London / New York — 19 December 2025
British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BAT) stock is ending the week with a familiar (and very shareholder-friendly) drumbeat: steady buybacks, a clearly telegraphed dividend schedule, and a fresh round of debate over what “lower end of guidance” really means for 2026.
On 19 December 2025, BAT disclosed another “Transaction in Own Shares” notice, confirming it repurchased shares the prior day as part of its ongoing buyback programme first announced in March 2024. [1]
That might sound routine—because it is—but routine matters in a stock that many investors own for cash returns (dividends + buybacks) and defensive characteristics. The bigger question now is whether BAT’s next phase of growth in “New Categories” (vaping, heated products, and nicotine pouches) can keep pace with intensifying competition and tighter regulation, especially in the U.S.
BAT’s latest buyback filing: what was announced on 19 December 2025
In the RNS dated 19 December 2025, BAT reported it bought back 159,774 ordinary shares (25p each) on 18 December 2025 from Goldman Sachs International under its ongoing repurchase programme. The company disclosed the price range and average paid:
- Highest price paid: 4,293.00p
- Lowest price paid: 4,238.00p
- Volume-weighted average price (VWAP): 4,265.90p
BAT said it intends to cancel the shares. After the purchase and cancellation, it reported it would have 2,179,891,962 ordinary shares in issue (excluding treasury shares) and would hold 132,988,352 shares in treasury. [2]
Buyback notices like this don’t usually move the stock on their own. But they reinforce two things income-and-value investors obsess over:
- management’s commitment to ongoing capital returns, and
- a shrinking share count (all else equal) that can support per-share metrics over time.
Where BAT shares are trading around 19 December 2025
Because BAT trades in multiple venues, the “stock price” depends on the listing you’re watching:
- London (LSE: BATS) showed 4,285p (≈ £42.85) on the London South East RNS/quote page at the time of capture (noting the site displays delayed pricing). [3]
- New York (NYSE: BTI) (ADR) last traded around $57.04 in the available market snapshot.
In practice, the two listings move together over time, with gaps driven by FX (GBP/USD), local market hours, and ADR mechanics.
The December narrative: “on track” for 2025, but 2026 flagged at the lower end
BAT’s most market-moving recent update wasn’t today’s buyback notice—it was the company’s 2025 Full Year Pre-Close Trading Update released 9 December 2025.
BAT’s own guidance highlights
BAT said it now expects roughly ~2% growth in both revenue and adjusted profit from operations for FY2025. It also said “New Category” revenue growth is accelerating to double-digit growth in H2, supporting mid-single-digit growth for the full year. [4]
BAT reiterated its mid-term growth framework starting in 2026:
- +3–5% revenue
- +4–6% adjusted profit from operations (APFO)
- +5–8% adjusted diluted EPS
…but added a key qualifier: 2026 performance is expected at the lower end of those ranges. [5]
BAT also tied its shareholder return story directly to the balance sheet: it said it remains on track to reduce leverage into its 2.0–2.5x target range by end-2026, alongside “progressive dividends” and “sustainable share buy-backs,” and explicitly pointed to FY26 buybacks of £1.3bn. [6]
What Reuters emphasized
Reuters framed the “lower end” guidance as being driven by stiffer competition in the U.S. vape market, even as BAT sees strong demand in nicotine pouches. Reuters also reported that BAT shares fell sharply on the day of the update (early December) as investors processed the outlook and U.S. competition risks. [7]
The U.S. battleground: nicotine pouches strong, vaping messy
If BAT were a movie, the U.S. would be the loud, expensive set-piece scene with the most explosions.
In its December update, BAT highlighted strong U.S. momentum driven by combustibles performance and the performance of Velo Plus. It also pointed to early signs that federal and state enforcement actions against illicit vaping products are helping support improvement in Vuse volumes and revenue in the U.S. [8]
That “illicit vapes” theme matters because it’s not just a regulatory footnote—it’s competitive reality. If large portions of the category are supplied by unregulated products (often imported), branded players like BAT can face pressure on both volumes and pricing power until enforcement tightens.
BAT’s own update also included a granular datapoint that gives a sense of how management sees 2025 shaping up in vaping: it expects full-year Vuse revenue to be down high-single digit (an improvement versus a larger decline earlier in the year), citing illicit headwinds in the U.S. and Canada plus portfolio/resource changes. [9]
Buyback extension for 2026: what the market learned this month
Beyond the day-to-day repurchase notices, BAT also laid out the next leg of its capital return plan: an extension of the buyback programme by up to £1.3 billion for 2026.
According to a company-news summary of BAT’s announcement, BAT entered an arrangement with UBS to buy ordinary shares during BAT’s closed period, described as running from 2 January 2026 to 11 February 2026, ending just before the release of BAT’s full-year results. [10]
The strategic meaning is straightforward: BAT is trying to execute buybacks consistently—even around blackout windows—while keeping the programme compliant and operationally independent.
Dividend calendar: the practical dates investors are watching next
BAT’s investor base includes a lot of people who don’t want drama. They want calendars.
In an RNS dated 15 December 2025, BAT reiterated that an interim dividend of 240.24p per ordinary share was declared earlier in 2025, payable in four equal quarterly instalments of 60.06p, with the February 2026 dividend payable on 4 February 2026 to shareholders on the UK main register or South Africa branch register on the record date of 30 December 2025. [11]
BAT also publishes a table of key dividend dates (including for ADR holders). For ADS (NYSE) holders, the schedule shows:
- Record date (JSE, LSE and NYSE): 30 December
- Shares commence trading ex-dividend (NYSE): 30 December
- ADS payment date (NYSE): 9 February 2026
- Payment date (LSE and JSE): 4 February 2026 [12]
So the near-term investor checklist looks like: record/ex-div timing at the end of December, then cash landing in early February, depending on your listing.
Deleveraging and “not strategic” holdings: ITC, ITC Hotels, and why it matters for BAT stock
BAT’s 2026 story is not just about nicotine pouches and vapes—it’s also about getting leverage down while still paying shareholders.
A notable December corporate action was BAT’s sale of part of its stake in ITC Hotels. BAT said on 5 December 2025 it completed a block trade of 187,500,000 shares in ITC Hotels, representing 9% of ITC Hotels’ issued ordinary share capital. BAT reported net proceeds of INR 38.2bn (about £315m at the stated exchange rate context) and said proceeds would be used to support progress toward its 2–2.5x leverage corridor by end-2026. After the sale, BAT said it retained about a 6.3% holding in ITC Hotels. [13]
BAT had already been active monetizing parts of its broader India-linked equity holdings earlier in 2025. Reuters reported in May 2025 that BAT sold about $1.5bn worth of shares in ITC Limited and said it would increase its 2025 share buyback programme by £200m as a result of that deal. [14]
Put together, these moves tell investors: BAT is serious about “balanced capital allocation”—returning cash, but also trimming leverage and simplifying holdings.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: what “the Street” is modelling
Forecasts for BAT vary by data provider, analyst set, currency basis, and whether you’re looking at London ordinary shares or the U.S. ADR. Here’s the best way to read them: not as prophecy, but as a map of market expectations.
London listing: BATS (LSE)
- MarketScreener’s consensus snapshot showed a target around 44.88 GBP against a prior close near 42.85 GBP, implying modest upside on that dataset. [15]
- MarketBeat’s BATS page showed a consensus-style target around 4,500p, with published targets spanning a wider range (roughly mid-3,000s pence to low-5,000s pence, depending on the broker updates captured). [16]
U.S. ADR: BTI (NYSE)
- MarketBeat’s BTI forecast page reported an average 12-month price target of $51.00, with targets ranging from $40 to $62 (which, notably, implies downside from ~$57 on that snapshot). [17]
- Investing.com’s BTI consensus estimates page reported an average target around 56.875, with a high estimate of 69 and a low around 40.5. [18]
Why the spread? Because “consensus” is not one thing. Different platforms include different analysts, update on different schedules, and sometimes treat ADR conversion and FX assumptions differently. The useful takeaway is the shape of expectations: cautious on vaping headwinds, constructive on cash returns, and highly sensitive to how fast enforcement and legal products can reclaim share from illicit supply.
Key catalysts to watch next for British American Tobacco stock
Going into early 2026, BAT investors are likely to fixate on a few concrete catalysts:
- Evidence that U.S. enforcement is materially improving legal vaping economics (not just headlines). BAT itself is explicitly leaning on this thesis. [19]
- New Category traction and profitability, particularly in nicotine pouches where BAT’s update highlighted strong momentum. [20]
- Execution of the £1.3bn FY26 buyback and the cadence of repurchases through the early-2026 closed-period structure. [21]
- Balance sheet progress, including how proceeds from divestments translate into leverage reduction while dividends remain “progressive.” [22]
The risk list (because reality always sends an invoice)
Even “defensive” stocks come with sharp edges, and tobacco comes with extra regulation-shaped ones:
- Regulatory and tax headwinds (including market-specific pressures noted by BAT in places like Bangladesh and Australia). [23]
- Illicit and unregulated competition, especially in vaping, which can compress margins and disrupt share trends until enforcement becomes consistently effective. [24]
- Execution risk in shifting the revenue base toward New Categories while combustibles volumes decline over time. [25]
- FX and interest-rate sensitivity, with BAT itself pointing to finance costs and currency headwinds in its technical guidance. [26]
Bottom line: why BAT stock is still a headline name on 19 December 2025
BAT’s 19 December buyback notice is small on its own—but it’s a pixel in a larger picture: a company trying to keep shareholders paid, shrink its share count, and pivot toward reduced-risk categories, all while navigating a regulatory and competitive environment that never stops moving.
Right now, the stock story is essentially a three-way tug-of-war:
- Cash returns (dividends + buybacks) pulling sentiment upward,
- U.S. vaping competition and illicit supply pulling guidance toward caution,
- Modern oral (nicotine pouches) momentum acting as a potential stabilizer and growth engine. [27]
References
1. www.lse.co.uk, 2. www.lse.co.uk, 3. www.lse.co.uk, 4. www.bat.com, 5. www.bat.com, 6. www.bat.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.bat.com, 9. www.bat.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.lse.co.uk, 12. www.bat.com, 13. www.bat.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.marketscreener.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.bat.com, 20. www.bat.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.bat.com, 23. www.bat.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.bat.com, 26. www.bat.com, 27. www.bat.com
