London, Jan 16, 2026, 12:00 GMT — Regular session.
- Brent steadied after Thursday’s sharp slide as Iran-related supply risks stayed in focus.
- U.S. inventory data pointed to rising crude and gasoline stocks.
- Next week’s IEA oil market report is the next big checkpoint for 2026 supply-demand calls.
Brent crude rose on Friday, clawing back some of the previous session’s losses as traders weighed easing fears of a U.S. strike on Iran against fresh signals of ample supply. Brent was up 50 cents, or 0.78%, at $64.26 a barrel by 1000 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 48 cents to $59.67. 1
The bounce followed a sharp fall on Thursday that knocked out much of the week’s “risk premium” — the extra price traders pay for possible supply disruptions — after President Donald Trump said Iran’s crackdown on protesters was easing. Brent settled down $2.76, or 4.15%, at $63.76 after touching $66.82 on Wednesday, its highest since September. “We went from a high likelihood that Trump was going to hit Iran to a low likelihood,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. 2
Supply-and-demand markers are muscling their way back into the story as traders look beyond the headlines. U.S. commercial crude inventories rose by 3.4 million barrels to 422.4 million last week, while gasoline stocks jumped 9.0 million barrels, U.S. government data showed. 3
Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva said “the underlying balance still points to ample supply,” and argued oil looks “range-bound,” with Brent broadly between $57 and $67 without a clear pickup in Chinese demand or a pinch in physical flows. IG analysts said any escalation with Iran would revive concerns about disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping chokepoint that handles roughly 20 million barrels per day. 4
OPEC on Wednesday published its first 2027 demand projection, expecting growth of 1.34 million barrels per day, close to its 1.38 million bpd forecast for 2026. It also said OPEC+ — OPEC and allies including Russia — plans to pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026, while pointing to a much looser view from the International Energy Agency, whose latest figures imply a surplus of about 3.84 million bpd in 2026. 5
On the supply side, several European partners of Venezuela’s PDVSA — including Repsol, ENI and Maurel & Prom — have applied for U.S. authorisations that would let them export Venezuelan crude while supplying fuels to the country through debt-recovery mechanisms, sources told Reuters. The companies have not been able to export Venezuelan oil since the second quarter of last year after Washington suspended licences, the sources said. 6
For now, Brent is struggling to keep a lasting geopolitical bid in place with inventories rising and forecasters split on whether 2026 turns into a glut. The trade has turned jumpy: big moves on headlines, then quick retracements.
But the risks cut both ways. A renewed surge in Iranian tensions, tougher sanctions, or any disruption at Hormuz could pull prices back toward this week’s highs, while another run of rising stocks and faster supply returns would put the low-$60s back on the table.
Brent futures trade on ICE from 01:00 to 23:00 London time, leaving a long window for political news and official data to hit prices before the daily settlement period. 7
Next up is the IEA’s January oil market report on Wednesday, Jan. 21, due at 10:00 Paris time, a key read on whether demand growth can keep pace with expected supply. Traders will also watch next week’s U.S. inventory data and any further signals from Washington and Tehran over the weekend. 8
