Brinker International (EAT) Stock: Fresh News, Analyst Forecasts and Turnaround Outlook as of December 11, 2025

Brinker International, Inc. (NYSE: EAT) — the parent of Chili’s Grill & Bar and Maggiano’s Little Italy — is back in the market spotlight.

On December 11, 2025, Brinker shares are trading around $146, up roughly 7% intraday, after bouncing between $135.85 and $146.00 so far in today’s session.

That puts the stock about 24% below its 52‑week high near $192 and roughly 46% above its 52‑week low around $100, underscoring how volatile the turnaround story has been for investors over the past year. ^[1]

Company snapshot: a Chili’s‑powered turnaround

Brinker operates more than 1,600 restaurants worldwide under the Chili’s and Maggiano’s banners, generating the vast majority of its revenue from Chili’s. ^[2]

Over the last two fiscal years, management has pushed a classic restaurant turnaround playbook: simplify the menu, sharpen value messaging, invest in kitchen and service operations, and then add marketing fuel once the basics are fixed. That strategy is now showing up in the numbers:

Chili’s same‑store sales have posted high‑teens to low‑20% growth over the last several quarters. ^[3]
Restaurant‑level margins have climbed from the low‑teens to the mid‑ to high‑teens, depending on the quarter. ^[4]
The company has used that improved cash flow to pay down more than $500 million of debt and bring its lease‑adjusted leverage down to about 1.7x over the past three years. ^[5]

In short: Chili’s is carrying the show, while Maggiano’s is still a work in progress.

Stock price today: beating short‑term models

Short‑term quantitative models had expected a relatively muted open for EAT today. One widely followed technical service, for example, projected a “fair” opening price near $137.20 for December 11. ^[6]

Instead, Brinker opened around $137.98 and pushed up to $146.00, significantly outpacing that model as buyers stepped in following another wave of institutional activity and positive sentiment around the turnaround.

This follows several sharp upside days in recent weeks, including:

An 8–9% pop after a Citigroup upgrade to “Buy” and a higher price target, which framed Brinker as a beneficiary of easing beef costs and growing popularity among younger guests at Chili’s. ^[7]
Double‑digit percentage gains on October 29 when the company reported a strong first quarter of fiscal 2026, beating both revenue and earnings expectations. ^[8]

Momentum traders now have a stock that’s both volatile and liquid, while long‑term holders are dealing with the question: how much of the turnaround is already priced in?

Fresh December 11 headlines: institutions shuffle the deck

Big money still rotating into EAT

Today’s filings and news flow show that professional investors remain highly active in Brinker:

Mane Global Capital Management LP disclosed a new position of 380,942 shares, worth about $68.7 million at the time of its latest 13F filing. ^[9]
Diametric Capital LP recently acquired 13,511 shares, adding another hedge fund to the bull camp. ^[10]

On the other side of the ledger:

Federated Hermes Inc. filed that it has sold 7,558 Brinker shares, trimming but not exiting its position. ^[11]

MarketBeat’s institutional-ownership data shows hundreds of funds have added or reduced positions in recent quarters, with some big names like Franklin Resources, Wellington Management, Marshall Wace, and Bank of America among the largest net sellers over the past two years. ^[12]

The picture: hedge funds and asset managers are actively trading around the story, but the presence of new large positions suggests that conviction in the turnaround is far from exhausted.

Insider activity: mostly small, and not panic‑selling

Recent insider filings present a mixed but generally benign picture:

Daniel S. Fuller, a senior vice president and Chief Legal Officer, reported a bona fide gift of 3,200 shares on December 9, leaving him with roughly 38,700 shares in total. ^[13]
A director filed a sale of 637 shares at $152.70 on November 25, and another disclosure reported a 428‑share sale around mid‑November. ^[14]
A separate Form 4 showed a director acquiring 576 shares via a non‑cash transaction earlier in November. ^[15]

MarketBeat notes that insiders collectively own only about 1–2% of shares outstanding, while institutions hold the majority of the float. ^[16]

Nothing in the recent Form 4s looks like a mass exodus; instead, they read like routine portfolio and estate moves around a stock that has risen sharply.

Earnings momentum: Q1 2026 keeps the streak alive

Brinker’s first quarter of fiscal 2026 (reported October 29, 2025) was one of the key catalysts behind the recent rally.

According to the company’s 8‑K filing and independent coverage:

Revenue: $1.35 billion, above the $1.33 billion consensus.
EPS: $2.17, comfortably ahead of the roughly $1.80 analyst estimate. ^[17]
Comparable restaurant sales: up 18.8% overall, with Chili’s comps up 21.4%; Maggiano’s traffic, however, declined, highlighting a split between the two brands. ^[18]
Operating income: nearly doubled year‑over‑year, with operating margin rising from 5.0% to about 8.7%. ^[19]
Restaurant‑level margin: improved from 13.5% to 16.2%, showing that the company is converting higher sales into profit rather than just inflating the top line with discounts. ^[20]
Buybacks: roughly $92 million of stock repurchased during the quarter. ^[21]

Earlier in calendar 2025, Brinker had already posted spectacular numbers:

Q3 fiscal 2025 (quarter ended March 26, 2025) saw company sales jump to $1.41 billion from $1.11 billion a year earlier, with comparable sales up 28.2% and Chili’s comps up 31.6%. Restaurant operating margin climbed to 18.9%, and EPS more than doubled to $2.56. ^[22]
Q4 fiscal 2025 delivered another beat: EPS of $2.49 vs. $2.44 expected on $1.44 billion in revenue, with total revenue up 21.9% year‑over‑year, Chili’s same‑store sales up 23.7%, and restaurant operating margin at 17.8%. ^[23]

Taken together, these results show a restaurant chain that has moved from a cost‑inflation victim to a genuine earnings‑growth story, led by Chili’s traffic and mix, not just price hikes.

Guidance: from “fixing” to “growing”

Brinker’s guidance underscores that management believes the turnaround is durable, not just a one‑off burst driven by pricing:

For fiscal 2025, the company guided revenue to $5.33–$5.35 billion and adjusted EPS to $8.50–$8.75. ^[24]
On its Q4 2025 call, Brinker lifted the bar further, projecting fiscal 2026 revenue of $5.6–$5.7 billion and adjusted EPS between $9.90 and $10.50. Management also laid out a plan to remodel about 10% of the fleet each year, leaning into technology upgrades and refreshed dining rooms. ^[25]

If the company hits the midpoint of its FY26 guidance, today’s $146 share price implies a forward P/E of roughly 14x, which is not extreme for a company growing earnings at a double‑digit clip — but also not “deep value” anymore.

Analyst forecasts: consensus bullish, but with dissenters

Across multiple data providers, Wall Street still leans positive on EAT:

StockAnalysis reports 16 analysts with a “Buy” consensus and an average 12‑month price target of about $163, with estimates ranging from $115 to $210. ^[26]
MarketBeat shows 19 analysts with an average target around $167, again with a wide range between roughly $115 and the low‑$200s. ^[27]
The investing app Public.com cites a Buy consensus and a central 2025 price prediction near $164.35. ^[28]

Underneath that broadly bullish surface, opinions diverge:

A Citigroup upgrade to “Buy” late in November focused on Chili’s traffic momentum, easing beef costs, and rising engagement from younger diners — a strong vote of confidence in the brand. ^[29]
The StocksToTrade analysis of Q1 2026 highlighted a cluster of positive ratings: Mizuho initiating with “Outperform” and a $155 target, Freedom Capital at $145 with a “Buy,” and Argus trimming its target to $128 but staying positive on the name. ^[30]
A recent StockStory/Finviz piece takes the opposite tack, placing Brinker in the “stocks to be cautious about” bucket: it notes a relatively low beta but argues that forward sales growth estimates near 3% and sub‑par gross margins mean investors shouldn’t expect effortless market‑beating returns from here. ^[31]
Seeking Alpha contributors are now more mixed, with at least one prominent article shifting the stock to a “Hold”, arguing that the share price already reflects much of the near‑term upside implied by current guidance. ^[32]

Meanwhile, Zacks has repeatedly flagged Brinker as a “trending stock”, warning traders to look closely at earnings‑estimate revisions rather than chasing price action alone. ^[33]

In other words: the Street broadly agrees that Brinker has fixed its operations; the debate is whether you’re still early or already late to the party.

Balance sheet, buybacks and the narrative shift

A recent Yahoo Finance piece framed the story as a “narrative shift” rather than a simple cyclical rebound:

Between June 26 and September 24, 2025, Brinker repurchased about 600,000 shares, roughly 1.35% of its shares outstanding, even as the stock rallied — a sign of management confidence in intrinsic value. ^[34]
Net debt remains manageable, especially after the company reduced funded debt by hundreds of millions while simultaneously stepping up remodeling and marketing spend. ^[35]

For fundamental investors, that combination — expanding margins, net share‑count reduction, and measured leverage — is exactly what you want to see in a mature consumer brand turning itself around.

Risks: tariffs, traffic normalization and short interest

Brinker is not without meaningful risks, and recent coverage has been explicit about them:

A Wall Street Journal update last month noted that tariffs on imported goods are starting to pressure Brinker’s costs, forcing the company to lean more on menu price increases — a tactic that can only go so far before it hurts traffic. ^[36]
The company itself has acknowledged that Maggiano’s is struggling with traffic declines, even as it leans on pricing to keep revenues afloat. ^[37]
Sector‑wide shifts — such as “bowl fatigue” hitting some fast‑casual concepts — remind investors that guest preferences can turn quickly. While that Bloomberg piece was aimed at Chipotle, Sweetgreen and Cava, it underscores how fragile food trends can be. ^[38]

From a market‑structure standpoint:

Short‑interest data show about 5.9 million EAT shares sold short, roughly 13–14% of the float as of mid‑October — high enough to add volatility and potential for squeezes if the news stays positive. ^[39]

Combine tariff risk, wage inflation, a highly competitive casual‑dining landscape and an elevated short base, and you get a stock where the downside on a bad quarter can be as violent as the upside on a good one.

How today’s setup looks for investors

Putting it all together as of December 11, 2025:

Operationally, Brinker is in far better shape than two years ago. Chili’s is delivering strong traffic and sales, margins are up, and the balance sheet is cleaner. ^[40]
Financially, the company is guiding to mid‑teens EPS growth into fiscal 2026 and beyond, while buying back shares and investing in remodels — classic “self‑help” levers that can extend the runway if consumer demand holds. ^[41]
Valuation‑wise, at about 14x the midpoint of FY26 EPS guidance, EAT looks neither dirt‑cheap nor bubble‑priced. The Street’s average targets in the $160–$170 range imply high single‑ to low double‑digit upside from here, plus whatever medium‑term EPS growth the company can deliver beyond that window. ^[42]
Sentiment is split: hedge funds and new institutional buyers are still coming in, analysts are mostly positive, but at least one high‑profile research note is effectively saying “great company, fair price.” ^[43]

For investors and traders watching EAT today, the key questions are:

Can Chili’s keep growing traffic without over‑relying on discounts or aggressive price hikes?
Will tariffs, wage inflation and macro softness erode the margin gains of 2025–2026? ^[44]
Does a mid‑teens P/E fully reflect the turnaround, or is there still room for upside if management hits or raises guidance again?

Whatever your view, Brinker has clearly graduated from “struggling chain” to core debate stock in the restaurant space — with fundamentals strong enough to attract real long‑only money and volatility spicy enough to keep traders interested.