New York, May 12, 2026, 17:11 (EDT)
- Camtek finished the session at $174.63, sinking 15.8%. That drop came despite first-quarter revenue and non-GAAP EPS—adjusted earnings per share—nudging past analyst estimates.
- Management set Q2 revenue expectations between $129 million and $131 million, adding that revenue in the back half should outpace the first half by over 25%. Still, operating margin took a steep hit compared to last year.
- High-growth chip stocks took a beating as April’s CPI surprised to the upside, Treasury yields climbed, and odds of Fed rate cuts this year faded in the prediction markets.
Camtek Ltd. shares tumbled 15.8%, not because Q1 was soft—just not up to the price tag. The company edged past estimates, topping adjusted EPS by a penny and revenue by roughly $1.5 million.
That’s the crux of the day’s action. Camtek had looked like a textbook AI capex play, still closing up over 60% for the year. But first-quarter revenue edged up just 2.5% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS slipped to $0.70 from $0.79. The modest beat left the valuation debate unresolved.
Management aimed to steer focus toward late 2026. CEO Rafi Amit described Camtek’s incoming orders at the start of the year as “unprecedented,” highlighting a coming “surge” in revenue for the second half. Still, the market shrugged and dumped the shares. PR Newswire
The core business argument stands. Camtek’s inspection and metrology equipment—machines essential for checking and measuring chips through manufacturing—has grown more critical as AI chips demand high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and sophisticated packaging that squeezes components tighter. On the earnings call, CEO Rafi Amit broke down the numbers: about half of Q1 revenue was tied to AI-driven products, with another 20% coming from advanced-packaging applications not directly linked to AI.
Bulls latched onto the order book. Camtek disclosed it’s expecting over $260 million in revenue for 2026 and 2027 from orders and outlooks tied to two HBM makers. For the second quarter, the company projected revenue between $129 million and $131 million. Camtek also anticipates second-half revenue will top the first half by more than 25%.
The margin story proved tougher. Operating margin dropped to 25.5%, down from 31.5% a year ago. CFO Moshe Eisenberg pointed to higher spending in R&D and sales and marketing, saying those were aimed at fueling future growth. The weaker dollar versus the shekel also pressured results. Eisenberg added that operating margin should get back to about 30% in the second half.
Macro timing left the stock exposed. April’s CPI landed with a 0.6% bump month-over-month and 3.8% over the past year; core CPI printed 2.8%. Gasoline, up a hefty 28.4% from last year, drove the move in energy. For chip-equipment names trading at elevated multiples, sticky inflation eats into hopes for rate relief and shortens the market’s fuse for “second-half rebound” pitches. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Prediction markets leaned that way, too. Tracking Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gemini, the combined odds pinned a 57% chance on the Fed making no rate cuts in 2026. As for the upcoming June meeting, the market priced in over a 93% likelihood rates stay put. Zooming in on Polymarket’s own numbers for 2026, zero cuts held at 62.5%, while bets on a single 25-basis-point trim — that’s a quarter point — stood at 17.5%.
Camtek wasn’t the only one under pressure. Shares of the iShares Semiconductor ETF finished down roughly 3.1%. Nova shed 6.2%. Onto Innovation slipped by 3.3%, while KLA was off 1.8%. Camtek’s decline stood out, hit by weaker growth early in the year, slimmer margins, and a stock price that had already sprinted ahead of results.
Bulls argue today’s drop was just a shakeout, not a sign the story’s broken. Camtek’s Eagle G5 and Hawk lines are still on track—management sees revenue potentially doubling over last year, and they’re betting AI-driven inspection tools could push their target market past $2 billion by 2027. Jefferies upped its target to $200 and reiterated its Buy call after the latest results, pointing to HBM as the key driver.
Bears argue the stock’s priced in most of what’s ahead. Despite the drop, one analyst-tracking feed still has an average target that’s under where shares finished. Another tracker? Seven rate it a buy, seven say hold. There’s no stampede for the exits. Wall Street still likes the business—just not enough at these risk-reward levels.
The message came through loud and clear: Camtek’s got AI-driven demand, HBM exposure, and management sounding upbeat. What’s missing? Investors still need to see second-half revenue and margin results before they’re ready to raise their bids again.
