Updated: December 12, 2025
(SEO): Broadcom (AVGO) stock dropped sharply after earnings despite strong revenue growth and a $73B AI backlog. Here’s what drove the move this week and what investors are watching next week.
Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) delivered a classic “beat-and-raise… but sell the news” moment this week. The company posted record quarterly revenue, lifted near-term guidance, and highlighted surging AI demand—yet its shares fell about 11% on Friday, Dec. 12, as Wall Street zeroed in on a less-celebrated detail: profitability pressure tied to the mix shift toward AI systems and custom silicon. [1]
The reaction didn’t stay contained to one ticker. Broadcom’s post-earnings drop fed into broader “AI trade” anxiety that hit chips and high-growth tech shares into the end of the week. [2]
Below is a detailed, publication-ready breakdown of what moved Broadcom stock this week, the key headlines and analyst debates now driving AVGO, and a week-ahead checklist of the catalysts investors are watching.
What happened to Broadcom stock this week
1) The setup: sky-high expectations into earnings
Broadcom entered earnings season as one of the market’s most crowded AI infrastructure trades. By Thursday’s close, the stock was up about 75% year-to-date, boosted by enthusiasm around custom AI accelerators and AI networking demand. [3]
That strong run mattered—because when a stock is priced for perfection, a good quarter can still disappoint.
2) Thursday (Dec. 11): Broadcom reports record revenue and raises guidance
Broadcom reported Q4 revenue of $18.015 billion (+28% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $1.95, along with Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of about $19.1 billion (+28% YoY). [4]
The company also emphasized that AI momentum remains strong. Management said AI semiconductor revenue grew 74% YoY in Q4, and the company expects AI semiconductor revenue to double YoY to $8.2 billion in Q1. [5]
3) Friday (Dec. 12): the stock drops hard anyway
Despite those headline beats, Broadcom shares slid roughly 11% on Dec. 12 (with many reports placing the stock near $360), marking its sharpest one-day decline in months. [6]
This drop also weighed on major indexes and the semiconductor complex as investors reassessed AI spending and AI profitability. [7]
Earnings recap: the numbers that mattered most to investors
Broadcom’s report had two very different stories: excellent growth, and a margin narrative that spooked the market.
Growth highlights (hard numbers)
From Broadcom’s Q4 / FY2025 release carried by PR Newswire:
- Q4 revenue:$18.015B (+28% YoY) [8]
- Q4 free cash flow:$7.466B (about 41% of revenue) [9]
- FY2025 revenue:$63.887B (+24% YoY) [10]
- FY2025 free cash flow:$26.914B [11]
- Q4 segment revenue: Semiconductor solutions $11.072B; Infrastructure software $6.943B [12]
- FY2025 segment revenue: Semiconductor solutions $36.858B; Infrastructure software $27.029B [13]
Broadcom also raised its quarterly dividend 10% to $0.65, payable Dec. 31, 2025 to shareholders of record Dec. 22, 2025. [14]
The “catch”: margins and mix
On the earnings call, Broadcom’s CFO warned that first-quarter consolidated gross margin is expected to be down about 100 basis points sequentially, “primarily reflecting a higher mix of AI revenue.” [15]
That single detail was enough to flip the narrative from “AI is booming” to “AI is booming… but is it diluting profitability?”
Why Broadcom stock fell after strong earnings
Broadcom’s sell-off wasn’t about demand collapsing. It was more about how investors are now scoring AI winners: not just on revenue growth, but on visibility, customer concentration, and margins.
1) AI growth is strong—yet investors are fixated on profitability
Broadcom forecast AI-related revenue of $8.2B in the current quarter versus $6.5B in the prior quarter, but the market focused on the margin implication of that ramp. [16]
Investopedia summarized the dynamic bluntly: investors didn’t like hearing that higher AI sales could be a drag on profitability—especially in a market increasingly sensitive to the “AI bubble” narrative. [17]
2) The AI backlog impressed—yet also raised new questions
Broadcom highlighted an AI product backlog of $73 billion expected to ship over about 18 months. [18]
But analysts and investors also worried about customer concentration and the increasing mix of system-level sales, which can involve higher pass-through costs and lower margins. [19]
3) “Mystery customer” drama added uncertainty
Broadcom disclosed a $1 billion order tied to a newly added fifth XPU customer, with delivery slated for late 2026—yet management did not name the customer. [20]
That ambiguity fueled speculation and confusion around whether the order relates to OpenAI (and if not, who it might be), adding volatility at exactly the wrong time for sentiment. [21]
The $73B AI backlog: what it includes (and why it’s controversial)
The backlog headline is huge, but the composition is what matters for valuation.
- Broadcom said its AI-related orders for XPU plus networking components are in excess of $73B, nearly half of its total consolidated backlog of $162B, and it expects the AI backlog to be delivered over the next 18 months. [22]
- The company also described AI networking strength, including AI switch orders exceeding $10B, citing demand for its Tomahawk 6 switch and related optical and PCIe connectivity components. [23]
- Investors.com reported the backlog includes more than $50B in custom AI chips, with the remainder in networking products. [24]
Why investors still hesitated: Reuters noted the backlog is tied to only a handful of customers and includes systems that may carry lower gross margins. [25]
OpenAI and Anthropic: the key AI partnerships behind the headlines
OpenAI: a 10-gigawatt collaboration with a longer timeline
OpenAI and Broadcom announced (Oct. 13, 2025) a collaboration to deploy 10 gigawatts of custom AI accelerators, with Broadcom targeting deployments starting in the second half of 2026 and completing by end of 2029. [26]
That matters because some investors expected the OpenAI relationship to show up more clearly in near-term backlog and guidance. MarketWatch reported investor concerns that the disclosed backlog did not include anticipated contributions from the OpenAI partnership timeline. [27]
Anthropic: big disclosed orders (and a big signal for custom silicon)
CIO Dive reported that Broadcom:
- previously disclosed a $10B AI semiconductor deal (identified as Anthropic), and
- received an additional $11B order from the same customer for delivery in late 2026. [28]
These are the kinds of multibillion-dollar commitments that support Broadcom’s claim that custom silicon demand is not a one-quarter phenomenon.
VMware and infrastructure software: still growing, but not risk-free
Broadcom’s VMware-driven software unit remains a major pillar of the investment case.
- Broadcom’s infrastructure software revenue was $6.943B in Q4 (up 19% YoY) and $27.029B in FY2025 (up 26% YoY). [29]
- CIO Dive reported management attributed software growth to strong adoption of VMware Cloud Foundation, with infrastructure software accounting for 42% of FY2025 revenue. [30]
Recent VMware ecosystem developments that investors are tracking:
- Broadcom expanded VMware Modernization Services to EMEA SMEs, partnering with TD SYNNEX and others to accelerate private cloud adoption. [31]
- VMware also highlighted December 2025 updates to VMware Cloud on AWS (UI updates, scale-down improvements, new APIs), pointing to an ongoing product cadence post-acquisition. [32]
Risk note: VMware licensing and customer friction remain a potential overhang. In November, Reuters reported Fidelity sued Broadcom over alleged threats to cut off access to VMware software, underscoring ongoing contract and customer tensions tied to Broadcom’s post-acquisition packaging changes. [33]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: bullish, but with a margin asterisk
Even after the sell-off, Wall Street commentary this week leaned more “constructively cautious” than outright bearish.
What consensus data is pointing to
MarketBeat’s compiled view (as displayed Dec. 12) showed:
- Consensus rating: Buy (33 analyst ratings)
- Average 12-month price target:$435.85 (with a high of $500 and low of $300) [34]
What changed after earnings
Analyst notes published and aggregated on major financial outlets show a pattern:
- Targets being raised into the $450–$500 zone,
- while analysts debate how much gross margin dilution to assume as AI systems become a larger share of sales. [35]
For example:
- Investing.com reported Rosenblatt raised its price target to $450, while describing the shift toward system-level AI relationships as potentially lower margin. [36]
- Benzinga’s analyst rating page shows multiple Dec. 12 target increases (including raises from Citi, Barclays, JPMorgan, and BofA Securities). [37]
- Investopedia reported Bank of America and Deutsche Bank adjusted margin assumptions downward but still raised earnings estimates and price targets due to revenue growth expectations. [38]
Bottom line: Analysts largely still like the long-term AI infrastructure opportunity—but the stock’s near-term path may hinge on whether Broadcom can prove AI scale can grow without a sustained erosion in profitability.
Week ahead: what to watch for Broadcom (AVGO) stock
With earnings now out, Broadcom’s “week ahead” setup is about digesting the new information—especially the margin and backlog debate—while watching the broader AI trade.
1) Post-earnings analyst revisions and “second-day” narratives
After a large single-day move, investors often watch for:
- follow-on price target revisions,
- clarifications about customer mix,
- and how the buy-side interprets backlog vs. revenue timing.
The “mystery customer” theme could continue to drive headlines and short-term volatility. [39]
2) Margin commentary becomes the core debate
Broadcom has now explicitly guided to a ~100 bps sequential gross margin decline driven by AI mix. [40]
In the week ahead, traders will likely pressure-test whether:
- this is a near-term trough,
- or the start of a multi-quarter margin reset as rack/system sales scale.
3) AI spending sentiment across tech (Broadcom is now a bellwether)
Broadcom’s move helped re-ignite “AI bubble” concerns across Wall Street, with commentary about profitability and infrastructure timing weighing on other AI-linked names too. [41]
If broader AI infrastructure sentiment weakens, AVGO may trade less on its own fundamentals and more as a proxy for the AI hardware cycle.
4) AI networking adoption signals
Broadcom’s networking narrative is increasingly important—not just accelerators. Recent examples include HPE’s announcement of rack-scale AI architecture using Broadcom’s Tomahawk 6 networking chip and an open Ethernet-based standard. [42]
Any new signals that Ethernet-based AI scale-up is gaining traction can support the “AI networking” leg of the thesis.
5) Dividend calendar (late December catalyst)
Broadcom’s board approved a $0.65 quarterly dividend payable Dec. 31, with a shareholder record date of Dec. 22. [43]
While not the primary driver of AVGO, dividend timing can influence flows and positioning into year-end.
The takeaway for investors following Broadcom stock
This week didn’t undermine the central growth story: Broadcom is printing record revenue and positioning itself as a core supplier to next-generation AI infrastructure. [44]
But the market’s reaction made something clear: the next phase of the AI trade is shifting from “how fast can you grow?” to “how profitably can you scale?”—and Broadcom is now at the center of that debate. [45]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
Quick FAQ (SEO)
Why did Broadcom (AVGO) stock drop after earnings?
Because management warned of a gross margin decline (~100 bps sequentially) due to a higher mix of AI revenue and system-level sales—raising concerns about profitability even as AI demand accelerates. [46]
What is Broadcom’s AI backlog?
Broadcom described an AI-related backlog of more than $73B expected to be delivered over roughly 18 months, spanning XPU/custom silicon and AI networking components. [47]
What’s the latest on the OpenAI–Broadcom partnership?
OpenAI and Broadcom announced a collaboration for 10 gigawatts of custom AI accelerators, with deployments targeted to start in the second half of 2026 and run through 2029. [48]
References
1. www.barrons.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.investopedia.com, 4. www.prnewswire.com, 5. www.prnewswire.com, 6. www.barrons.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.prnewswire.com, 9. www.prnewswire.com, 10. www.prnewswire.com, 11. www.prnewswire.com, 12. www.prnewswire.com, 13. www.prnewswire.com, 14. www.prnewswire.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.investopedia.com, 17. www.investopedia.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.crn.com, 21. www.marketwatch.com, 22. www.crn.com, 23. www.crn.com, 24. www.investors.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. openai.com, 27. www.marketwatch.com, 28. www.ciodive.com, 29. www.prnewswire.com, 30. www.ciodive.com, 31. news.broadcom.com, 32. blogs.vmware.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.marketbeat.com, 35. www.investing.com, 36. www.investing.com, 37. www.benzinga.com, 38. www.investopedia.com, 39. www.barrons.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.wsj.com, 42. www.hpe.com, 43. www.prnewswire.com, 44. www.prnewswire.com, 45. www.reuters.com, 46. www.reuters.com, 47. www.crn.com, 48. openai.com
