Canada’s macro calendar for Monday, December 15, 2025 is front-loaded with market-moving releases that can quickly reset expectations for Bank of Canada policy, the Canadian dollar (CAD), and rate-sensitive sectors such as housing and consumer discretionary. The headline event is Statistics Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November, landing just days after the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% and reiterated that inflation has been contained near target—even as trade frictions and tariff-related restructuring keep uncertainty elevated. [1]
The backdrop going into Monday is already lively: the loonie has been firm, supported by a “policy divergence” narrative (markets weighing a BoC on hold versus additional U.S. easing), while trade data recently surprised with a return to surplus and signs of normalization in cross-border flows. [2]
Below is a complete, Canada-focused guide to what’s due, what economists are looking for, and the scenarios most likely to move markets.
Canada’s Key Economic Releases on December 15, 2025 (Times in Eastern Time)
Early morning
- 5:00 a.m. — MLS Home Sales (November), Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) (scheduled as part of major bank calendars; CREA has also flagged its next statistics package for Dec. 15). [3]
Morning data window
- 8:15 a.m. — Housing Starts (November), CMHC (CMHC has explicitly stated it will publish November starts on Dec. 15 at 8:15 a.m. ET). [4]
- 8:30 a.m. — Consumer Price Index (November), Statistics Canada (released in The Daily, which publishes at 8:30 a.m. Eastern). [5]
- 8:30 a.m. — Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (October), Statistics Canada (manufacturing “shipments/sales” report). [6]
- 8:30 a.m. — New Motor Vehicle Registrations (Q3 2025), Statistics Canada [7]
- 8:30 a.m. — Construction Union Wage Rate Index (June–November 2025), Statistics Canada [8]
- 8:30 a.m. — Traffic Flow Dashboard update, Statistics Canada [9]
The Main Event: Canada CPI (November 2025) — Why This Release Matters More Than Usual
What markets care about on Monday
Even with headline inflation near target recently, Monday’s CPI is crucial because it feeds directly into the debate that matters most for 2026: is inflation cooling enough to reopen the door to cuts, or sticky enough to keep the BoC pinned on hold (or eventually thinking about hikes)?
Just this week, the Bank of Canada emphasized three points: the economy has shown resilience despite tariff shocks; inflation pressures remain contained near target; and the current policy rate is viewed as “about the right level,” with the Bank ready to respond if the outlook shifts. [10]
Latest forecasts and near-term expectations
Forecasts in the last couple of days cluster around a “steady-to-slightly-firmer” narrative:
- RBC Economics expects headline CPI to hold at 2.2% year-over-year in November, unchanged from October, with ex-food-and-energy inflation around 2.7%. RBC also expects the BoC’s preferred core measures (CPI-trim and CPI-median) to tick lower but remain near the upper end of the 1%–3% range—and says it still expects no additional BoC rate cuts over the year ahead. [11]
- A Reuters poll cited by The Canadian Press/CityNews points to 2.3% y/y for November, with gasoline identified by CIBC’s Andrew Grantham as a key driver behind the move. [12]
Why the split between “2.2” and “2.3” matters: a tenth of a point is unlikely to change long-run policy on its own, but it can materially impact front-end rates, CAD, and near-term market positioning when investors are already leaning into the BoC-on-hold narrative.
Watch the components: energy, food, shelter—and a methodological change
Recent inflation dynamics have been heavily shaped by energy and consumer policy changes. RBC notes gasoline prices rose in November but were still materially lower than a year earlier, helped by the end of consumer carbon surcharges earlier in 2025—keeping energy inflation depressed. [13]
Food is the other side of the story: RBC expects food inflation to remain above 3%, consistent with earlier rises in agricultural commodity prices. [14]
A technical detail that could matter more than usual for headline volatility:
- Statistics Canada has flagged that beginning with the November CPI release (Dec. 15), traveller accommodation prices will be collected across the first four weekends of each month rather than only the third weekend—intended to better capture fluctuations in accommodation prices. [15]
This doesn’t automatically “raise CPI,” but it can change the month-to-month pattern for the travel accommodation component—something traders may mention if there’s an unexpected move in travel-related prices.
Housing Starts (CMHC) — A Direct Read on Construction Momentum and Supply
Release details and consensus
CMHC will publish November housing starts at 8:15 a.m. ET. [16]
On the expectations side, Econoday’s market consensus going into the release is:
- 241,000 annualized units (consensus range 229,000 to 255,000)
- Previous: 232,765 [17]
Why this matters for markets (and not just housing watchers)
Housing starts are watched as:
- a high-frequency pulse on construction activity and residential investment, and
- a signal about future housing supply, a politically and economically sensitive issue in Canada.
The broader housing picture remains mixed. On the one hand, rate cuts since 2024 have reduced financing pressure, and some analysts see scope for gradual improvements in resales. On the other hand, affordability constraints and confidence shocks still show up in regional data and transaction volumes.
Recent housing headlines underscore that uncertainty remains elevated:
- Reuters reported Toronto-area home sales fell to a five-month low in November amid economic uncertainty, even as borrowing costs have come down from their peak. [18]
For Monday, a starts number that beats consensus would likely be interpreted as supportive for construction activity and could add to the idea that the economy is “holding up,” while a downside miss would reinforce the narrative of uneven, rate-sensitive growth.
Manufacturing “Shipments/Sales” (Statistics Canada) — The Factory-Sector Reality Check
Statistics Canada’s Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (October 2025) is scheduled for release on December 15. [19]
What we already know going in
StatsCan already published an advance indicator indicating manufacturing sales decreased 1.1% in October, and explicitly noted that the official estimate for October manufacturing sales is scheduled for December 15. [20]
That advance signal gives markets a baseline. The main questions on Monday will be:
- How close the final release is to the -1.1% estimate, and
- Whether the weakness is broad-based or concentrated in tariff-exposed or commodity-sensitive subsectors.
Why manufacturing is in focus right now
The BoC has been explicit that steep U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty have hit certain sectors hard, and have weighed on business investment, even as the overall economy has shown resilience. [21]
So manufacturing is not just a growth datapoint—it’s also a real-time test of how tariff-related disruption is showing up in “hard” activity data.
CREA MLS Home Sales (November) — A Market-Mover for Housing Sentiment
CREA has said its next statistics package will be published Monday, December 15, 2025. [22]
Major bank calendars list MLS home sales as an early release (commonly cited as 5:00 a.m. ET). [23]
This release tends to move markets less than CPI, but it can still shape CAD-sensitive housing sentiment—especially when paired with housing starts on the same morning.
What to watch in the MLS release:
- Sales momentum (month-over-month and year-over-year)
- Inventory and months of supply
- Price measures (HPI/benchmark versus average price)
- Regional divergence (Ontario/BC versus Prairie and Quebec markets)
Other Statistics Canada Releases: The “Under-the-Radar” Indicators Worth Scanning
Alongside CPI and manufacturing, StatsCan’s release schedule for Dec. 15 includes: [24]
- New motor vehicle registrations (Q3 2025): a useful read on household and fleet demand, and a cross-check against broader consumer resilience.
- Construction Union Wage Rate Index (June–November 2025): a wage-and-cost indicator that can feed into the story on construction inflation pressures.
- Traffic Flow Dashboard: a high-frequency activity indicator that can provide color on mobility and economic activity trends.
These rarely drive a first-wave market move, but they can matter in the second wave—especially if CPI surprises and investors look for corroboration from other datasets.
The Market Backdrop: Why Monday’s Canadian Data Could Hit Harder
Three developments from the past few days set the stage:
- BoC held rates at 2.25% (Dec. 10) and communicated a “right level / ready to respond” posture, even as it acknowledged trade uncertainty and sectoral weakness. [25]
- CAD has strengthened, with Reuters reporting a third straight weekly gain and commentary that markets are leaning toward BoC “done cutting,” with talk of hikes appearing further out. [26]
- Trade surprised to the upside, with Canada posting a C$153 million surplus in September (first surplus in months), supporting the idea of some normalization in trade flows after disruption. [27]
Add in evidence of ongoing consumer price sensitivity—Reuters reported Dollarama raised its annual sales outlook as shoppers sought cheaper alternatives amid still-elevated living-cost pressures—and you get an economy that looks resilient in aggregates, but still uneven underneath. [28]
“If/Then” Scenarios: How the Data Could Move CAD and Rates
Scenario A: CPI prints hotter than expected
If headline CPI comes in closer to 2.3% y/y (or higher) and core measures don’t cool, markets may:
- reinforce the “BoC on hold for longer” view,
- nudge short-term yields higher,
- support CAD—especially if U.S. data the same day is neutral.
(Investors have been leaning into a divergence narrative already.) [29]
Scenario B: CPI matches the “steady” narrative
A result around 2.2% y/y with core stable-to-lower would:
- validate the current base case in bank previews,
- likely keep CAD moves contained unless the details (food/shelter/core) surprise,
- maintain focus on growth and trade sensitivity rather than immediate inflation fear. [30]
Scenario C: CPI undershoots and core cools materially
A downside CPI surprise would revive the debate about whether the BoC might have room to ease again later—though major forecasters like RBC are explicitly not expecting more cuts over the next year. [31]
Housing and manufacturing as confirmation tools
- Housing starts well above consensus would argue the rate-sensitive side of the economy is re-accelerating; a miss would signal caution. [32]
- Manufacturing weaker than the -1.1% advance estimate (or broad-based weakness) would reinforce trade/tariff fragility; a less-negative or positive surprise could soften those concerns. [33]
What Comes Next After Monday
Markets won’t have long to digest Monday’s CPI before the next potential catalyst: BoC Governor Tiff Macklem is scheduled to speak on Tuesday, December 16 (1:00 p.m. ET), followed by media availability (around 2:15 p.m. ET). [34]
That sequencing matters: CPI → next-day Governor remarks can amplify the market’s interpretation of inflation—especially if investors perceive the Bank as leaning more concerned (or more relaxed) than expected.
References
1. www.bankofcanada.ca, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.scotiabank.com, 4. www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca, 5. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 6. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 7. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 8. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 9. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 10. www.bankofcanada.ca, 11. www.rbc.com, 12. vancouver.citynews.ca, 13. www.rbc.com, 14. www.rbc.com, 15. www.statcan.gc.ca, 16. www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca, 17. www.cmegroup.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 20. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 21. www.bankofcanada.ca, 22. www.crea.ca, 23. www.scotiabank.com, 24. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 25. www.bankofcanada.ca, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.rbc.com, 31. www.rbc.com, 32. www.cmegroup.com, 33. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 34. www.bankofcanada.ca
