Buenos Aires, Feb 28, 2026, 06:20 ART — Market closed.
- Friday saw the S&P Merval slide 4.1%, wrapping up the week down roughly 8%.
- After markets closed, the Senate gave final approval to the Milei-backed labor reform. Monday will put it to its first test.
- March inflation figures are up next on traders’ radar, likely the key local trigger.
Argentina’s S&P Merval index dropped 4.1% on Friday, ending the session at 2,642,105.5 points and wrapping up the week with an 8% slide. February didn’t offer much relief either; the index shed around 17.4% in pesos for the month, using January’s final close as a reference.
Traders will have a new political headline to weigh at the open. Argentina’s Senate pushed President Javier Milei’s labor reform through to final approval late Friday, clearing a key hurdle after weeks marked by heated debate and street protests.
Why this is hitting now: the vote came in after Buenos Aires wrapped for the day, leaving traders without a straightforward way to price it in. For investors, this law has become a barometer for Milei’s ability to drive his bigger agenda through Congress. The selloff in local stocks has only added to the choppiness, making positioning more volatile.
Global risk appetite remains tepid. On Friday, world equities slipped, with investors contending with lofty valuations and the disorienting impact of AI, while geopolitical frictions drove oil prices higher. That combination has made life tougher for riskier pockets of emerging markets.
Labor reform plans would loosen rules around hiring and work hours, opening the door to 12-hour shifts instead of the traditional eight. Another controversial piece: employers would start paying into a new severance fund, redirecting money now set aside for the national pension system. Critics warn that move could drain pension resources.
Details like these are important for listed companies. With a severance fund, lump-sum payouts on layoffs get swapped for a pooled setup. That alters both firing costs and cash-flow timing. Investors are eyeing how quickly companies adjust, plus any legal battles that surface.
Some foreign investors see the reform as progress toward making Argentina more investable, albeit with caveats. “The labor legislation is ‘a big deal,’” said Benjamin Gedan, director of the Latin America program at the Stimson Center, in comments cited by Barron’s. Barron’s
The risk sits squarely beside the bull case. Unions have already proven their ability to mobilize. Any attempt to tweak strike rules or use pension-linked funds? That could stiffen opposition and drag out implementation—even if the law clears.
Argentina’s February CPI lands March 12, per the INDEC calendar, and traders aren’t missing it. The focus: signs of disinflation and any clues about where domestic rates or the peso could be headed.
Trading resumes Monday, March 2. The first thing traders will be watching: fallout from the labor reform vote. After that, attention shifts to the March 12 inflation figure—numbers like that can flip the script in Buenos Aires in a hurry.
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