Burberry Group plc (LON: BRBY) has gone from luxury casualty to contested comeback story in less than two years. As of midday on 3 December 2025, the stock is trading just below recent highs, the brand has finally posted its first quarter of sales growth in two years – and analysts can’t agree whether this is the start of a durable recovery or a very stylish dead cat bounce. [1]
This deep dive pulls together the latest news, forecasts and analyst views as of 3 December 2025, to give a clear, reality‑checked view of where Burberry sits now.
Burberry share price on 3 December 2025: where things stand
On 3 December 2025, Burberry shares on the London Stock Exchange are changing hands at about 1,166.5 pence as of 11:03 GMT, according to Financial Times market data. [2]
Key snapshot:
- Last trade: 1,166.5p
- Previous close: 1,161.0p
- Intraday range (so far): roughly 1,145.5p – 1,176.5p [3]
- 52‑week range: 597.0p (7 April 2025) – 1,375.0p (28 July 2025) [4]
- Distance from 52‑week high: about 15% below the peak [5]
- Market capitalisation: ~£4.2 billion [6]
- Trailing EPS (TTM): roughly ‑7.5p per share, leaving the P/E effectively negative [7]
- Dividend: no current annual yield shown; the last recorded dividend was paid in August 2024 after a June 2024 ex‑dividend date. [8]
Over the past year, Burberry has swung from multiyear lows near 600p to briefly trading above 1,370p in late July, before settling into its current 1,100–1,200p band. Technical services such as StockInvest describe the recent price action as a short‑term consolidation after a strong rebound, rather than a clean bullish or bearish trend. [9]
So: the market is no longer pricing Burberry for disaster – but it is not treating it like a flawless luxury champion either.
How we got here: from profit warnings to “Burberry Forward”
To understand the current analyst divide, you have to rewind through Burberry’s rough patch.
A bruising 2024–2025
In May 2024, Burberry reported a 40% drop in annual pre‑tax profits to £383 million (from £634 million) as demand for luxury slowed, particularly in Asia and the Americas. The company flagged a “challenging” first half ahead, and the share price was down more than 50% year‑on‑year at that point. [10]
Things got worse before they got better. By the time fiscal 2024/25 wrapped up (Burberry’s year ends in March):
- Revenue: down 15% at constant currency to about £2.46 billion
- Comparable store sales: down 12%
- Adjusted operating profit: collapsed 88% to £26 million, from £418 million a year earlier
- Reported operating result: around £3 million loss [11]
The Guardian later reported that Burberry swung to a £66 million loss from a prior £383 million profit, and that management planned to cut around 1,700 jobs worldwide to find an additional £60 million of savings on top of an earlier £40 million programme. [12]
In analyst shorthand, 2024/25 was an “annus horribilis”: collapsing profits, weaker demand, and a brand that had drifted somewhere between ultra‑luxury and premium – not expensive enough to be untouchable, but too pricey for mid‑market resilience. [13]
The “Burberry Forward” reset
Under CEO Joshua Schulman, hired to engineer a turnaround, the group launched its new strategy branded “Burberry Forward”. The plan is built on four pillars:
- Put the customer at the centre
- Re‑anchor Burberry as “Timeless British Luxury”
- Lead with outerwear (trench coats, scarves, heritage pieces) and then earn the right in other categories
- Align distribution and culture with that repositioning – fewer discounts, better stores, and a higher‑performance internal culture [14]
Behind the brand language sits quite a lot of unglamorous surgery: cutting weaker wholesale partners, refreshing stores, rolling out “scarf bars”, pruning product lines, and launching an enlarged cost‑efficiency programme targeting £80 million in annualised savings by the end of FY26. [15]
This is the backdrop for the latest results and the current share price.
FY26 interim results: first sales growth in two years, margins crawl out of the basement
On 13 November 2025, Burberry released interim results for the 26 weeks to 27 September 2025 (H1 FY26). These numbers are the core of the current bull case – and also fuel for the sceptics.
Headline financials
From the company’s own RNS filing: [16]
- Revenue: £1,032m vs £1,086m in the prior year
- Down 5% at reported FX, ‑3% at constant FX
- Retail comparable store sales:flat for the half
- Q1: ‑1%
- Q2: +2% – the first quarter of positive comps in two years [17]
- Adjusted operating profit: £19m (vs a £41m loss a year earlier)
- Adjusted operating margin:1.9%, up from ‑3.8%; a ~570 bps improvement
- Reported operating loss: £18m, after a £37m restructuring charge
- Gross margin:67.9%, up about 4.5 percentage points year‑on‑year
- Free cash flow:‑£50m, but improved from a ‑£184m outflow in the prior first half
Geographically, the RNS showed that for H1 FY26: [18]
- Group comp sales were flat,
- EMEIA (Europe, Middle East, India & Africa) comps were slightly positive,
- The Americas and Greater China posted low single‑digit growth in Q2, while Asia‑Pacific outside China remained under pressure.
Reuters highlighted that the Q2 +2% comp followed a ‑20% comparison period, and that Greater China grew around 3%, offering some evidence that Burberry’s reset is starting to resonate in its most critical market. [19]
Cost discipline and inventory clean‑up
The improved gross margin and narrowed loss are not just a function of slightly better sales. Burberry has:
- Cut net operating expenses by about 5% at constant rates and 7% at reported rates
- Reduced inventories materially; commentary from recent coverage refers to stock down roughly 24%, which helps both margins and cash discipline [20]
- Stayed on track for the £80m annualised savings target by the end of FY26 [21]
In simple terms: Burberry is earning a bit more margin on slightly lower sales, while losing less money overall. The P&L still isn’t pretty, but the direction of travel is materially better.
Management tone
Schulman’s comments around the interim results were noticeably upbeat. He pointed to:
- Customers returning to Burberry “for the brand they love”
- The first positive quarter of comparable sales in two years as “proof points” that Burberry Forward is the right path
- A focus on “Timeless British Luxury” rather than chasing short‑term fashion noise [22]
Management also reiterated FY26 guidance:
- Retail space broadly stable
- Wholesale revenue expected to decline mid‑single‑digit for FY26
- Annualised cost savings of around £80m (vs £24m delivered in the prior year)
- Capex of about £120m
- Currency headwind: roughly £50m on revenue and £5m on adjusted operating profit [23]
The message is clear: this is still a turnaround, not a victory lap.
Consensus forecasts into FY26: what the numbers say
Burberry publishes aggregated sell‑side forecasts on its investor relations site. The latest consensus, updated 14 October 2025, covers the financial year ending March 2026 (FY26). [24]
For FY26, the analyst averages are:
- Group revenue: £2,412m (range £2,332m – £2,509m)
- Revenue growth at constant FX:0% (range ‑3% to +4%)
- Comparable retail sales:+2% (range ‑2% to +5%)
- Adjusted operating profit:£149m (range £132m – £183m)
- Reported operating profit:£100m (range £82m – £132m)
- Adjusted diluted EPS:20.3p (range 15.8p – 27.1p)
Given that the first half has already delivered £19m of adjusted operating profit on £1,032m of sales, consensus effectively assumes:
- A step‑up in profitability in H2,
- Modest full‑year sales growth vs the very weak prior year,
- And a return to positive adjusted EPS after deep losses. [25]
TradingView’s aggregated data tell a similar story, with the next quarter’s revenue expected to reach about £1.42bn, and EPS forecast to rise from 0.01p last quarter to ~0.18p in the coming quarter. [26]
Taken together: the Street is not baking in a heroic growth story. It is, however, forecasting a significant earnings inflection from “barely profitable” to “modestly profitable” by FY26.
FTSE 100 return and the luxury backdrop
In September 2025, FTSE Russell announced that Burberry would re‑enter the FTSE 100 index later that month, after falling out of the benchmark in late 2024. The change became effective at the close on 19 September and from the start of trading on 22 September. [27]
Re‑joining the FTSE 100 matters because:
- It can attract index‑tracking and benchmark‑aware capital,
- It signals that the stock’s market cap has recovered enough to sit back among the UK’s large‑cap names.
More broadly, Burberry is moving within a recovering but fragile luxury sector. Analysts have framed it as a high‑beta satellite to giants like LVMH and Kering: when sentiment towards luxury improves, Burberry tends to move more – in either direction. Some sector research now points to low‑single‑digit organic growth in luxury in 2026, with improvement weighted towards the second half of the year, especially if Chinese demand stabilises. TS2 Tech+1
In short: the macro tide is no longer going out, but it’s not exactly surging in either.
Analyst ratings on 3 December 2025: a “Hold” with noisy edges
If you only looked at the average, Burberry would appear to sit in the land of eternal shrugs: “Hold”. Under the surface, the picture is much more interesting.
MarketBeat: Hold with mid‑teens upside
MarketBeat’s BRBY forecast page, updated in early December, shows: [28]
- Consensus rating:Hold
- Based on: 7 analysts
- 5 Buy ratings
- 2 Sell ratings
- Average 12‑month price target:1,336.43p
- High target: 1,600p
- Low target: 680p
- Implied upside of about 14% from ~1,170p
Recent individual moves include:
- JPMorgan (28 Nov 2025): downgraded Burberry from Neutral to Underweight, and raised its target from 850p to 950p – still about 17% below the current price. [29]
- Deutsche Bank (13 Nov 2025): lifted its target from 1,500p to 1,550p and maintained a Buy rating. [30]
- UBS (7 Nov 2025): reiterated Buy with a 1,575p target. [31]
- HSBC earlier in 2025: reiterated Buy with a 1,600p target. [32]
So even within a small analyst sample, Burberry spans the full spectrum from “underweight, downside risk” to “buy with 30–35% upside”.
TradingView and other aggregators: generally constructive
TradingView’s forecast dashboard aggregates a larger universe: [33]
- 1‑year price target:1,309.5p
- Rating: overall “Buy”, based on ratings from 22 analysts over the last three months
- Target range: low 680p, high 1,575p
A recent Yahoo Finance write‑up on Burberry’s rating trajectory highlighted that the consensus target has nudged up to around £12.92 per share (1,292p) and that several houses have moved from cautious to cautiously optimistic as the interim results confirmed stabilisation. [34]
DirectorstalkInterviews, summarising a broader set of broker notes on 3 December 2025, reports: [35]
- 10 Buy, 5 Hold, and 4 Sell ratings
- Average target price:1,303.16p
- Implied upside: about 12.2% from current levels
- Target range: again 680p – 1,575p
Meanwhile, a recent TIKR deep‑dive characterised Burberry as a “reset‑year turnaround”: weak current numbers, tangible progress on cost and inventory, and a share price that has already rebounded more than 25% from its 2025 lows. The TIKR verdict was effectively “watchlisted hold” – interesting comeback potential, but still plenty to prove. [36]
The JPMorgan bear case in detail
The loudest recent negative voice is JPMorgan, whose late‑November downgrade to Underweight rested on several points: [37]
- The Q2 +2% like‑for‑like sales growth came against a ‑20% comparison, so it signals stabilisation more than robust momentum.
- High‑frequency data suggest that customer engagement has been slipping week by week since September, just as Burberry laps last year’s heavy discounting.
- JPMorgan’s EBIT forecasts sit roughly 5% below Street consensus for FY27 and 15% below for FY28, implying downside risk if the turnaround doesn’t fully fire.
Their new 950p target is not a catastrophe scenario, but it is a clear statement that they think the risk‑reward has tilted negative after the recent share price recovery.
Longer‑term forecasts: from cautious optimism to algorithmic doom
Where humans see nuance, algorithms see clean lines – sometimes very odd ones.
- Consensus human analyst targets for the next 12 months cluster around 1,300–1,350p, implying low‑to‑mid teens upside from around 1,170p today. [38]
- Company‑compiled forecasts indicate a return to positive EPS (~20p adjusted) and a modest operating margin by FY26, with low‑single‑digit comparable sales growth. [39]
On the more mechanical side, forecasting platform Meyka paints a much darker picture for the US OTC line (BBRYF), projecting a price around $9.4 in 2026, implying roughly ‑35% downside, and an absurdly pessimistic $0 by 2030. [40]
Those extreme long‑term numbers mostly tell you how fragile extrapolation models are for cyclical, brand‑driven businesses. They are not the consensus view of fundamental analysts, but they do underline how wide the spectrum of possible outcomes looks from here.
Key positives for Burberry stock right now
If you stack the bullish points from company disclosures and recent research, the optimistic case roughly boils down to:
- Turnaround proof points
- Q2 FY26 delivered +2% comps, the first positive quarter in two years, with Greater China back to modest growth and the Americas improving. [41]
- Margin rebuild has started
- Gross margin is close to 68%, net opex is falling, and the group swung from a £41m adjusted operating loss to a £19m profit in the half. [42]
- Cost savings with room to reinvest
- The £80m cost programme (on top of earlier savings) gives leverage if sales recover, while still leaving scope for elevated marketing and store investment. [43]
- Brand repositioning is clearer
- Burberry has stopped trying to be all things to all people and is leaning into “Timeless British Luxury”, with trench coats, scarves and outerwear back at centre stage – a clearer narrative than prior “edgy” detours. [44]
- Sector cycle may be turning up
- European luxury peers have recently reported stabilisation or early growth again, especially in China, and Burberry tends to be a high‑beta beneficiary when the sector re‑rates. TS2 Tech+1
- Most fundamental targets sit above the current price
- Across MarketBeat, TradingView, the company consensus and various broker round‑ups, the average 12‑month target is comfortably above today’s share price, even when you include JPMorgan’s 950p. [45]
In plain language: the worst seems to be over, and the earnings line is finally pointing up, not down.
Key risks and bear‑case arguments
The sceptical camp has plenty of ammunition too:
- Momentum is fragile and flattered by easy comps
A 2% comp increase after a ‑20% comparison period is more like a heartbeat returning than a sprint. JPMorgan’s high‑frequency data suggesting slipping engagement since September reinforces the idea that the recovery can still stall. [46] - US and China dependence
Burberry is heavily exposed to aspirational luxury consumers in Greater China and the Americas, groups that have proven especially sensitive to macro jitters and discounting. Any renewed slowdown in these regions hits Burberry harder than ultra‑elite peers like Hermès. [47] - Wholesale reset and distribution risk
Management is intentionally shrinking and upgrading its wholesale network. That’s healthy in the long run, but it means wholesale revenue is still falling and the brand must prove it can drive enough full‑price retail demand to compensate. [48] - Execution risk from deep cost cuts
Between the job cuts (around 1,700 roles by 2027) and the £80m savings target, Burberry is doing major organisational surgery. The danger is that morale, creativity or speed suffer just when the company most needs them. [49] - Balance sheet is fine, but not bulletproof
Burberry previously touted net cash above £700m, but H1 FY26 free cash flow was still negative, and the company remains loss‑making on a reported basis. If the macro picture turns again, the financial cushion is not infinite. [50] - Valuation is no longer “distressed”
After rebounding from below 600p to the current ~1,170p, the stock is now trading about 15% below its 52‑week high, with the market capitalisation back above £4bn and Burberry reinstated in the FTSE 100. There is room for upside, but the deep‑value entry point has clearly passed. [51]
Put bluntly: Burberry is a turnaround mid‑process, not a recovery safely in the rear‑view mirror.
What to watch next
For anyone tracking Burberry into 2026, a few datapoints will matter more than the rest:
- Q3 trading update – 21 January 2026
Burberry has flagged this date for its next trading update. Investors will be laser‑focused on:- Comparable store sales (does Q2’s +2% turn into a trend?)
- Greater China and US performance
- Evidence that full‑price sell‑through is improving, not just volumes. [52]
- Gross margin and discounting
Maintaining ~68% gross margin while growing sales would be a powerful signal that Burberry has regained pricing power rather than simply pushing more product out the door. [53] - Progress on the £80m cost‑saving target
Watch whether cost savings flow through to operating profit without visible damage to brand heat or store experience. [54] - Analyst revisions post‑JPMorgan
If the majority of brokers follow JPMorgan lower, that would suggest consensus was too optimistic. If instead we see stable or rising targets from other houses, JPMorgan may end up as the well‑known contrarian in the room. [55]
Bottom line: a contested but genuinely interesting turnaround
As of 3 December 2025, Burberry sits in an awkward but fascinating middle ground:
- The business is no longer in freefall; Q2 delivered the first positive sales comps in two years and margins are improving from extremely low levels. [56]
- The stock price has already priced in some recovery, roughly doubling from the lows but still trading below its 2025 peak. [57]
- Analysts are split between “credible upside if the plan works” and “too early, too risky”, with average targets suggesting mid‑teens upside but individual calls ranging from 680p to 1,600p. [58]
For investors, Burberry now embodies a classic luxury‑sector question: is this the start of a multi‑year brand renaissance, or just a stylish pause in a longer‑term fade?
Whichever way it breaks, the outcome will say a lot not just about Burberry’s trenches and scarves, but about how much patience public markets truly have for high‑stakes brand turnarounds in a twitchy global luxury cycle.
References
1. markets.ft.com, 2. markets.ft.com, 3. markets.ft.com, 4. markets.ft.com, 5. markets.ft.com, 6. markets.ft.com, 7. markets.ft.com, 8. markets.ft.com, 9. stockinvest.us, 10. www.theguardian.com, 11. www.tikr.com, 12. www.theguardian.com, 13. www.theguardian.com, 14. www.burberryplc.com, 15. markets.ft.com, 16. markets.ft.com, 17. markets.ft.com, 18. markets.ft.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. markets.ft.com, 21. markets.ft.com, 22. markets.ft.com, 23. www.burberryplc.com, 24. www.burberryplc.com, 25. www.burberryplc.com, 26. www.tradingview.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. www.marketbeat.com, 33. www.tradingview.com, 34. finance.yahoo.com, 35. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 36. www.tikr.com, 37. www.investing.com, 38. www.marketbeat.com, 39. www.burberryplc.com, 40. meyka.com, 41. markets.ft.com, 42. markets.ft.com, 43. markets.ft.com, 44. www.burberryplc.com, 45. www.marketbeat.com, 46. www.investing.com, 47. markets.ft.com, 48. markets.ft.com, 49. www.theguardian.com, 50. www.tikr.com, 51. markets.ft.com, 52. markets.ft.com, 53. markets.ft.com, 54. markets.ft.com, 55. www.marketbeat.com, 56. markets.ft.com, 57. markets.ft.com, 58. www.marketbeat.com
