London, Jan 26, 2026, 11:33 GMT — Regular session
- Brent edged closer to $66 a barrel, while WTI saw a modest uptick.
- Rising tensions in the Middle East and severe winter storms across the U.S. pushed prices higher.
- Traders will eye Kazakhstan export flows on Wednesday, Jan. 28, along with U.S. inventory figures.
Brent crude futures nudged up Monday, rising 7 cents to $65.95 a barrel by 1107 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude crept higher as well, adding 3 cents to $61.10. The moves come after oil prices surged more than 2% amid U.S. weather disruptions and fresh uncertainty over Iran. 1
This change matters because crude prices lately have reacted mainly to short, sharp supply shocks. Now, the market is testing how much strength holds up once the news cycle quiets. Though small triggers have moved prices, sustaining gains has proven difficult.
Refiners and shippers are zeroing in on disruptions affecting prompt barrels rather than the supply-demand balance a month ahead. Traders, on the other hand, are watching closely to determine whether a geopolitical premium will hold or fade fast.
Brent crude rose 42 cents earlier in Asia, hitting $66.30 a barrel. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore pointed to President Donald Trump’s “armada” remarks on Iran as a trigger for supply disruption fears. Meanwhile, Phillip Nova’s Priyanka Sachdeva noted ongoing U.S. outages and geopolitical risks but flagged a possible oversupply by 2026. JPMorgan analysts estimate that severe weather has cut U.S. crude output by roughly 250,000 barrels per day. 2
Energy markets are feeling the chill well beyond crude oil. U.S. natural gas prices surged, fueled by predictions of freeze-offs and a surge in heating needs. It’s a stark reminder: winter shocks can hit hard—and then fade quickly. 3
Iran raised the stakes with a blunt warning from a senior official: any attack against Tehran will be treated “as an all-out war.” Reports say the military is on high alert, preparing for a possible escalation. 4
Supply worries from Kazakhstan have resurfaced. Tengizchevroil announced it’s slowly restarting the huge Tengiz oilfield after a long shutdown. The company confirmed the power distribution system is safely back online and crude production has entered its “initial stage” of resumption. In 2024, the field produced about 606,000 barrels per day. The Tengiz consortium includes Chevron, Exxon Mobil, KazMunayGaz, and Lukoil. 5
Kazakhstan’s main export route is back online after the Caspian Pipeline Consortium completed maintenance on the SPM-3 mooring point at its Black Sea terminal. A tanker has been loaded, restoring full capacity at the site, which handles roughly 1.5% of the global oil supply. 6
Still, the same forces pushing prices up might also cap their advance. If U.S. output rebounds quickly alongside milder weather, and Kazakhstan’s supply keeps improving, the recent rally could unravel—especially if geopolitical tensions cool and the risk premium declines.
Data grabs the spotlight next. Traders are focused on the U.S. weekly crude and fuel inventory figures from the Energy Information Administration, due Wednesday, Jan. 28. At the same time, they’re watching for any new storm-driven shutdowns and updates from Washington and Tehran.
