December 15, 2025
British American Tobacco p.l.c. stock is back in focus for income investors and “defensive” equity watchers—because the story is doing that very tobacco-company thing where cash returns look comforting while regulatory and category disruption refuse to be ignored.
As of Monday, Dec. 15, 2025, British American Tobacco (LSE: BATS) traded around 4,268p (£42.68), up on the day, after a volatile stretch driven by BAT’s full-year pre-close update, a fresh £1.3 billion buyback plan for FY2026, and renewed debate over U.S. vaping competition and illicit products. [1]
Below is a complete, publication-ready roundup of today’s (15.12.2025) key BAT stock news, the latest company guidance, dividend timetable, and the freshest analyst takes and price targets circulating in the market.
British American Tobacco share price today: what BATS stock is doing on Dec. 15
On the London Stock Exchange, BATS was quoted at roughly 4,268p, with the session range and bid/ask reflecting typical U.K. quote delays. [2]
For U.S.-based investors following the ADR, British American Tobacco ADR (NYSE: BTI) most recently closed at $57.10 (last available closing print referenced for Dec. 12, 2025). [3]
Two context points investors keep checking:
- 52-week range (London): the stock has traded from roughly 2,838p to 4,426p over the last year. [4]
- Why the price action matters right now: BAT’s latest guidance basically says, “2025 is steady, 2026 improves—but don’t expect fireworks.” That combination tends to move a high-yield stock more than you’d think, because so much of the valuation rests on confidence in forward cash flows.
The big catalyst: BAT’s 2025 full-year pre-close update and its 2026 outlook
BAT’s most market-moving development this month remains its 2025 full-year pre-close trading update (released Dec. 9, 2025), where management reaffirmed its near-term trajectory and sketched what improvement should look like in 2026. [5]
BAT’s FY2025 guideposts: “steady, cash-heavy, FX in the way”
BAT’s technical guidance for FY2025 (on a constant-currency basis) includes:
- Global tobacco industry volume expected to be down ~2%
- Group revenue growth of ~2%
- Adjusted profit from operations growth of ~2% (including an estimated transactional FX headwind)
- Translational FX headwind of roughly ~3% on adjusted profit from operations and ~4% on adjusted diluted EPS
- Net finance costs expected to be around ~£1.8 billion
- Operating cash flow conversion expected to be >95%
- Gross capex of about ~£650 million in 2025 [6]
If you’re wondering why BAT bothers to spell out FX headwinds so explicitly: the company sells globally, reports in pounds, and currency translation can make “stable operations” look like “meh results” (or vice versa) depending on the year. The market tends to price that uncertainty in real time.
New Categories (vaping, modern oral, heated): growth is the point—and the problem
BAT again leaned on New Categories as the growth engine:
- Management pointed to New Category revenue growth accelerating to double-digit in H2, driving mid-single-digit growth for the full year. [7]
- The company also highlighted strong U.S. momentum, supported by combustibles performance and Velo Plus, which BAT said is on track for full-year profitability. [8]
U.S. vaping: illicit competition is still the villain of this episode
BAT has been unusually direct about the U.S. vapour market being distorted by illicit/unregulated product flows. Reuters reported BAT expects 2026 revenue and profit growth to land at the lower end of its medium-term targets in part because of tough U.S. vape competition—even as nicotine pouch demand remains strong. [9]
BAT also told investors that enforcement actions aimed at illicit vapour products are beginning to support improvement for Vuse volume and revenue in the U.S.—encouraging, but not a clean victory lap. [10]
The 2026 forecast: improvement expected, but “lower end” is the phrase investors heard
Here’s the market translation of BAT’s message:
- 2026 should look better than 2025, but management is guiding expectations to the lower end of the company’s medium-term growth ranges. [11]
Hargreaves Lansdown summarized it bluntly: BAT expects 2026 sales and underlying operating profit growth to sit at the bottom end of its medium-term targets, alongside an announced £1.3bn buyback for 2026. [12]
That “lower end” framing matters because BAT’s stock has been treated as a rerating candidate when New Categories momentum looks strong. When management dampens that narrative—even slightly—the share price can react quickly.
Buybacks: BAT keeps buying stock now, and it’s planning £1.3bn more for FY2026
BAT is not shy about returning capital, and today’s news flow includes both the macro and micro view of that.
Today’s buyback news: Transaction in Own Shares (published Dec. 15, 2025)
In an RNS dated Dec. 15, 2025, BAT disclosed a fresh batch of buyback activity:
- 145,000 shares repurchased (purchased on Dec. 12, 2025)
- VWAP:4,302.41p
- High/low paid:4,365.00p / 4,232.00p
- BAT said it intends to cancel the purchased shares
- Post-cancellation share count: 2,180,485,797 shares in issue (excluding treasury), with 132,988,352 held in treasury [13]
Even though 145,000 shares is a tiny slice of BAT’s market cap, the signal matters: buybacks provide a steady bid under the stock, and consistent cancellation supports per-share metrics over time.
The bigger buyback headline: £1.3bn planned for FY2026
BAT’s pre-close update also reiterated a new £1.3 billion share buyback program for FY2026 as part of “balanced capital allocation” alongside deleveraging and dividends. [14]
Dividend outlook: the dates income investors are watching next
BAT’s dividend schedule is unusually structured (quarterly installments) for a U.K.-listed mega-cap, which is one reason global income investors keep it on the radar.
BAT’s dividend page states that the Board declared an interim dividend of 240.24p per ordinary share, payable in four equal quarterly installments of 60.06p, with the final installment landing in February 2026. [15]
Key upcoming dates from the company’s published timetable:
- LSE shares trade ex-dividend:Dec. 29, 2025
- Record date (LSE/NYSE/JSE):Dec. 30, 2025
- Payment date (LSE and JSE):Feb. 4, 2026
- ADS payment date (NYSE):Feb. 9, 2026 [16]
Using the declared annualized dividend figure (240.24p) and today’s London share price (~4,268p), BAT’s implied dividend yield sits around 5.6%, before any taxes, FX conversion (for non-GBP investors), or broker fees.
Analyst ratings and price targets: what’s being published today (Dec. 15)
Analyst coverage on BAT tends to cluster around three arguments:
- Cash generation + buybacks + dividends = strong shareholder yield
- New Categories can offset combustibles decline (eventually)
- Regulatory risk (and illicit competition in vaping) keeps the valuation from expanding too far
Barclays keeps a Buy on BAT
A note published Dec. 15, 2025 indicated Barclays maintained a Buy rating with a target price of 4,900p. [17]
Kepler Cheuvreux initiates with a Buy
Kepler Cheuvreux initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a £49.00 price target, pointing to BAT’s positioning in nicotine, cash flow strength, and its shift toward next-generation products. [18]
Where consensus sits (as aggregated by MarketScreener)
MarketScreener’s aggregation showed a mean consensus “Outperform” with an average target price around £44.88 (i.e., 4,488p) based on the analyst set shown there. [19]
Keep the mental hygiene strong here: consensus targets are not prophecies. They’re a snapshot of what analysts think given current information—which, in tobacco and nicotine, can change fast when regulators sneeze.
Other current BAT news investors are factoring in this week
Governance update: Audit Committee change
BAT announced that Holly Keller Koeppel will step down from the Audit Committee effective Dec. 31, 2025, and published the resulting committee memberships. [20]
This is not typically a price-moving event by itself, but governance changes often get pulled into broader “risk” narratives—especially for globally regulated sectors.
India portfolio move: ITC Hotels stake sale (deleveraging angle)
Last week, Reuters reported BAT sold a 9% stake in ITC Hotels for about 38 billion rupees (~$425 million), reducing its holding to 6.3%, as part of reducing debt and exiting non-strategic investments. [21]
This ties directly into BAT’s own stated goal of moving leverage back into its 2.0–2.5x adjusted net debt/adjusted EBITDA target range by the end of 2026. [22]
Europe lobbying transparency story: reputational and regulatory backdrop
Reuters also covered a report from anti-tobacco groups alleging undisclosed meetings between EU officials and tobacco industry representatives in 2023–2024, naming major firms including BAT. The report criticized how transparency rules are applied, while EU officials defended their disclosure practices. [23]
This isn’t a “tomorrow morning earnings” story—but it’s part of the persistent policy pressure that keeps tobacco equities valued differently from other consumer staples.
The Canada factor: “adjusted” results and what investors should know
One technical detail in BAT’s update is easy to miss but important for interpreting numbers: the company describes certain measures “adjusted for Canada,” reflecting the accounting and cash flow implications following the settlement of Canadian tobacco litigation (with ongoing payments tied to Canadian net income, excluding New Categories, over time). [24]
In plain English: when you compare year-over-year profitability or leverage metrics, you need to note whether figures are being presented with Canada carved out for comparability.
What to watch next: dates and catalysts for BAT stock
Here are the near-term items that can realistically move BAT shares without warning:
- Full Year 2025 Results: BAT’s investor calendar lists the next major event as Feb. 12, 2026 (Full Year 2025 Results). [25]
- Dividend mechanics: the late-December ex-dividend window and early-February payment dates can drive short-term positioning among income funds. [26]
- U.S. enforcement intensity in vaping: BAT’s own messaging makes it clear the speed and seriousness of enforcement against illicit vapour products is a key swing factor for Vuse performance. [27]
- FX and rates: BAT itself flagged expected net finance costs around £1.8bn and meaningful FX translation impacts—an unusually direct reminder that macro conditions still matter for this stock. [28]
Bottom line for Dec. 15, 2025: BAT is selling “stability,” while the market prices “uncertainty”
British American Tobacco stock is doing what it often does at turning points: offering investors a clear capital-return story (dividend + buybacks) while asking them to tolerate messy transition dynamics in nicotine categories, plus the ever-present regulatory overhang.
Today’s news cycle adds three concrete, investor-relevant takeaways:
- Buybacks are active right now (and disclosed today), and the FY2026 buyback plan is sizable. [29]
- BAT’s 2025 guidance is steady, and 2026 is expected to improve—but at the lower end of its medium-term goals. [30]
- Analysts are still broadly constructive, with fresh Buy reiterations/initiations and targets clustering in the high-4,000p/£49 zone, even as debate continues about how quickly New Categories can overcome U.S. vapour disruption. [31]
References
1. www.lse.co.uk, 2. www.lse.co.uk, 3. www.macrotrends.net, 4. www.lse.co.uk, 5. www.bat.com, 6. www.bat.com, 7. www.bat.com, 8. www.bat.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.bat.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.hl.co.uk, 13. www.investegate.co.uk, 14. www.bat.com, 15. www.bat.com, 16. www.bat.com, 17. www.marketscreener.com, 18. uk.investing.com, 19. www.marketscreener.com, 20. www.bat.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.bat.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.bat.com, 25. www.bat.com, 26. www.bat.com, 27. www.bat.com, 28. www.bat.com, 29. www.investegate.co.uk, 30. www.bat.com, 31. www.marketscreener.com
