New York, Jan 29, 2026, 09:24 EST — Premarket
- Bradesco ADRs held steady just below a one-year peak ahead of the U.S. open.
- Brazil’s central bank held the Selic rate at 15% but hinted that rate cuts could begin as soon as March.
- Investors are eyeing fresh credit data alongside Bradesco’s upcoming quarterly results for signs of loan growth and defaults.
Banco Bradesco SA’s U.S.-listed shares (BBD) nudged 0.1% higher to $4.16 in premarket action Thursday, holding close to the upper end of their 52-week range following Wednesday’s close.
That modest move still carries weight. The bank’s shares have reflected changing bets on Brazil’s interest-rate trajectory, a crucial factor for loan demand and credit losses. On Wednesday, Brazil’s central bank held the Selic rate steady at 15%, its main policy benchmark, while signaling a likely start to cuts in March. Officials emphasized “serenity” regarding both the pace and magnitude of easing. Flavio Serrano, chief economist at Banco BMG, said policymakers were “as clear as possible” about the shift toward rate reductions and maintained his forecast for a 50-basis-point cut in March (a basis point equals 0.01 percentage point). Reuters
Official figures revealed that bank lending in Brazil climbed 10.2% in 2025, surpassing the central bank’s December forecast of 9.4%. The jump was driven by a pickup in household borrowing, supported by government credit stimulus programs. Total loans expanded 1.8% in December, reaching 7.1 trillion reais ($1.37 trillion). At the same time, a broad measure of defaults inched up to 5.4%, while lending spreads tightened slightly, the data showed.
Bradesco and its peers face a tricky balance: high rates boost interest income in some areas but strain borrowers, risking more problem loans. A genuine move toward rate cuts might spur credit demand, yet it could also tighten margins as the cycle shifts.
Some investors interpret the central bank’s tone as a signal for a sustained rally in Brazil-linked financials following a prolonged period of tight policy. Others remain cautious, seeing “serenity” as the statement’s main driver—a subtle warning that inflation hiccups could delay progress.
Other Brazil bank ADRs showed gains in early trading, with Itau Unibanco (ITUB) rising roughly 1.1% and Santander Brasil (BSBR) climbing about 1.4%.
There’s a clear risk, though. Should inflation pick up again or growth prove more resilient than policymakers expect, the central bank might tighten at a slower pace than markets anticipate. That would push rates higher for a longer stretch, increasing default risks—a particular headache for lenders heavily exposed to retail.
Bradesco’s next major event is its fourth-quarter earnings report. The bank’s quiet period lasts until Feb. 5, with results set to drop after markets close in Brazil and New York. A webcast will follow the next day, Feb. 6.
