Broadcom (AVGO) Stock on December 11, 2025: AI Giant Faces Earnings Test, VMware Scrutiny and Sky‑High Expectations

Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) heads into its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings day sitting near all‑time highs, flush with AI demand, and under fresh regulatory fire in Europe. For investors, Broadcom stock is now the purest large‑cap bet on custom AI chips and enterprise software — but also one of the most “priced for perfection” names in the market.

Below is a detailed, news‑driven and forward‑looking look at AVGO as of December 11, 2025, suitable for readers following Google News and Discover.

Broadcom stock today: near records after a massive 2025 rally

As of early U.S. afternoon trading on December 11, 2025, Broadcom shares trade around $399 (intraday range roughly $398–$409), down slightly on the day.

Key stock facts:

Market cap: ~$1.9 trillion, putting Broadcom firmly in the mega‑cap club. ^[1]
52‑week range: about $138.10 to $414.61, with an all‑time closing high of $412.97 on December 10, 2025. ^[2]
Performance: AVGO has more than doubled over the past 12 months (roughly 120–140% total return, depending on the source) and is up around 75–80% year‑to‑date, vastly outpacing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. ^[3]

That blistering rally, plus a 10‑for‑1 stock split in July 2024, has turned AVGO into one of the best‑performing large caps in the market. ^[4]

From a valuation standpoint, multiple recent analyses peg Broadcom at roughly mid‑30s times forward earnings — rich even in AI‑land and a key reason some strategists warn the stock is now “primed for disappointment” after a roughly 180% surge off its April 2025 low. ^[5]

Q4 2025 earnings preview: AI momentum vs. expectations shock

When and what to watch

Broadcom will report fourth‑quarter and full‑year fiscal 2025 results after today’s market close, with a conference call scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Pacific / 5:00 p.m. Eastern. ^[6]

Management has already guided investors to expect:

Q4 revenue of about $17.4 billion, up roughly 24% year‑over‑year. ^[7]
Adjusted EBITDA margin of 67%, matching Q3 levels. ^[8]
AI semiconductor revenue around $6.2 billion in Q4, implying ~19% sequential growth and the 11th consecutive quarter of AI revenue growth. ^[9]

Street expectations cluster very close to that guide. Several consensus sources and previews point to:

Revenue: roughly $17.5 billion, +24% YoY. ^[10]
Adjusted EPS: about $1.87–$1.88, up ~30–32% YoY. ^[11]

Options markets are braced for a big move: current pricing implies AVGO could swing about ±6% after earnings, potentially toward $425 on the upside or $377 on the downside based on Monday’s close. ^[12]

Backdrop: a year of record quarters

Broadcom’s setup into this print is very strong:

Q3 FY25 (reported in September):
- Revenue: $15.95 billion, up 22% YoY.
- AI revenue: $5.2 billion, +63% YoY.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $10.7 billion (67% of revenue).
- Non‑GAAP EPS: $1.69. ^[13]
Q1 and Q2 FY25 already showed high‑teens to mid‑20s revenue growth, with Q2 revenue around $15.0 billion (+20% YoY). ^[14]

The big question for tonight is not whether Broadcom will show growth — that’s basically assumed — but whether management’s AI revenue trajectory, VMware software integration, and 2026 guidance are strong enough to justify the stock’s extraordinary run.

Why investors are so bullish: AI custom chips plus VMware software

Broadcom’s appeal in 2025 comes down to a powerful two‑engine story:

1. AI custom silicon: from Google TPUs to OpenAI’s 10 GW bet

Broadcom isn’t trying to be a general‑purpose GPU vendor. Instead, it dominates the niche of custom AI accelerators and networking for the biggest hyperscalers on earth.

Recent data points:

Google TPUs: Google’s latest Trillium TPU, co‑designed with Broadcom, powers the Gemini 3 models, helping them beat rival systems in key benchmarks. Analysts highlight this as a major driver of TPU demand and a critical pillar of Broadcom’s AI growth. ^[15]
OpenAI deal: In October, OpenAI and Broadcom announced a multi‑year collaboration to deploy 10 gigawatts of OpenAI‑designed AI accelerators using Broadcom’s networking stack. Deployment of racks is expected to start in the second half of 2026 and run through 2029. ^[16]
Customer list and orders: Broadcom’s custom ASIC customers now include Google and Meta, with analysts debating whether Anthropic, xAI and other frontier‑model players are the “mystery” fourth and fifth hyperscalers. Management has disclosed at least $10 billion in XPU (AI rack) orders from a single new customer, expected to ramp in fiscal 2026. ^[17]

On the numbers side, AI is exploding:

Q4 AI revenue guidance of $6.2 billion implies about $19.9 billion in AI revenue for FY25, up 63% from about $12.2 billion in FY24. ^[18]
Mizuho and other analysts expect AI revenue to more than double again to about $40.4 billion in FY26, and potentially reach $78 billion by FY28. ^[19]

That’s why some analysts describe Broadcom as the “silent winner” of the AI monetization supercycle: it doesn’t get GPU‑style headlines, but it quietly captures huge chunks of hyperscaler spending on both compute and networking. ^[20]

2. VMware & infrastructure software: recurring revenue and lock‑in

On the software side, Broadcom’s VMware acquisition (closed in 2023) has turned it into a major force in virtualization, private cloud, and mainframe software.

Key recent developments:

Broadcom has aggressively restructured VMware, focusing on larger enterprise and cloud customers and pushing them toward its VMware Cloud Foundation (VCF) stack. Large banks such as ING have adopted VMware Cloud Foundation 9.0 as a strategic private‑cloud platform, demonstrating VMware’s continued relevance in mission‑critical workloads. ^[21]
Across 2025, the infrastructure software business has been growing double‑digit percentages, contributing roughly 40–45% of total revenue and supporting Broadcom’s unusually high margins. ^[22]

The thesis here: AI + VMware makes Broadcom less cyclical than a pure semiconductor play. Software subscription and maintenance revenues cushion downturns, while AI gives the upside torque.

What Wall Street is saying: targets, ratings and long‑term forecasts

Analysts are almost unanimously positive on AVGO — the disagreement is mainly about how much upside is left at current levels.

Consensus view: Strong Buy, modest average upside

Different data providers show slightly different numbers, but the pattern is clear:

TipRanks:
- Rating: Strong Buy (24 Buys, 2 Holds).
- Average 12‑month price target: $432.18, implying about 7% upside from recent prices. ^[23]
MarketBeat:
- Rating: Buy based on 35 analysts (34 Buys, 1 Hold).
- Average price target: $392.46, actually ~3% below a recent price around $403 — i.e., some analysts think the stock is slightly ahead of itself. ^[24]
StocksGuide (global analyst aggregation):
- 45 analysts; 95% rate Broadcom a Buy.
- Average target: $418.20, about 1–2% above the recent $413 close on December 10. ^[25]

In other words: the direction of the call is overwhelmingly bullish, but after such a massive rally, consensus upside is now single‑digit.

The high‑conviction bulls

Several heavyweight firms are markedly more optimistic:

HSBC: Reiterated a Buy rating with a $535 price target, arguing that Wall Street “undervalues Broadcom’s ASIC upside” for FY26–27 and that management is likely to raise ASIC revenue guidance again at the Q4 call. ^[26]
Rosenblatt Securities: Lifted its target from $400 to $440 on December 9 and kept a Buy rating, citing strong TPU/XPU momentum and networking tailwinds and expecting a Q4 beat. ^[27]
A Barchart analysis notes Susquehanna’s $450 target and forecasts AVGO’s total revenue rising from about $63–65 billion in FY25 to roughly $177 billion by FY29, with free cash flow surging from roughly $30 billion to over $90 billion. In that bullish scenario, Broadcom shares could rise more than 50% over the next three years even on a lower free‑cash‑flow multiple. ^[28]

Several reports also highlight Morningstar’s fair‑value estimate around $365, a bit below the current price, but note that Morningstar still expects AI revenue to double to about $40 billion in FY26, with free‑cash‑flow margins above 40%. ^[29]

Fresh news today: European VMware challenge and AI market nerves

EU antitrust challenge to the VMware deal

The most material non‑earnings headline on December 11 is regulatory:

A major European cloud industry lobby, CISPE — whose associate members include Amazon and Microsoft — told the EU General Court that regulators “failed to properly analyse” the competitive risks of Broadcom’s $69 billion VMware acquisition before clearing it in 2023. ^[30]
CISPE argues that the European Commission committed an “error in law” by not fully assessing the impact on server virtualization software, citing warnings from customers and industry groups. ^[31]
Broadcom has said it strongly disagrees with the allegations, and the Commission has indicated it will defend its decision in court. ^[32]

While this doesn’t unwind the deal, it adds legal and regulatory overhang to a core part of Broadcom’s software strategy and will likely feature in risk sections of future research notes.

“First crack” in the AI chip supercycle?

Macro sentiment around AI is wobbling after a disappointing Oracle earnings report revived AI‑spending‑bubble fears. Several market commentaries now position Broadcom’s report as the next big test for the AI trade.

A recent Direxion analysis sums up the bear case:

Potential AI capex “digestion” in 2026–27 as hyperscalers pause to absorb capacity.
Inventory corrections in non‑AI semis dragging on the rest of the chip complex.
Rising competition from Marvell, Cisco/Inphi, Coherent and others in Ethernet and optics.
High valuation — AVGO trades around 35x forward earnings — with little margin for disappointment.
Heavy customer concentration, with a handful of hyperscalers driving most of AI revenue.
Ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions that could pressure networking and telecom segments. ^[33]

Add in fresh headlines about layoffs in sales and VMware‑related units, and you get a picture of a company that is simultaneously hyper‑profitable and aggressively cost‑cutting, which can be read as either efficiency or a sign management is bracing for future volatility. ^[34]

Key long‑term themes: what the models assume

Behind the 12‑month price targets is a much bigger debate about how large Broadcom can become by the end of the decade.

Several high‑profile forecasts assume:

AI revenue path
- ~$20 billion in AI revenue in FY25.
- ~$40 billion in FY26 (Mizuho, Morningstar).
- Potentially $60–90 billion in AI revenue run‑rate around 2027, matching Hock Tan’s stated “serviceable market” for AI XPUs and networking. ^[35]
Total revenue and free cash flow
- Analyst sets aggregated by Barchart and StocksGuide foresee total revenue rising into the $170–180 billion range by 2029, with free cash flow climbing toward $90–100 billion if AI and software scale as expected. ^[36]
Management incentives
- Hock Tan’s latest performance award pays out fully only if Broadcom generates $90 billion in AI revenue over any four consecutive quarters between FY28 and FY30, with even larger awards if it reaches $105–120+ billion. Investors view that as a public statement of what management thinks is possible in a bull case. ^[37]

These assumptions underpin the argument that AVGO’s current valuation, while expensive, could be justified if AI demand and networking requirements scale the way Broadcom and its hyperscaler customers expect.

Main risks: what could go wrong for AVGO stock

Even the bulls concede that Broadcom’s current setup comes with meaningful risks:

Execution risk in AI
- The company must deliver on an extremely ambitious AI revenue ramp (to $40+ billion in FY26 and beyond) while scaling complex custom hardware programs with Google, OpenAI and others. Any stumbles in timelines, yields, or cost could hit margins and sentiment hard. ^[38]
Customer concentration and in‑house chip designs
- Google is reportedly investigating designing future AI chips more independently, which could eventually reduce Broadcom’s share of that business. Analysts at Bank of America and Morgan Stanley highlight this as a major long‑term risk. ^[39]
VMware backlash and regulation
- EU scrutiny via the CISPE case, combined with complaints from some cloud providers about VMware licensing and pricing changes, could force Broadcom to adjust its software strategy or accept restrictions in Europe. ^[40]
Valuation and sentiment risk
- After a 120%+ 12‑month run and 180% off the April lows, AVGO is one earnings miss or guidance cut away from a sharp re‑rating. Several pieces — including from Bloomberg and Direxion — explicitly warn the stock may be “primed for disappointment” if AI growth or VMware synergies underwhelm. ^[41]
Macro and AI‑capex cycle risk
- If hyperscalers slow capital spending after the current build‑out, Broadcom’s AI growth could decelerate sharply just as expectations peak.

So is Broadcom stock a buy, hold, or sell now?

Different research shops frame the answer differently, but the contours are similar:

Short‑term (next few days/weeks)
- This evening’s Q4 report is a binary-ish sentiment event: options markets are pricing a ~6% move, and many see Broadcom as the next big litmus test for the AI trade after Oracle’s wobble. A clean beat paired with strong AI and OpenAI‑/hyperscaler‑focused guidance could push shares to fresh highs; any hint of AI slowdown, VMware pushback, or margin compression could trigger a sharp pullback. ^[42]
Medium term (2026–2027)
- Bullish theses rest on AI revenue doubling again to around $40 billion in FY26, continued strength in high‑margin software, and the OpenAI 10‑gigawatt deployment ramping from 2026 onwards. In that world, many of the more aggressive price targets in the $440–$535+ range become plausible. ^[43]
Bearish / cautious view
- Skeptics note that consensus 12‑month targets now imply only single‑digit upside on average, while forecasts baking in $170B+ of 2029 revenue and $90B+ of FCF leave little room for execution errors. They also worry that AI capex could normalize just as Broadcom’s biggest public deals (like OpenAI’s 10 GW project) are still ramping. ^[44]

What’s hard to debate is that Broadcom has become one of the central tickers for the AI infrastructure story. Whether you view AVGO here as a fully priced champion or a still‑underestimated compounding machine, the combination of tonight’s earnings, the OpenAI collaboration, and the EU VMware case makes December 11, 2025 a pivotal checkpoint for the stock.