on Friday. Investors now face a weekend to digest new earnings figures and the bank’s 2026 targets before markets reopen Monday. 1
Here’s the thing: Bradesco wants better returns, but not at the expense of surging costs—and now, for the first time, the bank has spelled out exactly how it aims to do that. Investors are about to get their first uncluttered look at how the market values this balance.
Brazilian banks ride the rate swings. Fat lending spreads show up when rates run high, though the same rates can squeeze borrowers and turn credit sour.
Bradesco posted recurring net income of 6.5 billion reais in its fourth-quarter numbers, reporting a return on average equity (ROAE) of 15.2%. Total revenue for the quarter landed at 36.1 billion reais. The bank’s loan portfolio grew to 1.089 trillion reais. Bradesco said that recent investments in transformation efforts have “placed temporary pressure” on expenses. 2
The bank’s updated 2026 outlook calls for loan portfolio growth between 8.5% and 10.5%. It’s projecting net interest income after provisions at 42 billion to 48 billion reais. Fee and commission income is expected to rise 3% to 5%, while operating expenses are forecast to increase 6% to 8%.
During the earnings call, CEO Marcelo Noronha stuck to his message on spending, telling investors, “Technology will require growing, constant investing over time.” But analysts pressed the management team on why expenses are still climbing, despite previous cuts—highlighting just how much the cost issue is under the microscope. 3
Bradesco’s turnaround plan is all about tech and distribution—think more digital clients, cross-selling, stricter underwriting—while it tries to keep credit quality on an even keel. That narrative works if rates come down. If defaults climb or the economy hits a rougher patch, though, the story looks a lot less convincing.
Bradesco’s preferred ADR (BBD) ended Friday’s session in New York at $3.98, trade data show. Shares moved between $3.80 and $4.05 during the day.
There’s a risk that the guidance could be too rosy. The bank acknowledges these projections aren’t set in stone. If rate cuts drag out, loan demand weakens, or asset quality slips—leading to bigger provisions—profits could get pinched. That downside scenario is hardly new.
Policy jitters keep feeding that risk premium. Guilherme Mello, Brazil’s top economic policy official and a possible pick for the central bank board, argued the country’s debt trajectory “depend on monetary policy decisions.” Investors are now parsing every nomination for signs the bank might change course. 4
Brazil’s January IPCA inflation data lands Tuesday, and that’s likely to shake up rate expectations—bank stocks could swing. 5
Traders are eyeing the calendar too. B3 plans to close for Carnival on Feb. 16, and more timetable tweaks tied to the festival are coming—expect liquidity to dry up around those sessions. 6
