Canada’s economic calendar today is packed into a narrow early-morning window, with inflation, housing and manufacturing releases expected to steer the Canadian dollar, bond yields and interest-rate expectations into the week.
The headline event is Statistics Canada’s November Consumer Price Index (CPI), published this morning as part of a new Monday release cadence. [1] But before CPI hits, traders and economists are also parsing national MLS home sales data and scanning housing starts and manufacturing shipments for signals about growth momentum heading into year-end. [2]
Below is what’s on the Canada economic calendar today, what the latest news is saying, and how forecasters think the data could shape the Bank of Canada (BoC) narrative after last week’s policy hold.
Canada economic calendar today: key releases and times
All times are Eastern Time (ET).
- 5:00 a.m. — Canada MLS Home Sales (Nov) [3]
- 8:15 a.m. — Canada Housing Starts (Nov) [4]
- 8:30 a.m. — Canada CPI (Nov) [5]
- 8:30 a.m. — Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (Oct) [6]
Statistics Canada’s release schedule also flags several additional publications today at the standard 8:30 a.m. ET release time, including new motor vehicle registrations (Q3), the Construction Union Wage Rate Index, and a Traffic Flow Dashboard update. [7]
Breaking this morning: Canada home sales “holding steady” heading into 2026
The earliest market-moving Canadian print today arrived at 5:00 a.m. ET, when the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released its November housing update.
Key points from CREA’s release:
- National home sales slipped 0.6% month over month in November (seasonally adjusted). [8]
- The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) fell 0.4% m/m and was down 3.7% year over year. [9]
- The national average home price was $682,219, down 2.0% y/y. [10]
- Inventory rose to about 4.4 months, a level CREA described as “right on the long-term average.” [11]
Why it matters for the day ahead: housing is a major transmission channel for monetary policy in Canada, and the CREA snapshot lands just hours before housing starts and CPI. A steady (rather than sharply weakening) resale market can keep the spotlight on shelter inflation and whether the BoC can remain comfortably on hold.
The main event: Statistics Canada’s November CPI
What economists are looking for
Consensus expectations tracked by a Reuters poll point to headline inflation edging up to 2.3% year over year in November, a slight increase from October’s 2.2%. [12]
But not everyone expects an uptick. RBC Economics’ weekly preview argues Canada’s headline CPI likely held steady at 2.2%, stressing that energy inflation remains depressed because gasoline prices are still well below year-ago levels after the end of consumer carbon surcharges earlier in 2025. [13]
The “why” behind the forecasts
Forecasters are essentially balancing three forces:
- Gasoline and energy base effects
RBC points to gasoline prices rising moderately month to month in November but remaining meaningfully lower than a year earlier, keeping energy inflation “well below zero.” [14] - Food prices and shelter costs
October’s CPI backdrop showed grocery inflation still running above the headline pace (food purchased from stores +3.4% y/y in October). [15]
Shelter inflation has eased compared with the peak, but the housing pipeline (starts, construction costs, rents) keeps it central to the inflation story. - Core and “underlying” inflation
The BoC typically focuses on underlying measures (like CPI-trim and CPI-median), not only the headline. In October, Reuters reported core measures were still hovering around the upper part of the BoC’s comfort zone even as headline inflation cooled. [16]
Why today’s CPI matters more than usual
Two reasons:
- CPI timing has changed: Statistics Canada has shifted CPI publication to Mondays to provide more timely access. [17]
- The Bank of Canada is in “wait-and-watch” mode: On Dec. 10, 2025, Governor Tiff Macklem held the policy rate at 2.25%, saying inflation is close to target and the current rate is appropriate while the economy adjusts amid trade uncertainty. [18]
That puts extra weight on CPI surprises: a hotter-than-expected print could push markets to price in a more restrictive BoC stance (or at least a longer hold), while a downside surprise could reopen debate over whether additional easing might eventually return to the table in 2026.
Housing starts at 8:15 a.m.: a read on supply, rates, and construction momentum
Today’s calendar includes Canada Housing Starts (Nov) from CMHC at 8:15 a.m. ET. [19]
The most recent completed reading shown on major calendars was 232.8K (annualized) for October. [20]Forecast trackers referenced in today’s calendar coverage have looked for a rebound toward around 250K for November. [21]
What to watch in the release:
- Whether multi-unit starts continue to do most of the heavy lifting (a common pattern when affordability is strained).
- Whether higher financing costs and softer buyer sentiment are still limiting groundbreakings, even as policymakers keep pushing supply targets.
Even if housing starts surprise to the upside, investors will likely view a single month cautiously. Housing construction can be volatile, and the market will quickly pivot back to CPI at 8:30.
Manufacturing shipments at 8:30 a.m.: does the “flash” estimate hold?
Alongside CPI, Statistics Canada publishes the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (Oct) at 8:30 a.m. ET. [22]
The best clue heading into today is StatsCan’s advance indicator, released in late November, which estimated manufacturing sales fell 1.1% in October—with notable weakness in chemical and wood products. [23]
Why the factory data matters on a CPI day:
- It helps frame the growth side of the BoC’s balancing act. Slower factory sales can signal softer goods demand and weaker near-term GDP momentum.
- It also matters for tariff and trade uncertainty narratives. Recent Reuters reporting has highlighted how trade tensions have weighed on business activity indicators, particularly in manufacturing. [24]
If today’s official manufacturing report confirms the estimated pullback, markets may lean more heavily on CPI to judge whether price pressures are easing because demand is cooling—or because energy effects are masking stickier underlying inflation.
The full Statistics Canada slate today (beyond CPI)
While CPI and manufacturing are the headliners, StatsCan’s official release schedule for today (Dec. 15) also includes:
- New motor vehicle registrations (Q3 2025)
- Construction Union Wage Rate Index (June–Nov 2025)
- Traffic Flow Dashboard
All are listed for release today in The Daily schedule. [25]
These releases tend to be less “instant market movers” than CPI, but they can feed into broader themes: consumer durability demand (autos), wage-cost pressure in construction, and real-time activity proxies (traffic).
Bank of Canada lens: why today’s data could move rate expectations
The BoC’s Dec. 10 hold at 2.25% set the baseline: policymakers see inflation near target, the economy “resilient,” and the current rate appropriate—while staying alert to shocks, especially around trade policy. [26]
So today’s CPI reaction function is likely to look like this:
- If CPI runs hotter than expected (especially on core measures):
Markets may push back expectations for any future easing, and the Canadian dollar could strengthen on the view that the BoC will need to stay restrictive for longer. - If CPI runs cooler than expected (or core measures ease convincingly):
Investors could become more confident that inflation is converging sustainably to 2%, keeping the BoC firmly on hold—and potentially reviving longer-horizon easing debates if growth slows.
RBC’s preview makes the case that headline inflation could remain around 2.2%, with energy helping keep the top-line number contained even if underlying measures don’t fall quickly. [27] That framing—“headline calm, core sticky”—has been a recurring theme in Canada’s inflation story.
What’s next after today: Canada’s week-ahead calendar (Dec. 16–19)
If today is the opening act, the rest of the week continues to fill in the macro picture:
- Dec. 16: Job vacancies (Q3), urban public transit (Oct) [28]
- Dec. 17: International transactions in securities (Oct), population estimates (Q3) [29]
- Dec. 18: Payroll employment, earnings and hours + job vacancies (Oct), Employment Insurance (Oct) [30]
- Dec. 19: Retail trade (Oct), New Housing Price Index (Nov) [31]
Together, these releases help answer the big question investors are asking as 2025 ends: is Canada drifting into a softer patch that could justify eventual rate cuts, or holding up well enough that the BoC stays parked at 2.25% well into 2026?
Bottom line for the Canada economic calendar today
Canada’s economic calendar today is all about a tight early-morning sequence:
- housing market tone (MLS home sales),
- construction pipeline (housing starts),
- the inflation headline that matters most to the BoC (CPI), and
- a key growth input (manufacturing shipments).
With the BoC fresh off a rate hold and inflation near target, the market impact will likely hinge less on the fact that CPI is “around 2%” and more on whether underlying inflation pressures are truly cooling—and whether growth data is softening enough to change the central bank’s confidence in the current stance. [32]
References
1. www.statcan.gc.ca, 2. www.scotiabank.com, 3. www.scotiabank.com, 4. www.scotiabank.com, 5. www.scotiabank.com, 6. www.scotiabank.com, 7. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 8. www.globenewswire.com, 9. www.globenewswire.com, 10. www.globenewswire.com, 11. www.globenewswire.com, 12. www.barchart.com, 13. www.rbc.com, 14. www.rbc.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.statcan.gc.ca, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.litefinance.org, 22. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 23. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.rbc.com, 28. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 29. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 30. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 31. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 32. www.reuters.com
