Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) Stock Update – 7 December 2025: Alzheimer’s Trial Twist, ASH 2025 Pipeline Data and a $6.7 Billion Lawsuit

Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) has packed a lot into the first week of December 2025 – from a surprise update on a key Alzheimer’s drug trial to major hematology data at ASH 2025 and a legal setback over its Celgene acquisition. All of this is landing on a stock that has finally bounced after years of underperformance but still trades as a high‑yield value name.

As of the market close on Friday, 5 December 2025, BMY shares were at $52.15, with after‑hours trading around $52.05, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $106 billion. The stock’s 52‑week range stands at $42.52–$63.33, with a trailing P/E of about 17.5x and an annual dividend of $2.48 per share (a yield just under 5% at current prices). ^[1]

After a rough three years in which the share price fell about 40%, largely due to patent cliffs and slowing sales of flagship drugs, recent news has sparked a short‑term rebound. ^[2] Over the last several trading days, BMY has climbed roughly 7%, adding about $7 billion in market value. ^[3]

Below is a detailed look at the latest news, forecasts and analysis as of 7 December 2025, and what it may mean for investors following the stock.

Where BMY Stands Now: Valuation, Dividend and Street View

Valuation snapshot

Key current stats for BMY:

Share price (close 5 Dec 2025): $52.15
Market cap: ~$106 billion
Trailing P/E: ~17.5x; forward P/E: ~8.4x ^[4]
Dividend: $2.48 per share annually, for a yield of about 4.7–5%, depending on entry price ^[5]
Beta: ~0.3 – significantly less volatile than the broader market ^[6]

This combo – low beta, high cash generation, and a near‑5% yield – is why many commentators and research platforms continue to frame BMY primarily as a defensive income/value stock rather than a growth play. ^[7]

Analyst consensus and price targets

Different aggregators show slightly different figures, but they tell a similar story:

Stock Analysis / Benzinga consensus:
- 12 covering analysts
- Average 12‑month price target:$55.58
- Range: $34 (low) to $68 (high)
- Implied upside vs. $52.15: about +6.6%
- Consensus rating:Hold ^[8]
TradingView consensus:
- Analyst price target:$52.81 (very close to the current price)
- Analyst rating (30 analysts, last 3 months):neutral ^[9]
MarketBeat institutional/ratings summary:
- Roughly 4 Buy ratings and 15 Hold ratings
- Average target price around $55.25 ^[10]

Put simply, Wall Street’s base case is that BMY will roughly track the market over the next year, with modest single‑digit upside unless the pipeline over‑delivers.

The Big Story of the Week: Cobenfy’s Alzheimer’s Trial and a “Good” Delay

The most market‑moving news this week came from Cobenfy, Bristol Myers’ antipsychotic drug originally developed by Karuna Therapeutics and already approved for adult schizophrenia. The company is running the ADEPT program to test Cobenfy in psychosis associated with Alzheimer’s disease, a large and underserved market.

What Bristol Myers announced

On 3 December 2025, Bristol Myers issued a press release stating that it will: ^[11]

Enroll additional patients in the Phase 3 ADEPT‑2 trial after:
- A blinded review uncovered irregularities in trial execution at a small number of study sites.
- The company decided to exclude data from those sites from the primary analysis.
Following consultation with the FDA and a review of interim efficacy and safety data by an independent party and the Data Monitoring Committee (DMC):
- The DMC recommended continuing the study and expanding enrollment back to the original target population.
- BMS remains blinded to the efficacy data.
Cobenfy has the potential to be the first treatment in a new class of muscarinic receptor‑targeting drugs for psychosis and agitation in Alzheimer’s patients, with readouts from ADEPT‑2 and other ADEPT trials expected by the end of 2026. ^[12]

This is not a trivial indication: there are few effective options and a large, growing patient pool as populations age.

Why a delay lifted the stock

Typically, delays in Phase 3 trials spook investors. But in this case, BMY’s share price jumped about 5–6% on the news, with various outlets reporting a 5.6% one‑day gain and a 5–6% move over two sessions following the announcement. ^[13]

Commentary from MarketWatch, Barron’s and Investor’s Business Daily highlighted the same key points: ^[14]

The FDA and DMC supported continuing and expanding the trial, which investors interpret as a positive signal on early efficacy and safety.
BMS chose to tighten study quality standards by dropping data from problematic sites – a move seen as reinforcing the credibility of any eventual positive outcome.
Cobenfy is widely viewed as a potential multi‑billion‑dollar franchise in Alzheimer’s‑related psychosis, with some analyst estimates pointing to up to $2.6 billion in peak sales for that indication alone. ^[15]

Forbes also noted that Bristol Myers’ market value rose by about $7 billion over five days, with the stock climbing around 7.3% as investors reassessed the risk/reward of the pipeline. ^[16]

In short, the market is trading the trial continuation as a sign of non‑failure. A pushed‑out timeline is being treated as acceptable if the underlying signal is strong enough.

ASH 2025: Deepening the Hematology Pipeline Story

While Cobenfy dominated the headlines, the American Society of Hematology (ASH) 2025 Annual Meeting is quietly telling an equally important story: Bristol Myers is trying to rebuild growth through next‑generation hematology assets.

In a major ASH 2025 news release, the company said it is presenting more than 95 data disclosures, including 27 oral presentations, across its hematology portfolio and collaborations. ^[17] Highlights include:

Iberdomide (oral CELMoD) in multiple myeloma
- Updated trial data in maintenance after autologous stem‑cell transplant and in transplant‑ineligible patients show deep and sustained responses, with strong minimal residual disease (MRD) negativity rates. ^[18]
Golcadomide (first‑in‑class lymphoma CELMoD)
- Two‑year follow‑up confirms durable responses when combined with R‑CHOP in aggressive B‑cell lymphoma.
- Extended follow‑up in relapsed/refractory follicular lymphoma and diffuse large B‑cell lymphoma also looks promising. ^[19]
BMS‑986458, a novel BCL6 ligand‑directed degrader
- Early‑phase data show encouraging efficacy and tolerability in relapsed/refractory non‑Hodgkin lymphoma. ^[20]
Breyanzi (lisocabtagene maraleucel) long‑term data
- Three‑year data in follicular lymphoma and four‑year data in large B‑cell lymphoma confirm durable responses and high survival rates for this CD19 CAR‑T therapy. ^[21]

These data points reinforce Breyanzi’s role as a key growth driver. Barron’s and MoneyWeek have noted that Breyanzi revenue exceeded $1 billion in 2025, and new indications – including U.S. approval as the first CAR‑T for relapsed/refractory marginal zone lymphoma and European Commission approval for relapsed/refractory mantle cell lymphoma – further broaden its addressable market. ^[22]

Together with other platforms such as targeted protein degraders and additional cell therapies, ASH 2025 showcases how Bristol Myers is trying to offset the looming patent cliff with a multi‑asset hematology franchise.

2025 Financial Performance: Growth Portfolio vs. Patent Cliff

First quarter 2025: strong growth from new products

Bristol Myers’ Q1 2025 results captured the central tension in its business: shrinking legacy products vs. a rapidly growing new‑drug portfolio. ^[23]

Key figures:

Total revenue: $11.2 billion, down 6% year‑on‑year (‑4% ex‑FX).
Growth Portfolio revenue: $5.6 billion, up 16% (+18% ex‑FX).
- Main contributors: Opdivo, Breyanzi, Reblozyl, Camzyos, and the strong early U.S. launch of Cobenfy.
Legacy Portfolio revenue: $5.6 billion, down 20%, reflecting:
- Continued generic erosion of Revlimid, Pomalyst, Sprycel and Abraxane, and
- The impact of U.S. Medicare Part D redesign.

In other words, roughly half of Q1 revenue now comes from the Growth Portfolio, which is growing at a mid‑teens clip, while the older, high‑margin blockbusters are shrinking at a double‑digit rate.

Third quarter 2025: earnings beat and guidance framework

By Q3 2025, the picture had improved modestly: ^[24]

Revenue: about $12.2 billion, up 3% year‑on‑year (2% ex‑FX).
Growth Portfolio revenue:$6.9 billion, up 18%.
GAAP EPS:$1.08.
Non‑GAAP EPS:$1.63, with both figures including a ‑$0.20 impact from acquired R&D and licensing items.
The quarter beat consensus estimates on both revenue (≈$12.22 billion vs. ≈$11.75 billion expected) and EPS (1.63 vs. 1.52), according to Zacks‑style summaries. ^[25]

On a full‑year basis, the company previously raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $45.8–46.8 billion and non‑GAAP EPS guidance to $6.70–7.00, reflecting confidence in the newer drugs despite ongoing legacy erosion. ^[26]

Analyst consensus compiled by StockAnalysis now projects: ^[27]

2025 revenue: ~$48.4 billion,
2026 revenue: ~$44.5 billion (an ~8% decline),
2025 EPS:$6.61,
2026 EPS:$6.09 (down ~8%).

Those numbers lay bare the patent cliff: even with high‑growth new products, the loss of exclusivity for Eliquis and others is expected to drive a temporary revenue and earnings step‑down before the new portfolio has fully ramped.

Legal Overhang: The $6.7 Billion Celgene CVR Lawsuit

On 1 December 2025, a U.S. federal judge delivered an unwelcome headline for Bristol Myers. ^[28]

In a ruling from the Southern District of New York:

Judge Jesse Furmanrejected BMS’s bid to dismiss a $6.7 billion lawsuit brought by UMB Bank on behalf of former Celgene contingent value right (CVR) holders.
The lawsuit alleges that BMS failed to use “diligent efforts” to secure timely FDA approvals for three drugs (including Breyanzi, as well as Ozanimod and ide‑cel), which were tied to a CVR payout worth an extra $9 per Celgene share if approvals hit specific deadlines.
Breyanzi’s FDA approval arrived five weeks after the relevant deadline, missing one of those CVR milestones.
While some claims were dismissed, the judge allowed key allegations, including breach of contract and failure to act in good faith, to proceed to the next stage.
BMS has been given three weeks to formally respond.

This doesn’t mean Bristol Myers will lose or pay the full $6.7 billion. But it does introduce a material legal overhang, adding uncertainty to the balance sheet and reminding investors that the Celgene deal still carries tail risk years after closing.

Institutional Positioning: CalPERS and the Ownership Base

Institutional investors remain heavily involved in BMY:

A MarketBeat report dated 7 December 2025 shows that the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) recently trimmed its BMY stake by about 2.9% in Q2 2025.
Even after trimming, CalPERS holds around 6.18 million shares, or approximately 0.30% of the company, valued at $286.27 million at the time of the filing. ^[29]
Smaller firms have been adding to positions, and overall, institutional investors and hedge funds own about 76.4% of BMY’s shares. ^[30]

That high level of institutional ownership tends to anchor liquidity and support the dividend, but it also means BMY is closely tracked – surprises, good or bad, tend to move the stock quickly.

What the Models Say: From “Modest Upside” to “Deeply Undervalued”

Beyond Wall Street target prices, several research platforms and quantitative models have weighed in on BMY’s valuation:

Simply Wall St DCF model
- Estimates an intrinsic value of about $117.66 per share, versus a recent price near $51.95.
- That implies the stock is roughly 56% undervalued on a discounted cash‑flow basis.
- It also notes BMY trades at about 17.5x earnings vs. an “optimal” 26.2x P/E for its fundamentals, and below the broader pharma industry average. ^[31]
TIKR 2027 outlook
- Compiles analyst targets that average around $53 per share, implying roughly 21% upside from levels near $44 when the article was written in October. ^[32]
- However, TIKR’s own guided valuation model, using a conservative 7x forward P/E, sees BMY closer to $45 by 2027, implying only around 4% total upside (~1.6% annual) from that earlier price.
- TIKR frames BMY as a “low‑risk income play” – more about defensive dividends than explosive growth. ^[33]
Algorithmic/technical price predictions
- Platforms like CoinCodex and Stockscan project BMY trading in the mid‑50s to low‑60s in 2026, with potential mid‑teens percentage upside from current levels. ^[34]
- These models are based largely on past price trends and volatility; they typically come with strong “not investment advice” disclaimers.

The upshot: fundamental DCF models see BMY as deeply undervalued, while consensus analyst targets suggest only modest upside, and more conservative models view it as a reasonably priced bond‑like equity whose main appeal is its dividend and defensive profile.

Bull, Bear and Base Case for BMY (as of December 2025)

This section is general market commentary, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Bull case

Cobenfy succeeds in Alzheimer’s‑related psychosis, unlocking a multi‑billion‑dollar franchise by late 2020s. ^[35]
Hematology assets like iberdomide, golcadomide, Breyanzi and BCL6 degraders convert ASH 2025 promise into commercial growth, reducing reliance on Eliquis and other legacy drugs. ^[36]
The legal overhang from the Celgene CVR lawsuit is resolved for a manageable sum, or in Bristol Myers’ favor. ^[37]
In this scenario, BMY could re‑rate closer to the sector average, bringing double‑digit annualized returns when combined with its near‑5% dividend yield.

Bear case

Cobenfy or other key pipeline assets disappoint, and 2026–2027 revenue/earnings fall more sharply than the current –8% revenue / –8% EPS consensus. ^[38]
Competitive pressure and pricing reforms further erode Eliquis, Opdivo and other legacy franchises.
The Celgene CVR case results in large damages, straining cash flows or forcing cuts to buybacks/dividends. ^[39]
In that world, BMY could remain range‑bound or trade at a discount to today’s levels, despite its dividend.

Base case

The patent cliff plays out largely as expected: revenue drops in 2026, then stabilizes as new products grow. ^[40]
Cobenfy delivers positive but not game‑changing results, adding to growth rather than transforming it. ^[41]
The CVR lawsuit is resolved on terms that are meaningful but not thesis‑breaking. ^[42]
Under this middle‑of‑the‑road view, BMY behaves like a defensive dividend stock: low‑to‑mid single‑digit price appreciation plus a 4–5% yield, roughly matching (or slightly trailing) the broader market.

Bottom Line

As of 7 December 2025, Bristol Myers Squibb stock sits at the intersection of:

A high‑yield, cash‑rich, defensive profile that appeals to income investors,
A major pipeline inflection, highlighted by the Alzheimer’s psychosis program for Cobenfy and next‑generation hematology assets showcased at ASH 2025, and
Non‑trivial legal and patent‑expiration risks, including the $6.7 billion Celgene CVR lawsuit and expected revenue declines in 2026.

For investors and traders following BMY, the near‑term narrative is likely to be driven by:

Further updates from the ADEPT Alzheimer’s trials,
Real‑world uptake and new indications for Breyanzi and other growth‑portfolio drugs, and
Progress (or lack thereof) in resolving major legal overhangs and navigating the patent cliff.

As always, this article is for information and news purposes only. It does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance and shouldn’t be treated as investment advice. If you’re considering any investment decisions involving BMY or other securities, it’s wise to do your own research or consult a qualified financial advisor.