Published: December 9, 2025
The Campbell’s Company – still best known to most people as Campbell Soup (NASDAQ: CPB) – just dropped a dense bundle of news on investors: fiscal Q1 2026 results, confirmation of its 2026 outlook, and a new deal to deepen its bet on the ultra-popular Rao’s pasta sauce.
The market’s verdict so far is cautious. By late trading on December 9, CPB shares were hovering around $29, down roughly 3% on the day and trading near their 52-week low, more than 40% below a high near $51. [1]
Here’s what’s going on with Campbell’s stock and what today’s data and forecasts really imply.
Q1 2026: Profit Beats, Sales Slip
Campbell’s reported results for its first quarter of fiscal 2026 (quarter ended November 2, 2025). Key numbers from the company’s release: [2]
- Net sales: About $2.7 billion, down 3% year on year (–1% organically), but slightly ahead of Wall Street expectations around $2.66 billion. [3]
- GAAP EPS:$0.65, down from the prior year.
- Adjusted EPS:$0.77, down 13% year on year – but above consensus estimates around $0.73. [4]
- Adjusted EBIT: Down 11% to about $383 million. [5]
- Operating cash flow: $224 million, with $144 million returned to shareholders (including $120 million in dividends). [6]
So the quarter is a classic “mixed but better than feared” story:
- Revenue is under gentle pressure as volumes soften, especially in snacks. [7]
- Profitability is compressing thanks to inflation, tariffs and integration costs. [8]
- But Campbell’s still managed to beat EPS and sales estimates, a point repeated across sell-side commentary and news coverage. [9]
Reuters summarized the quarter neatly: resilient demand for canned soups and ready-to-eat meals continues to support sales as cost-sensitive consumers cook more at home. [10]
Guidance: 2026 Will Be a Step Back, By Design
The more important piece for the CPB stock story is guidance.
Campbell’s reaffirmed its full-year fiscal 2026 outlook, which was first detailed with Q4 FY25 results in September and reiterated today: [11]
- Organic net sales growth: Between –1% and +1%.
- Adjusted EBIT: Expected to decline 9–13% versus fiscal 2025.
- Adjusted EPS: Expected between $2.40 and $2.55, implying a 12–18% decline from FY25’s level. [12]
Management has been very explicit about the culprit: tariffs and related cost pressure are expected to drive roughly two-thirds of the hit to EPS in 2026, even as the company chases extra cost savings. [13]
So the script for FY26, if all goes to plan, is:
- Flat-ish sales
- Lower earnings
- Extra cost-cutting (savings target raised to $375 million by FY28 from $250 million previously) [14]
That combination explains why CPB trades like a bruised defensive stock: cash-generative with a reliable dividend, but staring at a near-term earnings dip rather than growth.
Rao’s and La Regina: Dialing Up the “Premium Sauce” Story
The most eye-catching strategic move announced alongside the quarter:
Campbell’s is buying a 49% stake in La Regina S.p.A., the Italian producer behind Rao’s tomato-based pasta sauces, for about $286 million. [15]
This builds on Campbell’s earlier Sovos Brands acquisition (the deal that originally brought Rao’s into the portfolio) and effectively locks in a deeper, long-term partnership with La Regina.
Why does that matter for CPB stock?
- Rao’s has been one of the standout growth drivers inside the Meals & Beverages segment, with strong demand for premium pasta sauce and related products. [16]
- The La Regina deal is framed as fueling Rao’s future growth and securing supply. [17]
- It strengthens Campbell’s position in high-margin, premium “center-of-store” categories rather than just low-priced canned soup.
On top of that, Campbell’s said it plans to eliminate synthetic dyes from its food and beverage portfolio starting in fiscal 2026, tapping into the long-running demand for cleaner labels. [18]
Taken together, the strategy is pretty clear: while FY26 will be a messy, tariff-heavy year, management is positioning the business around premium brands and perceived quality, not just volume.
Segment Trends: Soups Holding Up, Snacks Dragging
If you zoom out over the last few quarters, the pattern inside Campbell’s is fairly consistent: [19]
- Meals & Beverages (soups, broth, sauces, etc.)
- Solid demand for U.S. soup during colder months.
- Rao’s and Canadian expansion helping growth.
- Segment has delivered mid-single-digit organic growth in prior quarters, though price/mix matters a lot.
- Snacks (Goldfish, Snyder’s, etc.)
- More pressure on volumes and sales; one recent quarter saw a 5% sales decline.
- Some underperformance in partner brands and more promotional intensity.
- Management is pushing limited-time offerings and margin initiatives, but the turnaround is still “show me, don’t tell me” for investors.
Today’s Q1 numbers fit into that story: Campbell’s can still lean on pantry staples and premium sauces, but it hasn’t solved weaker snacking trends or broader volume fatigue across some packaged foods.
How the Market Is Reacting: Near Lows After a 30%+ Slide
From a stock-price angle, this has been a rough year.
Recent analyses put CPB’s year-to-date decline around 29–30%, with the one-year total return even worse. [20] That drop is big for a conservative consumer staples name and reflects:
- Concern about shrinking 2026 profits
- Sluggish organic growth
- Tariff overhang
- Persistent questions about how much Campbell’s should be worth in a low-growth world
As of December 9, 2025, CPB trades around $29, close to its 52-week low near $29.86 and roughly 40% below its 52-week high of $50.90. [21]
In other words, the market has already punished the stock quite severely for its sins.
Wall Street Forecasts and Price Targets: A Cluster Around the Low-30s
Analyst commentary heading into and immediately after the Q1 release paints a picture of cautious neutrality rather than outright panic.
Recent moves include:
- Morgan Stanley: Equal-Weight rating; price target cut from $33 to $30 on December 5. [22]
- UBS: Sell rating; target trimmed from $30 to $28. [23]
- DA Davidson: Neutral with target lowered from $32 to $30 ahead of the Q1 print. [24]
- Stephens: Target reduced to $38 on consumption concerns. [25]
- Stifel: Hold rating reiterated today with a $34 target. [26]
Across data aggregators, the average 12-month price target sits in the low-to-mid-$30s – roughly $34 according to several forecast summaries and broker screens. [27]
Against a spot price around $29, the Street is effectively saying:
“We don’t love the growth outlook, but CPB might be a bit too beaten up here.”
That’s not a screaming buy signal, but it is a hint that downside from current levels may be more limited if management delivers on guidance.
Valuation: A Magnet for DCF Nerds
The slide in Campbell’s share price has attracted a wave of valuation-driven research, especially discounted cash flow (DCF) models.
A few recent examples:
- One widely referenced DCF analysis estimates CPB is trading at about a 53% discount to its modelled intrinsic value, labeling the stock “undervalued” after a 29.6% price slide in 2025. [28]
- Another model pegs fair value in the $40–$41 range, implying roughly 30–35% upside from prices around $29–30. [29]
- A more aggressive DCF approach even suggests fair value near $65, more than double the current price, based on very low discount rates and modest long-term growth assumptions. [30]
These models differ wildly because they’re hypersensitive to:
- Long-term growth (is Campbell’s a 0–1% grower forever, or can it squeeze out 2–3%?)
- Margin durability (do tariff headwinds fade, or become the new normal?)
- Discount rate assumptions (a few tenths of a percent make a big difference when your business is stable but slow-growing)
The through-line, though, is that most of the long-horizon valuation work currently sees CPB stock as cheap rather than expensive – assuming earnings don’t erode beyond the 2026 dip already guided.
Key Risks Investors Need to Watch
Before anyone declares Campbell Soup a slam-dunk bargain, the risk list matters:
- Tariff and Cost Inflation Risk
Management has already built a large EPS hit into FY26 guidance from tariffs and input costs. [31] If trade frictions worsen or commodity prices spike, even those lowered expectations could prove optimistic. - Volume Elasticity and Private-Label Competition
At some point, consumers trading down from branded soup and snacks to cheaper private-label alternatives can outweigh whatever price increases Campbell’s can push through. That’s especially true if real wages stagnate and inflation stays sticky. - Snacks Turnaround Execution
The snacks portfolio carries attractive brands but has been underperforming lately. [32] If that doesn’t normalize, the bears will argue that Campbell’s is structurally weaker outside its legacy soup and sauce core. - Integration and Concentration Risk Around Rao’s / Sovos / La Regina
When a single premium brand cluster carries a lot of the growth narrative, any stumble—quality issues, supply constraints, competition—hits sentiment hard. The La Regina stake also adds more capital at risk in this one strategic direction. [33] - Regulation and Consumer-Health Scrutiny
The move to eliminate synthetic dyes is both a risk response and a marketing angle. It also hints at how quickly consumer expectations and regulatory standards can shift, forcing reformulation and new costs. [34]
The Bottom Line: A Beaten-Down Defensive With a Complex 2026
Putting all the threads together:
- Fundamentals today:
- Q1 2026 delivered an earnings beat and slightly better-than-expected sales, but confirmed a real margin squeeze. [35]
- 2026 outlook:
- Flat organic sales, falling earnings, and tariff headwinds, mitigated by cost savings. [36]
- Strategy:
- Double down on premium brands (Rao’s, La Regina), clean-label commitments, and portfolio efficiency. [37]
- Stock:
- Down ~30%+ in 2025, trading around its 52-week low, with consensus analyst targets clustered modestly above the current price and many DCF models arguing CPB is undervalued. [38]
For long-term, income-oriented investors, Campbell Soup now looks like a classic case study in “good business, bad near-term narrative”: strong brands, stable demand, unexciting growth, and a temporarily ugly earnings path.
Crucially, nothing in today’s Q1 release or guidance update suggests an existential problem for the franchise; the story is about how much earnings dip in 2026 and how fast they recover, not whether the soup suddenly stops selling. [39]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.thecampbellscompany.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. finance.yahoo.com, 5. www.thecampbellscompany.com, 6. www.thecampbellscompany.com, 7. www.ainvest.com, 8. site.financialmodelingprep.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.thecampbellscompany.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. site.financialmodelingprep.com, 14. site.financialmodelingprep.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.ainvest.com, 17. www.thecampbellscompany.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.ainvest.com, 20. swingtradebot.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.gurufocus.com, 23. www.gurufocus.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. finance.yahoo.com, 28. finance.yahoo.com, 29. valueinvesting.io, 30. valuesense.io, 31. site.financialmodelingprep.com, 32. www.ainvest.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. finance.yahoo.com, 36. markets.ft.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. swingtradebot.com, 39. www.thecampbellscompany.com
