London, Feb 28, 2026, 10:53 GMT — The market has closed.
- The U.S. and Israel hit Iran with strikes on Saturday, stoking fresh worries about a wider flare-up in the Gulf.
- Brent finished Friday at $72.48 a barrel, jumping 2.45%. WTI wrapped up the day at $67.02, a gain of 2.78%.
- Barclays flagged the possibility of Brent climbing to roughly $80 should supply hiccups emerge. OPEC+ is set for a Sunday meeting to decide on April output levels.
Oil traders face a fresh round of Middle East tension as U.S. and Israeli forces hit Iran on Saturday. Now, attention snaps to whether the conflict will disrupt crude flows or threaten vital shipping lanes.
Brent crude climbed $1.73 to settle at $72.48 a barrel on Friday, a 2.45% gain. U.S. West Texas Intermediate ended the session $1.81 higher at $67.02, up 2.78%. “Uncertainty prevails,” noted Tamas Varga of PVM. DBS’s Suvro Sarkar pegged the geopolitical “risk premium”—the added cost traders factor in for possible supply shocks—at roughly $8 to $10 per barrel. Reuters
The Strait of Hormuz remains the key choke point, funneling close to a fifth of global oil consumption through its narrow channel. On average last year, upwards of 20 million barrels a day—crude, condensate and fuels—flowed through, according to Vortexa data.
Barclays flagged a scenario where Brent climbs to roughly $80 per barrel if significant supply goes offline, saying a disruption of 1 million barrels per day alone would upend the current narrative of oversupply later this year. The bank also cautioned that if shipments remain uninterrupted, any risk premium could evaporate fast—potentially shaving $3 to $5 off prices.
This month’s Reuters survey of 34 economists and analysts landed the 2026 Brent average at $63.85 a barrel, with U.S. crude just behind at $60.38. Respondents estimated current war risk is adding somewhere between $4 and $10 per barrel. “Oil prices are bloated,” said Julius Baer’s Norbert Rucker. At Hamburg Commercial Bank, Cyrus De La Rubia flagged a possible surplus later in the year if China dials back its strategic stockpiling. Reuters
Supply policy might keep a lid on surges. Two sources familiar with the discussions said OPEC+—which counts Russia among its ranks—could weigh a bigger output hike for April as eight members gather on Sunday.
Traders start with the basics—watching tanker movements, loading schedules, or hints of Iranian export or Gulf infrastructure trouble. Even before supply actually tightens, headlines about Gulf retaliation can send prices moving.
Keep an eye on the curve. If the time spread widens, and the gap grows between near-dated and deferred oil contracts, that points to refiners and traders willing to pay more for immediate barrels—this isn’t just about hedging anymore.
The risk stands out. Should the strikes fail to restrict supply and more barrels hit the market, crude could quickly lose its war premium, shifting pricing back to inventories, demand, and potential oversupply.
Sunday, March 1 is on deck, bringing OPEC+ output guidance. After that, Brent and WTI reopen for trading. Traders are keeping an eye on possible official actions that could endanger the Strait of Hormuz or prompt new sanctions targeting exports.
