Broadcom (AVGO) Stock on December 4, 2025: AI Supercycle, VMware Shake‑Up and the Q4 Earnings Countdown

Published: December 4, 2025

Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) remains one of the most closely watched names in the AI and cloud infrastructure trade. As of mid‑day on December 4, 2025, the stock is trading just below record highs, with investors trying to balance blockbuster AI chip deals, an aggressive VMware software pivot and a high‑stakes earnings report coming on December 11.

Today’s trade comes after a year in which Broadcom shares have more than doubled, pushing the company’s market capitalization to around $1.8 trillion and cementing its status as a core holding in many AI‑focused portfolios. ^[1]

This article rounds up the latest news, forecasts and analyses as of December 4, 2025, to help readers understand what’s driving AVGO right now.

Broadcom stock today: just under record highs, with a premium valuation

At the time of writing, Broadcom shares trade around $380.61, down only a fraction (about 0.25%) on the day.

Key snapshot metrics from recent filings and market data:

12‑month range: roughly $138 to $403, leaving the stock only a few percent below its all‑time high. ^[2]
Market cap: about $1.80 trillion. ^[3]
Valuation: trailing P/E near 97 and price‑to‑earnings‑growth (PEG) ratio around 1.3, well above typical semiconductor peers. ^[4]
Balance sheet & liquidity: quick ratio ~1.37, current ratio ~1.50, debt‑to‑equity ~0.86. ^[5]
Ownership: insiders hold just over 2% of shares, while institutions control nearly 80%. ^[6]

Over the last 12 months, Broadcom’s share price has climbed more than 120%, with one quantitative service estimating a 126% gain over that period. ^[7] That rally reflects two big storylines:

The AI infrastructure “supercycle”, including custom chips for hyperscalers like Google and OpenAI.
The ongoing transformation of VMware into a recurring‑revenue, high‑margin software engine inside Broadcom.

At the same time, that run‑up is exactly why many analysts now flag valuation risk if growth or AI spending shows any sign of cooling. ^[8]

Fresh drivers on December 4: AI deals, Google TPUs and a $10B chip order

Several pieces of news and analysis published today or in recent days are shaping sentiment around AVGO.

1. BofA pushes price target to $460 on Google TPU momentum

A December 4 analysis highlighted that Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya recently raised Broadcom’s price target from $400 to $460 and reiterated a Buy rating. ^[9]

Key points from that note:

Broadcom is seen as a key design partner in Google’s Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) ecosystem. ^[10]
Google’s latest Gemini models are described as being trained entirely on TPUs co‑designed with Broadcom, underlining Broadcom’s role as critical AI infrastructure rather than a consumer GPU vendor. ^[11]
BofA estimates current Broadcom AI accelerators for Google TPUs sell for roughly $5,000–$6,000 per unit, with around 2 million units expected in 2025. That could climb to $12,000–$15,000 per unit and more than 3 million units in 2026, if demand ramps as forecast. ^[12]

Even though BofA modestly trims gross margin assumptions because AI compute and ASIC products are lower‑margin than some legacy lines, the overall earnings outlook remains largely intact in its model. ^[13]

2. Q4 “big test” preview: record backlog and AI growth streak

An in‑depth Q4 preview published today by IG describes Broadcom heading into earnings with: ^[14]

A record backlog of around $110 billion tied to AI and infrastructure orders.
A 10‑quarter streak of AI revenue growth that investors now treat as a given.
The challenge of converting a huge $10 billion order from a “fourth customer” for data‑center AI chips into sustained revenue and margins. ^[15]

The author stresses that, with the stock trading near ~96× trailing earnings, expectations are extremely high; even solid numbers could disappoint if commentary around AI spending or VMware margins turns cautious. ^[16]

3. OpenAI–Broadcom custom chip deal reinforces multi‑year AI story

Broadcom’s AI narrative is increasingly tied to its custom chip relationships with OpenAI:

In September and October 2025, Reuters and OpenAI announced that OpenAI will build its first in‑house AI processors with Broadcom, and that the two companies agreed on a collaboration for 10 gigawatts of custom AI accelerators. ^[17]
Reuters also reported that Broadcom shares jumped roughly 15% after unveiling a $10 billion AI chip order from a new customer, widely associated with this OpenAI deal. ^[18]

More recently, Reuters highlighted Thor Ultra, a new Broadcom networking chip designed to interconnect hundreds of thousands of AI accelerators with double the bandwidth of its predecessor—another pillar of the company’s AI infrastructure offering. ^[19]

Taken together, these developments underpin bullish analyst models that see Broadcom’s AI‑related revenue reaching $60–90 billion by 2027, up from about $12.2 billion in fiscal 2024. ^[20]

4. Short‑term wobble: December 3 pullback amid AI‑sector jitters

Despite the big AI narrative, AVGO did slip slightly on December 3 after reports that a major AI adopter was pulling back from aggressively marketing AI‑enhanced products, putting pressure on AI‑linked names broadly. ^[21]

Several outlets described Broadcom’s decline as modest—around 0.3% on a day when the broader S&P 500 rose—framing it more as profit‑taking after a huge run than a fundamental reset. ^[22]

Earnings and growth outlook: what the Street expects on December 11

Broadcom will report fourth‑quarter and full‑year fiscal 2025 results on Thursday, December 11, 2025, after the market close, followed by a conference call at 2:00 p.m. Pacific / 5:00 p.m. Eastern. ^[23]

Most recent reported quarter

In its most recently reported quarter (fiscal Q3 2025), Broadcom delivered: ^[24]

Revenue around $15.95–$16.0 billion, up 22% year over year.
Adjusted EPS of about $1.69, slightly ahead of consensus estimates near $1.66.
A net margin of roughly 31.6% and return on equity around 36.6%.

Analysts surveyed by MarketBeat expect full‑year 2025 EPS around 5.38, underscoring Broadcom’s rapid earnings growth despite its massive size. ^[25]

Q4 2025 consensus: AI chips in the spotlight

Multiple research aggregators and industry analyses point to similar expectations for Q4 FY2025: TechStock²+1

Total revenue: ~$17.4 billion, up roughly 24% year over year.
Semiconductor revenue: about $10.7 billion, up ~30%.
AI semiconductor revenue: about $6.2 billion, implying ~66% growth.
Infrastructure software (mainly VMware): around $6.7 billion, up roughly 15%.
Adjusted EBITDA margin: management has guided to about 67%.

Several outlets note that Wall Street models around 39% profit growth in both 2025 and 2026, making AVGO one of the fastest‑growing mega‑caps in the current AI cycle. TechStock²+1

However, a widely‑shared analysis from The Motley Fool stresses that management has already signaled AI revenue could grow even faster than the previously cited 50–60% year‑over‑year pace, raising both expectations and the risk of disappointment if growth normalizes. ^[26]

VMware and software: higher margins, higher controversy

Broadcom’s $69 billion acquisition of VMware in 2023 has fundamentally reshaped the company. By late 2025: TechStock²+1

Infrastructure software (dominated by VMware) contributes roughly 40–43% of total revenue, with higher margins than the semiconductor segment.
VMware Cloud Foundation (VCF) 9.0 is positioned as a flagship private‑cloud platform for regulated industries and on‑prem AI workloads.

Product simplification and licensing changes

On December 1, 2025, Broadcom implemented another major simplification of the VMware portfolio, reducing the core offer effectively to just: ^[27]

VMware vSphere Standard, and
VMware Cloud Foundation (VCF).

A widely shared partner write‑up notes that:

VCF now bundles technologies such as vSphere, vCenter, NSX, vSAN and key management tools into a single, full‑stack private‑cloud platform. ^[28]
Licensing is subscription‑based and sold per CPU core, with a minimum purchase of 72 cores and a 512‑core cap for vSphere Standard—pushing larger deployments toward VCF. ^[29]

Channel advisors and distributors have cautioned that these changes, combined with previous price increases and partner‑program restructuring, can sharply raise costs for some existing VMware customers and may push smaller environments to reconsider alternatives. ^[30]

Partner program overhaul: “Advantage” and VCF 9.0 adoption

On December 3, 2025, Broadcom published details of an expanded Advantage Partner Program, explicitly linking partner rewards to VCF adoption and technical depth. ^[31]

Key elements include:

A points‑based, value‑driven tiering that measures not just sales but also certifications, architecture skills and services capability.
Higher discounts and rebates for partners that lead full lifecycle engagements—from design to deployment and ongoing optimization—rather than just transacting licenses. ^[32]
A strong emphasis on VCF 9.x certifications (with deadlines into April 2026) and Expert Advantage services credentials, clearly steering the ecosystem to treat VMware as a platform, not a one‑off product sale. ^[33]

At the same time, Broadcom is publicizing customer‑wins like ING’s decision to adopt VCF 9.0 as a strategic private‑cloud platform, highlighting traction with large financial institutions. ^[34]

Customer and regulatory pushback

Not all feedback is positive. European IT trade publications and research firms have reported: TechStock²

Steep effective price increases—sometimes cited as high as 10–15× for certain licensing scenarios—under Broadcom’s new VMware subscription model.
Backlash from traditional VMware resellers affected by partner‑program changes, opening the door for competitors such as Nutanix or Microsoft in disaffected accounts.
Regulatory interest in Europe regarding whether Broadcom’s post‑merger practices may be anti‑competitive.

For AVGO shareholders, VMware is clearly a double‑edged sword: it boosts high‑margin recurring revenue, but it also introduces reputational and regulatory risk if customers or watchdogs push back too hard.

How Wall Street rates AVGO now

Despite valuation concerns, the sell‑side remains overwhelmingly positive on Broadcom.

Analyst ratings and price targets

Recent data from several aggregators shows: MarketBeat+3TechStock²+3TipRanks+3

TipRanks:
- 29 Buys, 2 Holds, no Sells → “Strong Buy” consensus.
- Average 12‑month price target around $409, implying mid‑single‑digit upside from current levels.
MarketBeat / MarketWatch:
- Around 35+ Buy‑equivalent ratings and just one Hold.
- Average target near $383, with a range roughly $210 to $472—some models still lag the stock’s rapid move up.
Big‑bank targets (recent updates):
- Morgan Stanley: target lifted to about $443, Overweight.
- UBS: target in the $472 area, bullish on custom AI chips and networking.
- Bank of America:$460 target tied to TPU and OpenAI upside. TechStock²+2Insider Monkey+2

Analyst commentary consistently frames Broadcom as a core AI infrastructure winner with strong earnings momentum—but many also acknowledge that, after such a large rally, implied 12‑month upside is slimmer than it used to be unless growth or margins surpass already lofty expectations. TechStock²+1

Quant and technical forecasts: what the models are saying

Alongside traditional analyst research, quantitative and technical‑analysis services updated their AVGO forecasts today.

Algorithmic price targets

According to CoinCodex (updated December 4, 2025 at ~13:06 GMT): ^[35]

Current price: $380.61.
5‑day forecast: up to roughly $387.5 at the high, about 1.8% above today’s level.
1‑month forecast: about $409.13, or ~7.5% upside.
Full‑year 2025 trading range: between about $380.61 and $411.42, with an average near $399.80, implying an 8% return relative to today.
1‑year model forecast: around $375.54, actually slightly below current levels, and a 2030 estimate closer to $325, reflecting expectations of future mean reversion.

Their system classifies AVGO’s short‑term sentiment as “neutral”, with 14 technical indicators flashing bullish and 12 bearish, and a Fear & Greed reading of 39 (“fear”) even as the stock sits near highs. Over the last month, the stock logged 15 green days out of 30 with about 4.8% volatility. ^[36]

These are purely model‑driven projections, not fundamental valuations, but they hint at a market that has already priced in a lot of good news.

Technical picture

Other technical write‑ups referenced in recent analyses describe: TechStock²+1

AVGO breaking out of a cup‑shaped base, reaching new highs around $403, and then pulling back toward prior breakout levels.
Longer‑term moving averages trending upward, with the price still well above its 200‑day average, suggesting an ongoing uptrend despite near‑term volatility.

For short‑term traders, that backdrop often translates into a “buy‑the‑dip but expect turbulence” approach—especially with a major earnings catalyst just days away.

Institutional flows and insider activity

Institutional and insider data reinforce the idea that AVGO is a high‑conviction institutional name but also a place where some investors are taking profits after a huge run.

Recent MarketBeat filings and summaries show: ^[37]

Large firms such as Baird Financial Group have boosted their stakes in Broadcom, while others like Great Diamond Partners have trimmed positions—typical behavior after a strong rally.
Smaller wealth advisors, including EverSource Wealth Advisors, have initiated or increased holdings, indicating ongoing interest among high‑net‑worth and advisory clients.
Over the last three months, insiders collectively sold more than 600,000 shares (over $200 million in value) while buying only a few thousand shares, though insiders still own about 2% of the company.
Total institutional ownership sits around 76–80%, underscoring how tightly held the stock is by professional investors.

These flows suggest healthy churn rather than a mass exodus: some investors are locking in gains, while others view pullbacks as opportunities to build positions.

Key risks investors are watching

Even bullish commentary on Broadcom now usually includes a long list of risks:

Valuation and execution risk
- With a P/E near 97 and many discounted‑cash‑flow and relative‑valuation models flagging AVGO as expensive, any disappointment in AI growth, hyperscaler capex, or VMware profitability could trigger a sharp de‑rating. ^[38]
Customer concentration
- A significant share of Broadcom’s AI revenue is tied to a handful of hyperscalers and AI labs—notably Google and OpenAI, plus a small number of other cloud giants. Analysts warn that if any of these customers slow spending, insource more designs, or diversify suppliers, Broadcom could feel it quickly. TechStock²+2Reuters+2
Intense competition in AI chips and networking
- Broadcom is going head‑to‑head with Nvidia, AMD, Marvell and others for AI data‑center dollars. Recent deals by rivals, such as Marvell’s acquisition of photonics startup Celestial AI, highlight how crowded the field is becoming. ^[39]
VMware backlash and regulatory scrutiny
- The VMware integration has brought price hikes, product simplification and partner program changes that have frustrated some customers and resellers, particularly in Europe. Those tensions raise the risk of customer churn and regulatory intervention. TechStock²+2Boxxe+2
Macro and AI‑cycle risk
- Several strategists, including at Bank of America, have floated the possibility of an “AI air pocket” in 2026—an interval where spending and enthusiasm temporarily cool. If that happens, high‑multiple names like Broadcom could be disproportionately affected. TechStock²+2intelisys.com+2

What to watch next

Between now and the December 11 earnings release, the AVGO story will revolve around a few critical questions:

Can AI revenue match or beat the ~66% growth that analysts expect for Q4? TechStock²+1
Does Broadcom update its AI total‑addressable‑market (TAM) or backlog figures, especially around the OpenAI and Google relationships? ^[40]
How fast can non‑AI semiconductor segments recover, and does that recovery offset any future normalization in AI demand? TechStock²+1
Is VMware Cloud Foundation 9.0 gaining enough traction, as illustrated by deals like ING, to justify Broadcom’s aggressive software strategy despite pricing controversies? ^[41]
Does management’s 2026 guidance support the premium multiple, or does it signal a more moderate growth path after the initial AI surge? TechStock²+1

For now, the consensus narrative across today’s news, forecasts and analyses is clear:

Broadcom sits at the center of the AI infrastructure build‑out, with powerful tailwinds from custom chips and data‑center networking.
VMware and the broader software portfolio are evolving into a high‑margin, recurring‑revenue engine, but with meaningful customer, channel and regulatory risks.
The stock price already reflects years of strong execution, leaving a narrower margin for error as valuations stretch and AI expectations soar.

Final note

This article is intended solely for informational and news purposes and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Markets are volatile, forecasts can change quickly, and any investment decision should be based on your own research and, ideally, guidance from a qualified financial adviser.

If you’re following Broadcom through Google News or Discover, expect December 11, 2025 to be the next major inflection point for the AVGO story.